SURE : A welcome lynchpin for a European unemployment re-insurance

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SOCIAL EUROPE POLICY PAPER NO 251 APRIL 2020 #SOLIDARITY #COVID-19 #HEALTH #EMPLOYMENT SUR A WELCO FOR E UNEMPL RE-INSU ▪ SOFIA FERNANDES Senior Research Fellow Jacques Delors Institute in Paris FRANK VANDENBROUCKE Professor at the University of Amsterdam & Advisor to This paper expands upon/ “The European Commission’s SURE initiative and euro area unemployment re-insurance” by Frank Vandenbroucke László Andor Roel Beetsma Brian Burgoon Georg Fischer Theresa Kuhn Chris Luigjes Francesco Nicoli VoxEU 6 April The authors would like thank Klervi Kerneïs for her work as research assistant Abstract On 9 EU finance ministers enlarged Eurogroup (with eight countries which are not members area) agreed least principle implement a pan-European support system national short-time schemes proposed Commission We will discuss relationship between this proposal idea unem- ployment re-insurance scheme also refers its communication on Rather than an “unemployment (re)insurance scheme” first-order effect is above all “job insurance explain why against backdrop sharp contraction caused public-health res- ponse COVID-19 pandemic collective type measure welcome urgent even though can only constitute one component much broader solidarity effort has some important virtues particular scale planned but we identify questions caveats that it raises Systems prevent lay-offs limited time cannot be solution combat Establishing step forward organisation does dispense us making progress towards fully-fledged should act lynchpin recap main economic political arguments favour implementation such stress notwithstanding sensitivities citizens regardless whether they live North or South “old” “new” Member States cross-border timeline short It quickly possible Failing eco- nomic social upheavals vital fight grow INTRODUCTION current health crisis biggest post-war period All Union (EU) facing challenge although have been affected same way As was case ten years ago with being put test played part adopting series measures since outbreak – including suspension stability pact States’ responses new tools limit duration economy companies workers Yet failure Council meeting 26 March instead providing ambitious response confirmed divides fuelled fears existential Against warned “the climate heads state government lack pose mortal danger Union” 1 agreement obtained joint coronavirus includes plan around €500 billion allows hope rise instrument view protecting jobs named “SURE” (temporary Support mitigate Unemployment Risks Emergency) grant financial assistance form loans granted favourable terms from when latter sudden increases their public expenditure preserve employment With firepower €100 total “second line defence supporting similar help protect thus employees self-employed risk loss income” 2 presented temporary emergency “European system” had propose end year advocated many experts essential complete architecture Economic Monetary (EMU) In fact nearly existing monetary unions true ‘insurance unions’: centralise management regard banks degree Historically exception aftermath started arguing EMU needs both Banking automatic fiscal stabilisers One options establishing suggested benefit level 3 Faced governments formulated second option: supports investment capacity hit cope reduced revenue increased spending benefits 4 share common insight wit play role times whilst simultaneously While no made regarding these proposals seems third variant generic namely union must confronted severe shocks However applies 1. Le manque de solidarité « mortel » pour l’Europe AFP 28 mars 2. Proposal Regulation establishment risks (SURE) following 3. Reflection deepening 31 May 2017 4. “New budgetary instruments stable within framework” Communication EP ECB December whole logic behind indeed applicable entire Single Market first return debate (part 1) then position 2) order avoid any misunderstan- ding our argument let alone EU’s crisis: massive intervention needed But risk-sharing domain parcel more encompassing relief Hence question what extent fits bill term how relates further unemploy- ment EUROPEAN UNEMPLOYMENT RE-INSURANCE: RATIONAL ARGUMENTS AND PUBLIC OPINION purchasing power downturn therefore stabiliser par excellence surprising key elements Existing either opt downright centralisation historically Canada Germany demand convergence provide need particularly high US combines decentralisation notably deep recession hits related legitimacy relevant endow (1 ) 5 addition while divided might popular hesitant Euro- pean leaders thought 1.1 From point rational policy option reason Two major stand out i) Without implemented ex ante functioning inher- ently fragile inherently fragility mainly due currently functions escalating trust so-called ‘sudden stops’ markets rely issue debt analysis developed Paul Grauwe lessons especially situation 5. ANDOR L 2016 “Towards shared area” IZA Journal Labor Studies vol n° 10 F “Automatic stabilizers model” Other document 22 September RAGOT X 2019 Civiliser le Capitalisme Crise du libéralisme européen et retour politique Paris: Fayard 6. DE GRAUWE P 2018 Economics Integration 12th edition Cambridge: Cambridge Press p 140 advantage pooling face asymmetric often (to interregional smoo- thing limits scale) effective organises smoothing able organise intertemporal Interregional combined 7 Moreover crucial set up (rather negotiated post hit) way: mere existence change expectations agents fall-out shock occurs nutshell leaving aside technicalities commitment means assured receive fund increase ii) matter concern stabilisation based incomplete there useful economically highly integrated trade production integration goes beyond compared well-known about ‘positive externalities’ vaccination National systems create positive externality: country properly insures itself helps neighbours stabi- lising consumer imports (similarly individuals who vaccinate themselves infectious diseases externality them too) Because just interest widespread practice effectiveness depends cluster principles: sufficiently generous benefits; sufficient coverage rates schemes; labour market segmentation leaves force poorly insured unemployment; proliferation relations into insurance; activation unemployed individuals; constitution buffers good so do bad Whether principles each State programme “vaccination instability” general contribute appropriate (think subsidisation authorities8) Conversely domestic could well become fortiori imperative equipped agree other’s if exchange guarantee function adequately 7. Regarding see DOLLS M An Re-Insurance Scheme Eurozone? Stabilizing Redistributive Effects EconPol Policy Report ifo Munich 8. theorem theory: insufficient sub-optimal provision promoted supported another 1.2 What think? Our previous section implies quality policies sharing intrinsically whereby former conditions premise development field gather Indeed broadly democratic reckoning initiatives survey experiment conducted focused aim 19 500 people thirteen were polled assess respondents judge different specific designs These varied minimum generosity education training programmes provided results show fundamental opposition confined small segment popula- tion contrary think listening over last strong North-South divisions reflected opinion Notwithstanding priorities surprisingly determined overall Box Avoid unnecessary Preserve companies’ human capital Limit severity Maintain households’ income Loans To cover costs creation extension other Up BILLION backed €25 guarantees voluntarily committed budget leverage 9. For in-depth discussion normative here Solidarity through Redistribution Insurance Incomes: Guide Guarantor Provider? Centre Paper No 2020/013 February 10. NICOLI insurance: really think” 13 BURGOON B KUHN T SACCHI S VAN DER DUIN D HEGEWALD “Risk Sharing When Hits: How Design Influences Citizen Risk (EURS)” AISSR PROTECTING EMPLOYMENT IN VIEW OF THE CURRENT CRISIS WHILE MAINTAINING MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK meets need: textbook use (2 Both volume appear few raised approach inevitably remedied creating genuine 3) 2.1 Short-time subsidy reductions number hours worked firms employers experience drops reduce employees’ laying off Employees proportional reduction (for overview table appendix) Lay-offs future hiring capa- cities networks maintained households Thus significantly mitigated Giupponi Landais11 convincingly work: context forms universal transfers efficient wage subsidies action very reasons mentioned apply (the without sta- bilisers; externalities adequate cf metaphor) gains Admittedly normal business cycle movements relatively disruption destroys matches supply chains large-scale economies external impact huge ‘vaccinating’ 2.2 characteristics responsibility aforementioned focus well-taken rather distinc- job meaningful labelled Nevertheless likely lower actual better ini- tiative promises significant (€100 billion) tackle There 11. GIUPPONI G LANDAIS C Building SURE’s firepower: three representing largest exceed €60 provides indication figure Over reached record €193 2010 EU-27 stood €174 If consider Spain Italy equal €58 fell €49 12 clear envisaged may costly (both because arrangements greater conventional measures’ scope application broad groups usually self-employed) data figures amount promised lockdown continue months additional funding probably necessary asset article 122 TFEU funded intergovernmental By using Stability Mechanism (ESM) avoids interference (divisive) ESM vehicle corona borrow directly markets; underlying close Financial Stabilisation (EFSM) almost double versus Another interesting feature introduces (cf supra combine smoothing) decision-making process adoption regulation creates requires qualified majority voting available take voluntary basis (no legal obligation under law) instrument’s (article regulation) Una- nimity required make financially operational “make available” according contributions “irrevocable unconditional guarantees” 11) account 25% (therefore allocated decided relative gross Although participation gua- rantee desirable credit rating perspective (in rates) veto ruled however clearly breach founded construction shoulder responsibilities ensure enjoys instrument; once place decision granting loan applicant 6) adopted upon 12. EUROSTAT ESSPROS viewed 2.3 SURE: short-term medium-term perspectives Having identified range core features having underscored now proposal; overcome First proposes grants soft preferable support: addresses immediate ensures low increasing rate own bond issues sharply levels little looming unsustainability those Second Landais list concrete guidelines best short- context: payments timely conditional retain eligibility extended replacement established non- sectors working hour flexible programme’s confinement highlight difficulty urgency deal hand legacies heterogeneous lose: hence understandable try impose detailed rightly measures: crisis” 14 learn practices guidance already said Discussing imposing imply delays afford longer mutual delineation conditionality maximally politically sustainable Third certain underscore Inevitably laid off: insu- rance laid-off ineligible bound given contracts sectors: renewed dismissed facto jure note lacunae precarious establish access whatever sector activity earn living Pillar Social Rights (EPSR) proclaimed (non-binding) Recommendation protection 2019; badly Implementing prominently roadmap 15 13. GUIPPOINI (op cit add incentivised 14. Questions answers 15. 8 November Fourth operated requests disbursement depend bilateral agreements discretionary effectively expec- tations entail automaticity 16 sense seen complement ‘normal’ adds ‘job insurance’ created exogenous disaster So conceived day ‘plug-in’ ready installed immediately exceptional emergencies CONCLUSION: TIME TO LOSE merely maximum i e helping self- employed give businesses soon reticent aware hesitations damage repaired At 16. Even publications effects decision-making); BALLEER GEHRKE LECHTHALER W MERKL Ch ‘Does save jobs? analysis’ Review Vol 84 pp 99-122 ; HOCHMUTH “Counteracting Crises: Non-Linear Short-Time Work Policy” Scandinavian 22/8/2019 APPENDIX Table Comparison SUPPORT GRANTED BY NATIONAL SHORT-TIME WORK SCHEMES MEASURES SELF-EMPLOYED Austria Compensation representing: *90% salaries EUR 700 *85% 685 *80% 370 *100% apprentices *Eligibility pro- gramme Belgium *70% salary supplemented lump-sum 63 per *Replacement 291 69 month (EUR 614 dependants) *Deferrals security repayments * Extension deadlines withholding taxes Bulgaria co-financed company n/a Czech Republic *60% quarantine stoppage operations *Between 60% 100% employ- ees experiencing problems sale volumes *Daily allowance CZK 424 (≈ 16) most days *Postponement insur- ance one-off 25 000 tax-free 930) Denmark *For salaried employees: compensation monthly 75% DKK 23 000) non-salaried 90% 500) *Self-employed freelance expe- riencing turnover 30% lost in- come 100 Estonia covered 150 paid *Exoneration advance tax payable quarter Finland Temporary entrepreneurs waiting period) France roughly 84% net minimum-wage *Lump-sum via corresponding turn- micro-entrepreneurs liberal professionals suffering drop subject adminis- trative closure difference accor- dance agreements) *Fixed Greece *Compensation 50% calculat- ed average two *EUR 800 *Social pension Hungary 70% compa- nies recording Ireland (tax-free) 410 week un- 350 *Ordinary Wage Guarantee Fund (CIGO): covers 80% *Extraordinary (CIGS): cov- ers *Solidarity contracts: wages work- ing CIGO CIGS ceiling Protection (INPS) 600 *An municipalities Covid-19 Latvia pay- ments Lithuania *Partial employee’s exceeding below 257 Luxem- bourg can- 250% *6-month moratorium taken Neth- erlands *22 5% *45% *Access *Monthly 050 (at married couples children) Poland *State 455) Portugal 66% 905 *Flexible *Possibility defer Romania sala- ry Slovakia *Allowance 540 Slovenia *40% cases majeure event guaranteed contribution mini- mum 220% *3-month mortgage *Suspension *Option postponing payment worked) penalty lines Sweden *Granting standardised sick pay Source: compiled OECD address Netherlands added ETUC briefing dated 24 entitled “Short Term Measures Across Europe” Croatia Cyprus Malta

Unemployment benefits and activation in federal welfare states: An institutional moral hazard perspective

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Regional & Federal Studies ISSN: 1359-7566 (Print) 1743-9434 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www tandfonline com/loi/frfs20 Unemployment benefits and activation in federal welfare states: An institutional moral hazard perspective Christiaan Luigjes Frank Vandenbroucke To cite this article: (2020): DOI: 10 1080/13597566 2020 1751127 link to https://doi org/10 Published online: 15 Apr Submit your article journal View related articles Crossmark data Full Terms Conditions of access use can be found at com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=frfs20 REGIONAL AND FEDERAL STUDIES benefits AISSR University Amsterdam Netherlands KEYWORDS Institutional hazard; multi-tiered states; intergovernmental relations; federalism; unemployment insurance; social assistance; active labour market policies Introduction Since the 1990s subnational1 governments have become more involved ‘regulation unemployment’ i e design implementation financing unemployment-related This trend is reorientation towards ‘active’ states specifically adoption Active Labor Market Policies (ALMPs) (Finn 2000; Sabatinelli 2010) There a growing literature on relations policy (Kazepov 2010; Obinger Leibfried Castles 2005; Van Berkel De Graaf Sirovátka 2011a) Intergovernmental tensions over burden- sharing regulation (Bonoli Trein 2016; Bonoli Natili 2019) coordination challenges (Øverbye et al are well-documented We analyze how decentralization weaken incentives for subnational minimize risk unemploy- ment either through lax federally financed CONTACT chrisluigjes@protonmail com Nieuwe Achtergracht 166 1018WV © Informa UK Limited trading as Taylor Francis Group benefit schemes or shifting caseloads from Such ‘institutional hazard’ goes beyond conflicts about ‘which government pays what’; it profound effects solidarity functioning In Section one we hypothesize that (IMH) affects hypothesis confirmed three case studies: Switzerland Belgium United States (US) (Section three) IMH these federations but its form remedies applied differ four develops general propositions factors influencing perception problem actual remedies: generosity insurance constitutional context autonomy interregional differences Also distinguish two types by control unemployment: those concern interpretation ‘insurance contracts’ fundamental regarding legiti- macy conclude formulating research agenda conceptualized federal-subnational against costs associated with unem- ployment If responsibilities regu- lation such negatively affect reduce ‘institutional’ emerges Our (A) (B) consequential division especially However issue has not been sys- tematically theorized Beyond deductively testing presence our primary aim inductive theory-building: develop explain variation intergo- vernmental respond by-product While past focused substance body addresses governance aspects including multilevel Leib- fried The sub- stance each other (Van Borghi 2007); substantive away passive income-replacement went hand-in-hand tendency decentralize Decentralizing thought increase their efficiency vis- à-vis central one-size-fits-all approach (López-Santana 2015 11) fits within broader introducing New Public Management (NPM) (Weishaupt NPM tools – perform- ance management help policy-makers coordinate between standar- dized logic administration individualized flexible delivering services (Karjalainen also result clashes interests Fiscal federalism shows sometimes engage opportunistic behaviour an attempt shift another level premised assumption ceteris paribus motivated desire relax own budget constraints (Weingast 2009 283) NPM- used steer changing Importantly zero-sum game; downward trans- fer counterintuitively stronger albeit indirect (Minas Wright 2012) Because inherent ambiguity processes will define con- ditions under which occur But before do must itself Moral ability insured party influence probability loss cost lower than expected gain (Barr 2012 92–93) frame analysis terms ‘moral because characterized risks Rather seeing mostly influenced macroeconomic paradigm emphasizes individ- ual’s responsibility find work (Dean 2007) From ALMPs mitigate individual-level pro- vided When responsible national bear fiscal conse- quences if (partly) financial situated focus forms 2 First ‘ineffective activation’ whereby meet expectations reduction second ‘dumping’ beneficiaries subnationally For necessary tasked particular 3 distinguishes adminis- trative political 14–16) Incen- tives ineffective arise when finances individual scheme while govern- ments activating instance ‘park’ grams little them get back Incentives dumping subna- tional fund encourage applicants apply instead Dumping way balance objectives ‘owning’ enhances legitimacy avoiding budgetary discusses ways try ensure compliance goals (Braun 2014 806; 2008 396) Inspired identify IMH: minimum requirements Insurance implies existence contract regulates pay-outs conditions Financial and/or structure make finance part sensitive outcomes might stop provide lump-sum block grants governments; decouples number Minimum codify responsibil- ities performance example oblige gov- ernment certain achieve targets degree ‘contract’ codified determines Admittedly metaphor limitations: entities pay specific identifiable premium’ return coverage cases test analyzing where relevant devolved governments: US developing affecting salience think decentralized unitary countries expect dynamic most pronounced reasons likely significant Second contrast competencies often constitutionally guaranteed cannot recentralize discretionary manner Øverbye (UI) American UI shared state all assistance (SA) therefore present short ‘most cases’ regard heterogeneity constituent units methods burden-sharing 4 These could possibility remedy extent challenge proposed represent North-American country non-EU European EU Member State By applying case-design whether holds different contexts maximize range policy-experiences draw lessons claims theory-building (Rohlfing 84–90) section attempts centralizing cantonal SA were relatively unsuccessful limited cantons able ‘dump’ programs discuss concerns perverse interactions designed (or ‘insured’) Activation administrative historically municipal Hence no incentive activate benefici- aries effectively 1995 following crisis started emphasize transferred municipalities had create new offices assumed intention was centralize man- agement standards enrollments seen too rigid subopti- mal (Duell 2010 51) Other proposals strengthen imposition output-based (Ehrler Sager 2011 162) Instead introduced relaxed measurement backed up (cantonal) peer-review system (Bertozzi Ross 146) Originally paired bonus/malus several questioned validity indicators underpinning element quietly dropped 15) very success- ful Currently legislation prescribes require- policy-behaviour broad stark strat- egies persist 146–148; Duell 49) lacks bite relies publishing reviews Unlike every respect Cantonal still diverse cerned fragmented nature necessarily same being concerned generated fragmentation led serve both Therefore prioritize caseload Furthermore grew Champion 9–11) since job cre- ation requalify actively assisted filing disability insur- even paid legal fees appeal dismissal 10) Between 1990 2003 nearly doubled size (Champion 124) interpreted Cantons perceived correct application law prompted centralization mid-2000s 14–15) met resistance Centralization ultimately proved limiting high; eventually stopped rising diminished urgency 16) opted collaboration themselves produced non-binding inter- guidelines did something harmonize limit per- verse utilized using activation-funds decided co-finance provided ben- eficiaries contributions capped 53–55) changed eligibility cri- teria 2004 largely preventing transfers 2016 609) Third tightened criteria support starting affected Swiss worried policy- makers address Despite strong successful protect- ing Moreover potential canto- nal however suc- cessful closing off conflict strengthening major changes occurred acti- vation recent reform relative lack respon- sibilities regional 1980s; yet charge monitoring job-search sanction- regions wanted ‘positive’ disconnected sanctions 1999 Verhofstadt launched ‘active state’ became salient disparities employment strategies they adopted ernments deeply Flemish nationalism increasingly fers Wallonia (Béland Lecours 2005 273) Brussels ‘a culture dependency’ 273); nationalists only ended splitting secur- ity Walloon argued comparatively high rates due exogenous circumstances deindus- trialization migration II negotiated federal-regional cooperation agreement based detailed resulted consistent effort intensified convergence organization (Vandenbroucke 60) agree- explicitly addressed via strict It established close-monitoring gradual sanctioning individuals Although considered ‘second-best solution’ 2007): ideally instruments punitive ones concentrated into effect decentra- lized activation: normative framework included transfer until then partly include again; accompanied gained compe- tencies treatment unemployed people remained prolonged indefinitely play marginal role co-insured least 50–65 percent rest organized funded left considerable Traditionally clients’ well- 2002 shifted discourse (De Bie Vandenbussche 2016) Nevertheless vague untouched Municipalities (Bogaerts Hermans 2005) Notwithstanding munici- pal co-financing there structural federal-municipal mission information concerning With took former regulating unchanged implement retain partial Even though may better equipped integrate overall (compared government) so Addition- ally common practice persons allowed times promoted regarded contrary polarized public debate far combination inter-municipal (via funding) entrenched fabric whilst inter-regional soli- darity controversial many years Belgian demonstrates importance versus reluctant restrict autonomy; first impact next 1996 Political federal-state imposes important parameters (e g generosity) set payroll tax employers trust funds taxes keep low possible pressure depleted steps prevent relying backstop loan repaid continues borrow year ‘penalty rates’ putting refill So principle mitigates penalty meant maintain ade- quate solvency penalties borrowing adapted 1983 Subsequently vast majority (non-binding) (GAO 10–12); during Great Recession 36 Additionally levels rise extraordinarily fast extends During previous extended maximum duration 26 99 weeks 5 Thus regain some increased restricted reduced state-level does Obama defined condition circumvented ending after free Again aimed efforts (Klerman 2013) economic stabilization function reliance funding dollars flowing legitimated stricter subsided consensus quickly dissipated residual targeted Before main program (Aid Families Dependent Children AFDC) implemented regulatory families children notably single mothers Benefits co- 50 almost 85 depending actors AFDC-case- loads At time agitation resonated (Haskins 2006 35) case- constraining AFDC transformed grant: Temporary Assist- Needy (TANF) legislated mandatory time-limits TANF dur- longer ‘the promise greater outlays dollars’ (Hoke 1998 120) politi- cal greatly expanded Initially shrunk enormously reductions levelled 2000 easily loop- holes (Germanis newfound enabled redirect grant supplant- existing expenditures 32) operated prerogative 2001 Bush substantially move overreach waged watered-down version initial proposal finally passed (Allard lot ‘slush fund’ 40 53) government’s State-run interact SA-adjacent AFDC/TANF Sup- plemental Security Income (SSI) early SSI exploded (Berkowitz DeWitt 2013 181–183) Caseload contributing factor (Kubik 2003) measures (Rogowski 2002) making difficult Over gains beneficiary evidence suggests continued (Wamhoff Wiseman 2006) interacts food stamps (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program SNAP) completely regulated (Moffitt 2015) A study finds portion savings cash replaced SNAP (Parolin Some issues noted reports appetite rather resolve involves sophisticated AFDC- transformation combines switch co-insur- seems unable there- fore closely guarded Discussion confirmed: reforms guise remedied differed summarize similarities formulate Similarities generous (Table 1); here domi- nant worries normal Table 1 Overview periods discussed Gross replacement Maximum Expenditure % Country Time period ratea GDPb (1995) Reform (1999– 30% 29–37% 104 0 9% 4–1 0% 2008) Cooperation (2003–2004) Sixth (2009–2011) Extended emergency (2008–2014) 42% Unlimited* 8% 37–38% 3–3 1% 23%** 4% Benefit average wagec GDPd Debate (2004–2008) Constitutional 21–28 6%** Unlimited 2–0 21–22 2%** 3–0 26.8 %** 5% AFDC-TANF (1995–1996) Not available No 3% reauthorization (2005) limit: 60 months aOECD tax-benefit database: (summary measure entitlements) gross earnings family situations durations 2007 bSOCX (10-7-1-1-1) 1990–2013 cOECD amounts head household + spouse percen- tage wage US: child aged 3–12 percentage Michigan dSOCX income maintenance (10-9-1-1-1/2/3/4 includes spending USA 1995: 10-5-1-1-1 10-7-1-1-2 1997-2012: 10-5-1-1-2 10-7-1-1-3 19 = missing) 1990–2012 *Contingent renewal authorities **Nearest 6 interesting fiercely politicized possibly received attention explained difference Another explanation structurally unequal Belgium: concomitant redistribution resisted Especially long prerogative: unconstitutional thwarted name state-led lations 7 subsequent modest drawn-out struggle And agreements unilateral dictates blematized varies Interactions prominent subject disputes closed pathways Similar gone uncontested unusual feature fact instrument protection: generally accepted cover- age proper universal Factors not) sensitivity 1) 8 increases effective higher 2) demonstrate ‘Owning’ why triggers governmental balanced tread lightly Partly Generosity Ungenerous Generous Low salience: Moderate High reflects realities constrained hard overcome chal- lenges vis-à-vis contentious matter shy illustrated Overall contention auton- omy less rely experience employ- contribute permanent redistributive transfers; undermines notion insurance-based chimes Trein’s expectation heterogeneous collective identities clear distinctions net-payers net-receivers (Trein 2019 6–7) differ- ences convey idea causal regardless accurate heightened turn push confront posit differs SA-related inclined pol- itical identified above benefits; having complex needs allow dealing 288; 2011b 241) local historical pedigree initiatives partially seem prefer limits allows contract’ Disentangling manifestation true inevitably liable fuels poor record emphasized emerge monitor Specifically argue (proposed) valid gage Whether constitute ‘interpretation’ acting spirit letter type arises imposed tract’ ‘overreach’ saw dictate debates put what viola- tion Conclusion increasing emphasis ten- dency resulting conceptualize contracts; tension unconcerned empha- sized explaining cases: Further- challenges: question tract; fundamentally reject authority regulate Further needed capacity Central faced probably findings ‘risk- sharing’ Monetary Union creation Eurozone re-insurance (European Commission 2017 25–26) dominated domestic would pooled across EMU [reference deleted review] benchmarking formance integration traditional core powers EU-level (Genschel Jachtenfuchs 2018) mix examined paper required feasible establish Euro- zone miti- gated degree: render impossible areas responsi- bilities long-term care elderly (Vabo (and how) domain 9 Notes 1. purposes ‘subnational’ refers elements 2. weak education icies involve bureaucratic developed direct politically 3. (López- Santana Once absolute branches institutions (intra- decentralization) non-governmental parties (delegation) principal-agent theories appropriate 4. See online appendix B comparison 5. refer Emergency Compensation 6. conditionality uncon- troversial crises 6) 7. clear-cut dichotomy choosing mutually exclusive 8. qualitative assessments 9. healthcare ‘risks’ materializing mainly curative; need take Disclosure Statement interest reported author(s) Funding supported Commission: [grant VC/2015/0006] References Allard S “The Changing Face Welfare Administration ” Publius: Federalism 37 (3): 304–332 Barr N Economics 5th ed York: Oxford Press Béland D “Nationalism Policy Development: Social 25 (2): 265–285 Berkowitz E L Welfare: Supplemental U Ithaca: Cornell Bertozzi F G Road Activation: Legal Aspects Implementation Outcomes Bringing Jobless Into Work? Experiences Schemes Europe edited W Eichhorst O Kaufman R Konle-Seidl 121–159 Berlin: Springer Verlag Bogaerts K I Marx Vandelannoote Mechelen Activering bij Werkloosheid en Recht op Maatschappelijke Integratie (Research Commissioned FOD Werkgelegenheid Arbeid Sociaal Overleg (BE)) Antwerp: Antwerp C “Federalism Work Switzerland: Development Fragmented 45 (1): 77–98 M P “A Federalist’s Dilemma: Trade-Offs Legitimacy Budget Responsibility Multi-Tiered 29 56–69 “Cost-shifting Multitiered States: Responding Rising Caseloads Germany 46 (4): 596–622 Braun “Federal Dynamics Times Economic Crisis Research 53 803–821 “Switzerland: Latecomer Catching Regulating Risk Unemployment: National Adaptations Post-Industrial Labour Markets J Clasen Clegg 121–141 Oxford: Dean H Ethics Welfare-to-Work Politics 34 573–589 “40 Jaar OCMW-Praktijk de Spanning Tussen Bijstand als Beleidsinstrument Grondrecht OCMW Wilde Cantillon 49–64 Leuven: ACCO Tergeist Bazant Cimper Paris: OECD Ehrler “Marketization System: Modes Governance Activate T 153–172 Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan Reflection Paper Deepening (COM(2017) 291) Finn “Welfare Work: Local Dimension 43–57 GAO Trust Funds: Long-Standing Financing Have Increased Insolvency (GAO-10-440) Washington DC: Government Accountability Office – Improved Oversight Eligibility Expansions Needed (GAO-12-670) Genschel 2018 “From Integration Core Powers: Refugee Theory Common 56 178–196 Germanis “TANF Broken! It’s Reform” Fix Problems Treat Symptoms” https://mlwiseman com/wp-content/uploads/ 2013/09/TANF-is-Broken 072515 pdf Failure Requirements 2015: Need “a much way” com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/The- Failure-of-TANF-Work-Requirements Haskins Inside Story Brookings Institution “De actieve welvaartsstaat werking een sociologische studie naar implementatie van het activeringsbeleid werkvloer vlaamse OCMW’s (PhD) Hoke “State Discretion Under Legislation: Illusion Reality Federalism-Based Challenge Stanford Law Review 9: 115–130 Karjalainen V “Actors Scaling Rescaling Policies: Towards Multilevel Y Kazepov 139– 174 Farnham: Ashgate Klerman “Unemployment Early 21st Century https://

Bestrijding van de werkloosheid: de bijdrage van Post-Keynesiaanse Economen

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“” 1 u h 1111 1_ v 01 clo S tu d ie k rin g W van Rijckeghem (red ) l’ o 11 H c y 111d i Ecc:u101nie 1111r/ ‘ 1t r /11 1’/ t () V II I/ 111 cl Il Ooay Fortma n 1110 ( 13 Goud zw aa rd piot A M de Roos p f Macro-econon1ie en politiek Bi jd ra : Driehuis J Duijn F E Klijn Milt enbur Moula ert U Rosenthal Va nde nb ro cke Vermaat Samsam Uitgeverij Alphen aan den Rijn/Brussel 1983 6 Bestrijding werkloosheid: bijdrage Post-Keynesiaanse economen FRANK MOULAERT /FRA NK VANDENBROUCKE* De titel dit hoofdstuk roept een reeks vragen op die we – conventiegetrouw kunnen verdelen in twee categorieën Primo welke theoretische post-Keynesiaan­ se leveren tot beter begrip crisis iich nu al bijna 10 jaar ontwikkelt? En secundo norma tieve meer praktische inbreng zij formulering economisch beleid ter bestrijding werkloosheid? In overeenstemming met deze ruime omvat hoofdituk grote delen: 1) “Analyse”: hierin beschrijven summiere wijze verschillende historische inzichten relevant zijn voor huidige We pleiten daar­ bij vooral betere synthese tussen vaak uiteenlopende benaderingen 2) “Taken”: meest belangrijke problemen onderzoeksterreinen professionele vandaag het licht enorme Bij voorbeeld werken één voorstel uit (arbeidsduurverkor­ ting) “Analyse” “Taken” uiteraard sterk elkaar ver­ bonden; eigenlijk zouden ze samenhangend geheel moeten rmen er ons bewust dat hier nog niet val is mate waarin beide delen uiteenlopen te­ nt taakspanning waar economie-beoefening ‘lf Met dank Paul Zeeuwts Miltenburg Walter Kcnnes hun commentaren 16 7 voorstaat Alhoewel opzet dus ambitieus kan lijken blijft resultaat beschei­ den: eerder tussentijds rapport dan defi­ nitief verslag Maar troosten gedachte misschien wel blijvende kenmerk vak zal blijven 6.1. Analyse economische Achtergronden crisis: overzicht poging afdeling proberen strengen verschil­ lende naar toe te halen hoop zo steviger koord maken om alter­ natief hangen verklaren ontstaan crisis-situatie door interactie ener­ zijds structureel onevenwicht wereldeconomie anderzijds institutionele instabiliteit Het gaat daarbij ontwikkelingen reeds gang kwamen jaren zestig A. Structurele etiket “structureel” gebruiken eer­ der enge zin sectoriële verdeling produktie inkomen bedrijfstaksgewijze groei Primaire versus industriële sector Een eerste ruwe vaststelling aanzienlijk deel haar oorsprong vindt oneven­ wichti gheden sectoren materi­ ele primaire sec­ tor bedoelen bepaald drastische verschui­ ving ruiltermen sinds 1972-73 kern probleem als volgt schetsen Continue stabiele vereist outputs industri­ gepaste proportie groeien principe zou prijsmechanisme via relatieve prijs (ruil­ voet) evenwicht garan­ deren é rvaring prijsscho mmelingen loop dez e eeuw heeft aangetoond prijsme­ chanisme hoogst onefficiënte regulator Eén aanleidingen depressie dertig was daling aantal pri­ maire produkten tengevolge kleinere vraag van- wereld overproduktie daarmee samenhangende inkomensverlies producenten leidde beurt uitvoerprodukten enzovoort ont­ wikkeling 1972-1973 net omgekeerd prijzen energie scherp stegen zoals derti eveneens reële deflatie wereldvlak Want zetten gestegen inkomens voldoende bestedingen N Kaldor (1976) wijt gezicht paradoxale ervaringen vóór­ oorlogse aan: uiteenlopend karakter prijsvormin (vraa aanbod speculatie sector; “administered prices” indus­ triële sector) asymmetrie reacties inkomensdaling res­ pectievelijk -stij ging inkomensstijging leidt toename bestedin gen gelijk dalin andere Ook juist hele ge­ heel beschouwen: verschillen treden deelsectoren gaan Belangrijk verandering 19 72-73 herschikkign betalingstekorten -overschotten deflatoire gevolgen hier­ worden verder behandeld dynamiek leidende bedrijfstakken concept “structureel onevenwicht” ook toe­ passing gedesaggregeerd niveau geleidelijke “uitputting” be­ drijfstakken (l eading sectors motor-sectoren) proces begon Tabel il­ lustreert beknopt Drie elementen komen voren: men duidelijk karakteristieke bedrijfs­ takken onderscheiden na-oorlogse periode merkelijk hoger groeiritme hadden gemiddelde (kolom duurzame con­ sumptiegoederen chemische speelden rol; 8 169 meeste landen trad 1963-1973 vertraging groeiritmes vergelijking explosieve Verder onderzoek toelaten subperiodes “levensc yclus” sleutelsectoren duiden toenemende verzadi­ (Van 1979); verschil tweede veel minder uitgesproken <"') "' r--- -CC-\0\C C""') i:: \C O'\CO r---1 1"'1 (lJ O'\ si ü 3 0c:: 0u C/l 171 Sommige stellen investe­ ringen R&D wijzigingen ondergaan door­ heen produktiecyclus gaande expansieve klemtoon kostenbesparingen standaardi­ satie rationalisatie Freeman (1979) idee schematisch mooi uitgewerkt elektronische Indien dergelijke mechanismen gelijktijdig schillende verklarende factoren arbeids­ besparend investeringen einde golden sixties schema figuur partiële verklaring bieden langdurig denken aangewezen onderzoeksterrein zo­ empirische problematiek leunt debat “pro­ ductivity slowdown” arbeidsproduktiviteit na 1973 vertraagd stijgingsritme ar­ beidsproduktiviteit evenwel hoog brede his­ torische (zie Maddison 1979 1980) verhouding b Rothwell Zegveld 20) Om duidelijkheid scheppen “productivity moet onderscheid Figuur Cumulatieve causaties vicieuze cirkel entry-barriers verlagen naarmate zich maturiteitsfase bevinden; relati eve verzadiging afzet- mark ten; aanbodcapaciteit overtreft bepaalde sleut elsectoren / potentiële arbeidsproduktiviteiten feite­ lijke (gemeten arbeidsproduktivitei tDe produktiviteit wordt gedefinieerd bereikt “nor­ male” bezetting produktiecapaciteit (d po­ tentiële produktieniveau) Ons inziens hierbij echter stati­ sche output dynamische gebruikelijke statische berekend ne­ gatieve cyclische impact onderbezetting capaciteit feitelijke schakelen negatieve effect lager-dan­ groeiritrnes arbeidsprodukti­ viteit uitschakelen negatief investeringsritme waardoor diffusieproces technologische innovaties wordt; “learning-by-doing” effect\;!n laag winstniveau arbeidsbesparend (rationalisatie arpeidsuitstoot versterkt macro­ economischeproblemen: trage stijging koopkracht overheidsdeficit bezuinigingen ‘-” öO’ D “”>’ O[) uQJ ;’ (/) E. 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EU Solidarity and Policy in Fighting Infectious Diseases: State of Play, Obstacles, Citizen Preferences and Ways Forward

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The Amsterdam Centre for European Studies SSRN Research Paper 2020/06 EU solidarity and policy in fighting infectious diseases: state of play obstacles citizen preferences ways forward Anniek de Ruijter Roel Beetsma Brian Burgoon Francesco Nicoli Frank Vandenbroucke 1 We thank Rita Baeten Hendrik Vos Jonathan Zeitlin helpful comments on an earlier version this paper we also Hannah van Kolfschooten putting together a preliminary overview the instruments are grateful to providing funding research This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4 0 International License © Beetsma* Burgoon** Nicoli*** Vandenbroucke**** 2020 Faculty Law University Studies; deruijter@uva nl *MN Chair Pension Economics School Amsterdam; Netspar; CEPR; CESifo; Fiscal Board; r m w j beetsma@uva **Faculty Social Sciences b burgoon@uva *** Ghent f nicoli@uva **** Professor i g vandenbroucke@uva www aces uva Abstract In confront role traditionally plays domain health with urgent need collective action triggered by corona virus pandemic face such crisis argue that joint procurement stockpiling allocation medical countermeasures key component true besides maintaining integrity Single Market present first results survey experiment taken before current citizens’ attitudes towards centralizing at level policies combat diseases which indicates considerable support conclude more robust framework substantial centralization warranted Keywords Covid-19 medicines Union JEL Codes: I10 I18 Introduction Since few weeks world has been throes outbreak COVID-19 At moment writing there have over 950 000 confirmed cases almost 50 deaths worldwide Healthcare systems completely overburdened while economic implications devastating Vaccines number one counter measure stop future outbreaks save human life And yet development dissemination just vaccines generally where political fights can be fiercest US government tried secure rights access EU-based vaccine developers through its legal financial power – flouting global regarding measures against Among other moves it reportedly sought buy companies based Germany building dossier expected centrally authorized June or July year Apparently prevented completion sale now working come up general strategy solution address kind challenge promote pooling resources risk incident might not last attempt any country party go alone thus disregard broader sense organizing societal counter-measure wider serious disease instance terms However focuses narrower aspect solidarity: within healthcare what best options regard medicinal counter-measures diseases? addresses question backdrop analysis informed public discuss ‘EU solidarity’ means Solidarity well-known principle national care guiding distribution rationalization goods involved recognized EU’s constellation although always tension between domestic internal market principles Second outline manner promises organize pandemics promise could from Treaty changes Lisbon amendments new regulation adopted after 2009 Swine Flu outbreak; nevertheless competences remain relatively limited even way proved difficult given significant hesitations Member States Third empirically report among representative sample 400 Dutch citizens (yielding 2400 judged packages) surveyed explores should respect conclusions emerging these three steps clear: good social arguments likely meaningful procuring allocating eliminates inefficiency associated excess demand supply co-existing various parts More importantly allows massive firepower instantly targeted wherever starts if well-organized ex ante secures credible commitments all cooperation needed post when hits 1. 1.1 Health law pertains area our shared risks opportunities related mortality 2 linked commitment help those do know exactly whom helping donation blood often cited as how context suffering driving force & Policy: Expansion Power Public Care (Oxford Press 2019) ‘The Impediment Laws’ Values Constitutional Setting EU’ TK Hervey Calum Alasdair Young Louise Bishop (eds) Handbook Policy (Edward Elgar 2017) Tamara K Jean V McHale Law: Themes Implications (Cambridge 2015) organization 3 Particularly emergency people keen out widely seen acceptable than self-help multifaceted bioethics long history;5 used particularly (as opposed care/medical care) justify interferences quarantines mandatory examinations vaccinations e enforcement authorities necessary understood 6 When comes resource forms value: here justifies mechanisms insurance redistribution planning rationing ensure services protect part welfare system 7 implementation notion equal preventive well ‘universal access’ 8 Universal each granted specific basket ensuring universal entails most ‘Implicit solidarity’: Catherine Waldby Robert Mitchell Tissue Economies: Blood Organs Cell Lines Late Capitalism (Duke 2006) 128 see Titmuss Richard Gift Relationship (Reissue): From Human (Policy 2018) A M Farrell ‘Is Still Good? Examining Politics Regulation Safety Union’ (2006) 14 Medical Review 155 Philipp Genschel Anton Hemerijck ‘Solidarity Europe’ (2018) 01 EUI Brief 5 Rob Houtepen Ruud ter Meulen ‘New Types Welfare State’ (2000) Analysis 329 There some discussion explanatory weight arrengements sharing burdens large scale Barbara Prainsack Alena Buyx Solidarity: Reflections Emerging Concept Bioethics (Nuffield Council 2011); Angus Dawson Marcel Verweij ‘Solidarity: Moral Need Clarification’ (2012) Ethics 1; ‘Understanding (With Little Help Your Friends) Response Verweij’ 206 But uses interstate relations carries less Lawrence O Gostin Lindsay F Wiley Thomas R Frieden Duty Restraint (3 edition California 2016); Howard Brody Eric N Avery ‘Medicine’s Treat Pandemic Illness: Vulnerability’ (2009) 39 Hastings Center Report 40 (2011) Biomedicine Beyond 7; Daniels Just Health: Meeting Needs Fairly 2008); Chris James William Savedoff ‘Risk Pooling Redistribution Care: An Emperical Attitudes toward Solidarity’ [2010] World (2010) Background No De (n 7) matter choices; choices democratic legitimacy entail age limits certain prevention programmes cancer mean experimental treatments alternative (social) benefits package networks choice particular providers achieved ‘budget model’ only provided constraints budgets inevitable waiting lists intricate politics economics 9 Indeed value reality protections ground very different Out-of-pocket costs Eastern Countries Greece vary 23 50% payments going down 12 15% Western Scandinavian 10 These health-system public- divergences well-documented organized largely State Medicines make about 25 percent average 11 across 1.2 Despite differences throughout Article TFEU outlines: WHO Europe ‘Strengthening Collaboration Improving Access Region EUR/RC67/11 67th Session Budapest Hungary -14 September 2017’ See quick Country Profiles Commission: https://ec europa eu/health/state/country_profiles_en Also Eurostat facts figures eu/eurostat/statistics- explained/index php/Health_in_the_European_Union_%E2%80%93_facts_and_figures OECD ‘Pharmaceutical spending (2018)’ ‘Council Conclusions Strengthening Balance Pharmaceutical Systems Its (17 2016)’ Department Price Scheme Eleventh Parliament February 2012 available October repealing 2119/98/EC [2013] 293/1 ‘Joint Procure Countermeasures’ applies (antivirals vaccines) (infusion pumps needles) ‘other goods’ mitigate treat laboratory tests diagnostic tools decontamination masks personal protective equipment 42 procedure contracting parties (Member decide join Commission) meet conditions affect constitute cause distortion competition; impact budget participating 43 detailed practical arrangements evaluation requests participation award contract applicable competent court hearing disputes 44 Importantly tender criteria governing amounts receive exact amount ordered may slower accordance 45 request derogation 46 faster donate acquired 47 ‘urgency’ joined Steering Committee ‘Medical procured Agreement’ SANCO C3 eu/health/sites/health/files/preparedness_response/docs/jpa_note_scope_en 43Article 5(3) 165(2) Financial 17(1) JPA 17(2) Each sets own distributive 48 representing half population 49 company Seqirus currently preparing procedures diphtheria anti-toxin Tuberculin BCG Personal Protective Equipment organising low example centralising effect done 51 processes 52 ministries contact emergencies indicated initiatives procurements eye respirators ventilators EMA investigating availability investigational therapeutics 53 ‘rescEU’ Belgium Croatia Cyprus Estonia France Ireland Malta Netherlands Portugal Slovakia Slovenia Spain ‘MEMO28/03/2019 Framework Contracts Vaccines’ eu/health/sites/health/files/preparedness_response/docs/ev_20190328_memo_e n press release 29-03-2020 eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/MEX_19_1891 launched four calls supplies (gloves surgical gowns) (personal respiratory equipment) (laboratory testing kits) (https://ec eu/info/live-work-travel-eu/health/coronavirus-response/public-health_en) ‘DG Summary 11th meeting Coronavirusdisease (COVID-19) (13 2020)’ Another route heading proper regime mandates 54 established depends willingness forces strengthened centralize capacities 55 funds pre-committed co-financed disposal efforts respond creates possibility operating parallel infrastructure 56 Here assume because implementing decisions “rescEU” contribute doubtful All needs mindful diverse realities purchasing powers absence intergovernmental nature inevitably bureaucratic manage generating speed delicate along process: think priority (e vaccine) cannot answer large-scale larger 192/53 (EU) 2019/420 amending 1313/2013/EU (OJ 77I 1–15) Par structure deployment urgency free-riding 2.3. export limitation crucial importance Communication published recently 57 coordinating actions scarce ‘channeled most’ 58 Thus vehicles whenever movements communicated 59 essential task mediated One restrictions exist prevent firms tendered started hoarding limiting suppliers’ interfere getting sees interrupting chains vital whole potentially prohibited reiterates exports Legally Central Bank (March 2020) Investment Eurogroup Coordinated response COM(2020) 112 page Serious Threats Repealing 5-11-2013)’ supra note solid reason want restrict authority proportionate non-discriminatory proportionality nature: [The be] appropriate achieve [health] adequate preventing occurrence aggravation shortages individual iteration novel addition instrument assumes usual interpretation integrative (and sovereignty domain) traded-off According outright proportionate; aimed reach suit Clearly juncto never serve Rather discriminatory allowed according regulate medicine severely undermined disrupt runs bans EU- wide arrangement chain let based’ scrutinizing whether fall infringement scare politicians having control stockpiles Commission’s creating pressure taskforce involves looking markets hence able leverage mere urgently 3. What medicines? exploring consider paucity well- questions designs unfamiliarity risk-pooling tendency express opinions matters socially desirable expressing thinking To shed light conducted original pilot project fiscal administered prior broadly respondents yielding packages Our explored purchases accessibility portion so-called conjoint asking judge pairings combined features hypothetical answers being were: (1) Do prefer range financially beneficial? (Possible answers: medicines; medicines); (2) lends pooled country’s contribution instead stanch epidemic spread? contribution; prioritizing spread); (3) EU-level national-level experts? experts; experts) issue judgment asked entire exhibiting combination choose randomly combine random (from dimension) approach evokes honest undesirable revealed evidence period reveals focus two basic patterns gave plurality opposition Figure below strongly garners cent ‘only’ (32 indifferent) significantly demographic sub-groups (younger versus older respondents; educated women) sign tentative command 1: Percent Respondents Supporting medicine-procurement perhaps interestingly showed showing predicted preference dimension inference dots capture prediction dark lines side depict interval 95% confidence Where entirety right vertical left likely) EU-procurement feature 2: Predicted Preference Features Change probability supporting (relative alternative) shows preferred indifferent agencies administer programmes: Focusing third ‘WHO ADMINISTERS?’ weakly administration baseline) statistically difference (note crosses line) tend covers swath medicines: focusing ‘FOR WHICH MEDICINES?’ includes coverage narrow Finally gives contagion: second ‘PRIORITY ACCESS’ 23% contagion traced contributions without Obviously overinterpret outcomes framing Moreover place described frame midst respondents’ shaped Given shortcomings decentralized become obvious centralized fallen Hence interpret experiment’s qualified view traction 4. suggestions effective potential guide degree ‘protectionism’ thrust CJEU opposite: considers breach words witnessing clash claims prerogatives’ ‘pan-European approach’ Across differ history culture ‘subsidiarity principle’ deviations carry inefficiencies exacerbate inequalities: ignores varying impacts spillovers yields end bad everyone If argument accepted give prove tangible Therefore initiative (which size volume) coincide suffice say steering unfettered empowered real safe words: today ‘negative’ (‘Don’t block your borders!’) ‘positive’ (together cooperative effort) legacy policy- makers domestic-centered equilibrium reluctance follow coupled pool transfer redistributive 61 suggests misguided Not better exists protected provisions; opinion poll majority prepared share quite remarkable skeptical European-level stabilization 62 plausible willing leaders paying lack pan- competing acquire imposing outcome suboptimal allocated circumstances infringements little short catastrophic tries itself hastening tragedy commons done? embedded efficient truly Regional Office “Challenges (2010)”; int/health_financing/documents/pooling/en/ similar vein Jaime Espin ‘WHO-Europe How Can Voluntary Improve Technologies Europe?’ sceptical though expressed (senior) servants Heijdra Aarden Hanson Dijk (2018 30) stable EMU require VoxEU legally possibilities unsolidary behavior 63 certainly becomes Funding levying separate proportion GDP demography elderly excluded relative effects weighed benefits? advantage off threatening negotiate lower prices Secondly managed longer co-exist Thirdly greater target emerge consequences responsible stock avoids deviate securing Costa-Font (2020) Europe’s failure ‘health citizenship’ argues favour socialeurope eu/europes- failure-to-address-covid-19-shows-the-need-for-a-european-health-citizenship His mainly governments differing responses hard motivate optimal Breaking away self-defeating reduces chances quell once 64 Ideally missed ‘ex ante’ solutions unthinkable normal times ‘Crises hit consumer excellent speeding ’65 debt ESM ex-post design requires centrally-controlled guidance expertise instructions Prevention Control easier laid emerges obviously unknown stages namely concentration victims containment swing define determine minimization lost casualties Ethical considerations determining Risk-sharing dealing step drastic lockdown local economy mostly borne containing enjoyed uneven cost-benefit trade-off distinguished maker 65 114 levels reluctant take Having compensate equalize return” doubt learned tragic hesitation making scientific ethical executive parliament hold account accountability parliaments delegation execution exerted analogous Eurozone monetary “technocratic experts” President ECB appears regularly hearings

SURE: un catalyseur bienvenu pour une réassurance chômage européenne

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EUROPE SOCIALE ET SOLIDAIRE POLICY PAPER NO 251 AVRIL 2020 #SOLIDARITÉ #COVID-19 #SANTÉ #CHÔMAGE SUR UN CATALYS BIENVENU P RÉASSURA EUROPÉEN ▪ SOFIA FERNANDES Chercheuse senior Institut Jacques Delors à Paris FRANK VANDENBROUCKE Professeur l’Université d’Amsterdam & Conseiller Cette note développe le texte de : Frank Vandenbroucke László Andor Roel Beetsma Brian Burgoon Georg Fischer Theresa Kuhn Chris Luigjes Francesco Nicoli The European Commission’s SURE initiative and euro area unemployment re-insurance VoxEU 6 avril Les auteurs remercient Klervi Kerneïs pour son travail d’assistante recherche Résumé Le 9 les ministres des finances l’UE réunis en Eurogroupe élargi (avec huit pays non membres la zone euro) ont trouvé un accord principe mettre place soutien paneuropéen aux régimes nationaux chômage partiel proposé par Commission européenne Nous discutons relation entre cette proposition et l’idée d’un système européen réassurance auquel fait également référence dans sa communication sur Plutôt qu’un « régime (ré)assurance » constitue avant tout compte tenu effet premier d’assurance emploi expliquons pourquoi contexte forte contraction provoquée réponse sanitaire pandémie du COVID-19 collectif ce type mesures est bienvenu urgent même si ne peut qu’être une composante d’un effort solidarité beaucoup plus large La a mérites importants notamment l’ampleur envisagé mais nous signalons aussi questions limites qu’elle soulève Des permettant d’éviter licenciements pendant certain temps peuvent être seule solution lutter contre mise avancée importante l’organisation elle dispense pas progresser vers part entière dont doit servir catalyseur rappelons principaux arguments économiques politiques faveur tel soulignons que dépit certaines sensibilités nationales citoyens européens qu’ils soient Nord ou Sud anciens nouveaux États sont favorables forme transfrontalière compté L’urgence œuvre vite possible au risque sinon d’accroître dommages sociaux qu’entraîne lutte vitale INTRODUCTION crise économique actuelle l’après-guerre Tous l’Union font face défi bien tous touchés manière Tout comme il y dix ans avec (UE) l’épreuve joué rôle adoptant ensemble depuis début – suspension pacte stabilité soutenir Etats proposant outils limiter durée l’économie ses entreprises travailleurs Mais l’échec Conseil 26 mars qui lieu d’apporter ambitieuse n’avait qu’affirmer clivages nourri crainte d’une nouvelle existentielle mis garde climat semble régner chefs d’État gouvernement manque [qui] courir danger mortel »[1] L’accord obtenu l’Eurogroupe commune coronavirus comprend plan d’environ 500 milliards d’euros permet d’espérer euro- péenne sera hauteur Dans figure nouvel instrument visant protéger emplois L’instrument été baptisé (temporary Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency ; temporaire l’atténuation risques situation d’urgence) pourra accorder assistance financière sous prêts accordés conditions lorsque ces derniers l’augmentation soudaine leurs dépenses publiques des- tinées préserver l’emploi Avec force frappe 100 total fera office deuxième ligne défense soutenant dispositifs similaires afin d’aider ainsi salariés indépendants perte revenus »1 présenté urgence avait prévu proposer fin d’année L’idée n’est défendue nombreux experts indispensable compléter l’archi- tecture monétaire (UEM) En lendemain valoir l’UEM besoin fois union bancaire stabilisateurs budgétaires automatiques De presque toutes unions monétaires existantes véritables d’assurance mesure où elles se contentent centraliser gestion concerne banques centralisent moins certaine l’assurance Historiquement d’exception niveau d’allocations chômage2 suggérée 2017 option doter capacité stabilisation macroéconomique Face gouvernements table négociations dispositif soutiendrait d’investissement public lorsqu’ils frappés doivent faire diminution recettes couplée augmentation matière 1. Proposition Règlement portant création d’urgence (SURE) suite COVID19 2 2. Document réflexion l’approfondissement 31 mai chômage3 Ces deux options fondées idée savoir stabili- sateurs jouer leur protégeant Alors qu’aucun progrès n’a réalisé propositions troisième variante générique qu’une agir lorsqu’elle confrontée chocs financiers graves Pourtant s’applique l’ensemble seulement logique justifiant s’impose marché unique reviendrons d’abord débat concernant systèmes d’allo- cations (partie 1) puis positionnerons 2) Pour éviter malentendu notre argument puisse principale encore intervention massive nécessaire partage domaine devrait partie intégrante secours globale Par conséquent question quelle adéquat court terme comment s’inscrit perspec- tive 1 RÉASSURANCE CHÔMAGE EUROPÉENNE ARGUMENTS RATIONNELS OPINION PUBLIQUE permettent pouvoir d’achat période ralentissement constituent donc stabilisateur automatique excellence Il surprenant soit l’un éléments clés stabilisa- teurs opté centralisation pure simple fut historiquement cas Canada Allemagne D’autres exigent convergence l’organisation prévoient degré besoins particulièrement C’est États-Unis combinent décentralisation récession profonde nécessité liés légitimité politique pertinents4 (1 ) alors affichent divisions l’idée dernière pourrait populaire dirigeants hésitants pensent 3. instruments stable cadre Communication PE BCE décembre 4. ANDOR L 2016 Towards shared insurance the IZA Journal of Labor Studies vol 5 n° 10 F modèle social Autre document 22 Septembre RAGOT X 2019 Civiliser Capitalisme Crise libéralisme retour Fayard 1.1 Arguments D’un point vue rationnelle raison pouvons identifier majeurs i) Sans ex ante fonctionnant intrinsèquement fragile fragilité s’explique essentiellement telle fonctionne actuellement très vulnérables vis-à-vis marchés ils financer dette publique L’analyse développée Paul Grauwe5 comporte leçons importantes bénéfice inhérent mutualisation asymétriques souvent principal (dans lissage interrégional limite ampleur) Toute- efficace permettre garantir veut dire émettre combinés crucial (et négocié post lorsqu’une frappé) choc existence modifier attentes agents retombées résumé laissant côté techniques l’engage- ment signifie assurés recevoir confrontés budgétaire fonds ii) Garantir disposent d’intérêt commun Bien basés UEM incomplète essentiels existe outre laquelle utile économiquement intégrés Ce basé l’intégration commerciale productive dépasse problématique comparé connus ‘externalités positives’ vaccination d’as- surance créent externalité positive s’assure correctement aide voisins stabilisant demande consommateurs importations (comme individus vaccinent maladies infectieuses) l’union moné- taire l’intérêt maladie infectieuse généralisée L’efficacité dépend principes allocations suffisamment généreuses taux couverture suffisants l’absence segmentation laisse population active mal assurée prolifération relations intégrées sécurité sociale l’activation chômeurs constitution réserves conjoncture favorable 5. DE GRAUWE 2018 Economics Monetary Integration 12th edition Cambridge: Cambridge University Press p 140 6. Sur voir DOLLS M An Re-Insurance Scheme for Eurozone? Stabilizing Redistributive Effects EconPol Policy Report ifo Institute Munich puissent Que partagés chaque profiterait s’agit programme l’instabilité relève L’argument qu’un contribuerait nationale adéquate (pensez subventionnement autorités publiques7) Inversement devenir fortiori impératifs lors sein accepteront difficilement mutuellement échange efficacement 1.2 ? Comme venons souligner qualité transfrontalier conditionnant second devant postulat fondamental développement recueillir suffisant8 essentiel toute évaluation démocratique initiatives Une enquête expérimentale menée s’est penchée L’objectif l’enquête 19 personnes résidant 13 interro- gées était d’évaluer chômage9 participants dû juger différents modèles spécifiques variaient termes générosité minimale devaient programmes d’éducation formation d’activation résultats montrent l’opposition fondamentale petit segment contrairement l’on penser écoutant sujet cours dernières années fortes Nord-Sud reflètent l’opinion qu’ils étonnam- déterminés global 7. théorème connu théorie ayant fourniture insuffisante sous-optimale s’il promu soutenu autre 8. discussion approfondie l’argument normatif jeu ici Solidarity through Redistribution Insurance Incomes: EU as Guide Guarantor or Provider? Amsterdam Centre Research Paper No 2020/013 février 9. NICOLI assurance qu’en vraiment paper BURGOON B KUHN T SACCHI S VAN DER DUIN D HEGEWALD Risk Sharing When Hits: How Design Influences Citizen For (EURS) AISSR Encadré bref Éviter inutiles Préserver production capital humain Limiter gravité l’économie Maintenir ménages Prêts octroyés Couvrir coûts extension d’autres mises Jusqu’à MILLIARDS € disposition adossés 25 garanties volontairement engagées budget l’UE démultiplier puissance PROTÉGER L’EMPLOI FACE À LA CRISE ACTUELLE TOUT EN GARDANT UNE PERSPECTIVE MOYEN TERME répond vraie sani- d’école recours (2 Tant volume l’architecture semblent adéquats quelques interrogations Néanmoins l’approche inévitablement auxquelles faudra remédier perspective véritable 3) 2.1 subvention réductions temporaires nombre d’heures travaillées touchées Cela employeurs connaissent baisses réduire heures licencier reçoivent l’État subven- tion proportionnelle réduction Ainsi d’embauche futurs réduits préservés revenu limitée cela contribue (Cf tableau résumant existants annexe) Giupponi Landais10 expliquent convaincante formes 10. GIUPPONI G LANDAIS C Building effective short-time work schemes crisis telles transferts universels efficient subventions salariales action collective forts motifs d’action mentionnés section précédente s’appliquent (la sans bud- gétaires externalités positives cf métaphore vaccination) tant qu’à gagne Certes mouvements normaux cycle transfrontalières pourraient relativement limitées perturbations détruisent grande échelle correspondances chaînes d’approvisionnement cer- taines économies l’impact externe énorme 2.2 caractéristiques responsabilité raisons mentionnées ci-dessus l’accent évitent pertinent plutôt «régime (ré) chômage» distinction chô- mage significative aurait pu l’étiqueter probablement vrai effectifs s’en sortiront mieux L’ampleur l’effort clé l’initiative promette d’aide important (100 d’euros) présente cependant trois représentant dépasser 60 mil- liards d’euros actuelles fournit indications évaluer montant Au globales atteint record 193 2010 27 s’élevaient 174 Si considère l’Espagne l’Italie somme égale 58 tombée 49 201711 évident envisagées coûteuses (à parce accordé élevé habituelles champ d’application compris groupes bénéficient normalement l’assurance certains indépendants) D’autre chiffres relatifs portent année illustrent promis confinement prolongeait mois financement supplémentaire serait Un atout majeur l’instrument l’article 122 TFUE financé qu’instrument communautaire intergouvernemental évitant d’avoir Mécanisme (MES) épargnée s’immiscer (qui divise) MES véhi- cule Covid-19 emprunter directement 11. EUROSTAT données ESSPROS consultées 7 sous-jacente proche fonctionnement (MESF) feu caractéristique intéressante qu’il introduit (cf supra combiner temps) L’un cet lié processus décision adoption l’adoption règlement crée nécessite vote majorité qualifiée disponible utilisé participer base volontaire (aucune obligation légale découlant droit com- munautaire) augmenter (article 12 SURE) L’unanimité requise rendre opérationnel financier (« selon règlement) contributions seront fournies irrévocables inconditionnelles 11) représenteront % (25 garan- ties allouer État établi relative chacun national brut participation hautement souhaitable notation crédit (afin d’in- térêt bas) veto exclu clairement contraire lequel fondé construction devront assumer responsabilités jouit d’exécution l’octroi prêt membre demandeur 6) adoptée 2.3 perspectives moyen Après avoir identifié série essentielles souligné identifions méritent Premièrement propose L’aide réduit préférable car problèmes trésorerie auxquels garantit bas indépendamment hausses obligations Toutefois évite niveaux contribueront guère diminuer imminent d’endettement insoutenable Deuxièmement Landais énumèrent lignes directrices concrètes meilleure actuel paiements devraient effectués subordonné l’obligation conserver l’éligibilité étendue remplacement généreux secteurs vitaux12 flexible couvrir pertinentes mettent lumière difficulté l’urgence D’une l’héritage hétérogènes n’y perdre essayer d’imposer détaillées autorise juste titre éventail couvrira l’extension réaction l’actuelle »13 tirer enseignements bonnes pratiques fournir orientations l’avons déjà dit discuter imposer impliquera retards Troisièmement soulignent Inévitablement licenciés c’est généreuse licenciées celles éligibles meurs appelé contrat déterminée impactés contrats renouvelés retrouvent ni facto jure générale lacunes précaires d’établir accès universel protection travail- secteur d’activité Socle droits (SEDS) proclamé recommandation (non contraignante) l’accès 201914 absolument L’application figurer parmi priorités feuille route Quatrièmement fonctionnera demandes versement l’aide dépendra d’accords bilatéraux discrétionnaire fonctionner fort d’automa- ticité 15 sens considéré complément normale ajoute spécifique créée catastrophe ampleur exogène conçu jour ajout immédiatement urgences exceptionnelles ceci 12. GUIPPOINI (op cit ajoutent vitaux encouragés 13. dénommé Questions réponses 14. Recommandation 8 novembre 15. Même publications automaticité (vis- à-vis effets limités décisions discrétionnaires) BALLEER A GEHRKE Lechthaler W MERKL Ch ‘Does save jobs? business analysis’ Economic Review May Vol 84 pp 99-122 HOCHMUTH Counteracting Crises: Non-Linear Short-Time Work Scandinavian 22/8/2019 CONCLUSION PAS TEMPS PERDRE n’est opportune qu’elle impact maximal c’est-à-dire aider empêcher autant renoncer activité l’accord rapidement n’y réticents conscients hésitations supplémentaires feront qu’accroître réparer Simultanément levier développe- ANNEXE Tableau Comparaison SOUTIEN ACCORDÉ PAR LES DISPOSITIFS NATIONAUX PARTIEL MESURES POUR TRAVAILLEURS INDÉPENDANTS Autriche Compensation *90 salaires inférieurs 700 EUR *85 685 *80 370 *100 apprentis *Eligibilité Belgique *70 salaire complété indemni- té forfaitaire 63 *Revenu 291 69 614 indépen- dants charge) *Ajournement remboursement crédits *Possibilité acomptes l’impôt Bulgarie maintenu cofinancé l’Etat l’entreprise n/a République Tchèque *60 cause quarantaine l’arrêt complet opérations l’en- treprise ordre *Entre d’entre- prises rencontrant d’approvision- nement baisse ventes *Indemnité journalière 424 CZK (≈ 16 EUR) maximum jours paiement cotisations sociales indemnité excep- tionnelle 000 imposable 930 Danemark *Pour compensation mensuel 75 plafonnée 23 DKK 3 non-salariés 90 *Les free- lance chiffre d’affaires supérieure 30 bénéficier perdus Estonie *70% précédent plafonné couvert indem- nité minimum 150 payée *Exonération charges dus trimestre Finlande * Eligibilité (temporaire délai) entrepre- neurs France environ net 4 SMIC *Compensation via correspondant pouvant aller jusqu’à 1500 indé- pendants micro-entrepreneurs profession- nels libéraux subissant faisant l’objet fermeture administrative différence due *90% (en fonction collectifs) Grèce 50 calculée moyenne précédents *Allocation 800 *Prise charge retraites autres impôts Hongrie salariale 70 entre- enregistrant pertes impor- tantes Irlande réserve imposable) 410 semaine allocation 350 versée Italie *Fonds ordinaire garantie (CIGO) couvre 80 extraordinaire (CIGS) *Contrats couvrent perdu CIGO CIGS plafond déterminé l’Institut 600 additionnelle euros communes Lettonie Lituanie partielle l’employé dépassant n’allant deçà *Aide 257 acquittés Luxem- bourg inférieure 250 *Délai professionnels Pays-Bas *22 *45 intégrale entrepreneurs *Accès mensuelle 050 (au couples mariés enfants) Pologne *Subvention 455 Portugal 66 905 *Plus flexibilité accordée reporter prélèvement source Roumanie d’au Slovaquie allant 540 Slovénie *40 majeure garanti Espagne dessous au-dessus 220 sa- laire exceptionnelle hypothécaires *Suspension frais (sur travaillés) Extension Suède *Octroi congé 14 Source partir l’OCDE disponibles l’adresse suivante

De actieve welvaartsstaat. Een Europees perspectief, Den Uyl-lezing

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De Den Uyl-lezing vindt eenmaal per jaar plJals l’l1 wordt georganiseerd onder verantwoordelijkheid vJn de onafhankelijke Stichting ‘Or J M den Uyl-lezing’ FRANK VANDENBROUCKE l Frank Vandenbroucke is in 1955 te Leuven (België) geboren Hij studeerde economische wetenschappen en CJmbriclgc Op 30-jarige leeftijd werd volksvertegenwoor·cliger vier later ook voorzitter van Social istische Partij In 1994 1995 was hij vice-premier minister Buitenlandse Zaken verJjet Kamer Volksvertegenwoordigers september 1996 om een doctoraatsthesis schrijven aan Universiteit Oxford op het terrein sociale filosofie lijsttrekker SP voor Europese Parlement maar speelde centrale rol totstandkoming paars-groene kabinet vervolgens gevraagd Sociale Pensioenen worden Uitgave: Sticl1ting’D1· Deze uitgave mede mogelijk gemaakt door· WeekbladpersTijdschr·iften / Vrij Nederland VIIIJ NmDBRLAND ‘Dr 13 december 1999 ‘De actieve welvaartsstaat: Europees perspectief’ Met introductie D Wolfson INTRODUCTIE Het mag dan waar zijn dat goede buur beter verre vrie nd beste natuurlijk als man En omdat nagedachtenis Joop Uyl alleen goed genoeg hebben we vandaag Vand enbro uck e Dat mijn inl eiding dames heren Zo’n minuut of vijf er tegen mij gezegd daarom toch nog ee n to eg ift ten behoeve die genen bladzijden krant leze ucke niet voorkomt bijdrage laatste Jaarboek Demo cratisch Socialisme over hoofd heb­ ben gezien eco noom opgeleid dri oudste beroemdst universit eit Euro pa: Leuv (ouder Leiden) Cambridge kan dus al m r stuk Ik begin daa rmee vooraanstaand politi cus tijd denker intellec tu ­ eel gebleve met hang naar fil o sofische net Joop; zo blij ik gestreeld hem eiden ogen hee ft enb rou cke droom ca rri ere gemaakt: na lice nti aat geboortestad blee f daar twee werken Centrum Eco nomische Studi ën Dàt wisse ld weer af onderzoe k 19 82 Mast ersgraad haalde daarna po liti eke loopbaan beg innen bij stud ie dienst onze Belgische zuster par tij 8 5 vo ksvertegenwo ordiger slaat politieke succe s toe: tijvoorzitt 1 9 89-1 994 ; Vice-Ee rste Mini ster (nik geen premie r: Be lgië tenmin ste gesproken) inister Buit enlands -1 995; fractieleid 199 5-1 996 vanaf deze zomer Minist So ciale Pensioe nen paars -groene kabin t wat deed 997? nu juist fascinerend; schr diep gravend origineel indrukwekkend proefschrift inmidd els succ es verd edigd heeft tit l: Soc ial justice and indi vidual thics an open socie y Equ alit responsibility incentiv nee mt enbrouc ke enige afstand Amerikaanse links-liberale filosoof John Raw ls discussie rechtvaardigheid twintig gedomi neerd sterk geïnspireerd betoogt nadruk Rawl legt str uctuur regel ongelijkhede allee gerechtvaard igd zij uit indelijk belang minst bedeeld wel noodzak elijke voldo ende voorwaard rechtvaardige samenleving Zij behoeft aanvulling “ethiek dagelijks gedrag” noemt ethie hçe grondgedacht mens nie acht ergesteld mogen word grond persoonskenm erken standigheden ze greep “M ensen allen ·gelijk hun kennen kunnen beleving nut inkom on tlen behoeften inspanning offers zich getroosten [ ] Alle mensen gelijkwaar­ dig” kabinet-D 1975 Inter im -not a Inkom ensb eleid (Tweede Kam zitting 1974 975 399 nrs -2 blz 6) Van cle nbro geeft hand voeten inzic ht dubbe le thische eis: gemeenschap volstaan schep­ pen gelijke startkansen moet kans midde len geven eigen verantwoord elijkheid nemen posit ve rbeteren; meer gelijk resultaat; rzijd indivi du Vancle nbrouck ethiek elijkh eid gehoud mee optimal maatschapp elijk partic ipati Zijn social filosofi benadru kt samenhang tussen drie trefw oorden ondertitel proefschrift: Equality Responsibilit Incentives zei houden tenminste taal lezing volgt waarschuwt Vanclenbroucke traditionele welvaar tsstaat ui tkeringen biedt uitw gen sluit ma ar in: laat volwaardig ticipe­ ren zie essenti sociaal -democrati Te rwijl libe ralen marktdenken tot participatie geleid ligt ons andersom zegt hij: volwaardige zinvolle maatschappelijke parti­ cipati staat voorop; wij willen niemand kant markt daarbij nuttig zelfs nodig clan gebruiken ins tr um ent do el heb verhaal rode oortjes gelezen werden roder: bloedro od Bij buren bloeit ide­ olo gisch debat zult u horen Daar beetje jalo ers want lopen sta hie ok knagend vraag ? Socia filosof economie discip lin nb rouc elkaar rband brengt wetenschappelijk werk teve ns inspiratiebronnen politicus doord esemen Uyl- lezin g vertelde me grote lijnen spoort eerste versie had toegestuurd Weet trou­ wens hoe heet België zo’n conce pt?: sne uv elver sie: 4 DE ACTIEVE WELVAARTSSTAAT: EEN EUROPEES PERSPECTIEF “Het onvermind erd taak democratische socialist keuze toekomst duid maken onverschil l9i ef ma9r breed smal keus stemmin9 macht verwerven Dan leid zicht zic ” ‘ INLEIDING sociaal-democratie Europa Als je natelt vaak socio lo politicologen haar dood aangekondigd tij­ dens voorbije dertig hele prestati Jawel zeggen cy nisc he geesten: derdaad pr estatie sociaal-de mo­ crati gedaan Ze zichzelf verloo c hend gewoon pro­ jec anderen overgeno men O ptimisten ntegen zullen bewe­ soc iaal-democratie eigentijds pro ject uim groep Eu ro pese kieze rs tuigd cyn ic i ongelijk bedo eling zing bewijzen optimi sten moete h echt hoeden voo rbarig naïef optimism promin aanw ezigheid sociaal-democrat zoveel deel gevolg neder laag name mislukking har neol ib ralis jaren 80 slijt age beleid kanse li Kohl failliet iberalisme io mfant doen – wie mfa­ lis nooit zond gevaren Dus kies prozaïsche invalsh oek ( 978) Uitz icht Opstellen Economische Politiek A msterd am: Uitgever ij rt Bakke 6 7 terugk produ ct nieuwe tijdgeest waarin bekomm ern issen gedijen toevallige samenloop polit conjuncturen fragie gegeven Toch daardoor geziene waaie mogelijkheden opengeklapt krijgt -democrat enor­ veran twoorde lijkheid schouders wil beantwoor luidt volgt: mogelijkh eden vullen zorgen elij kheid worden? zal daarbi j beperke iale litie wi doelst ellin9 acti eve Daarna stilstaan meth ode: vastleggen doe lstellingen pees vlak onderling toetsen prak­ tijken overeengekom doelstellin bere iken WELVAARTSSTATEN IN ADEMNOOD welvaartsstaat botst feiten voldoen bekend: vergrijzing bevolking ver vrouwelijking beid smar individu aliser ing omschakeling industr ië­ infor mationele nsteneconomie Tegenover neutr aal staan dikwijls positief Maar vereisen stelselmat ige aanpa ssingen chitectuu vergr ijzin bre ngt middel moeten ed trad it ionele ter rein zeke rh pensioenen ziekteverzekering leidt groeiende afhankelijkheid verzorgingsstaat gewicht ‘inac­ tieven’ opzichte ‘acti even’ door veroudering toenee statist isch vaststaand feit ontstaat nieuw risico: langduri ge afhank zorg gr oeie nde alise Chro ziektes zoa Alzheimer spelen daarin toenemend Of derg getroffen zeer radicale gevolgen ongelijkheid getr of­ fe dram atisch vro uw elijking beidsmarkt positi tradition ele doelstelling schuift weg volledige tewerkstelling vroeger mees landen nagestreefd betaalde tewer kstel­ mannen vrouwen hield verband a­ d itio nele kostwinner smode vele tsstate hant eerden werkgelegenheid voorop llen lle lledig betaald werkgelegenh mann vrouw Zelfs vand aag ooit ticiperen arbeidsmarkt (wat tegenstelling wijdverspreid misverst geval is) veel moeilijker geworden lled werkgelegen­ heid mak bestaande takenpakk et tssta at eist heel Er komen taken antwoord behoefte gezin arbeid vor ming combine afdoende elijkin armo ede Die ander wijt steeds onvoltoo ide emancipatie onbelangrij onvo ltooi­ binnen duidelijk verh oogde risico kom overgang postindustr iële maatsc happij overst ijgt ruim problematiek kwestie waarmee geconfronteerd betekenisvol hoger isic maatschap pelijke uitsluitin lage geschoolde Dit stat tische rmen voors pelbaar isico gaat Hie schie receptenbo ek welva rtsstaat kort Nie ud erdom ongeval ziekt evenmin co n­ jun cturele inzinking vero orzaken sluitin belangrijkste oorzaak “nieuwe eise oductieve verande­ gehandica pten” 3 • uitkering tweg We mate rië troost kansen Kort terwij ambiti groter vragen dr uitd agingen tsst ade mnood brengen ‘adem nood gem eten nvo udig afhankelijkh eidsr atio’ dit verhouding aantal ina tieven uitk ering 1970 waren ongeveer vee werkenden éé persoon uitker Nu één Sterk vereenvoudi gend helft toegenom afhan kelijkheid werkloosheid pensione- ring gebru baro meter vergt nuancer beeld vaste ‘betalers tegenov ‘on tvangers’ mislei­ omd so mm ene andere schui ven ug beide categor ieën bin dezelfde gezinnen rk tt em tend ens groeiend blijven doorz ett meest geciteerde reden eco­ draagkracht bescherming druk komt waarom groeie elijkheidsratio aanleidin fundam entele vragen: ingen bete kent meerd min­ dere mat socia kwetsbaarh Ee kwetsbaar­ nver mijdb aar ouder wordende Een dee zou meden kunn vermind Afhankelijkheid betekent ontzegd wor­ den: actie ticip eren samen leving mete adem hedendaagse significante stelselmatige mind moede land kenmerkte tijdens jare ’70 ’80 lijkt stil­ gevallen gezondheidszorg vroege geconfront rd financiële probl emen patiënten pi jnlijke belei dsk euzes beschikbar midd elen ouding uwe schaar ser worde alles aanl overdr even pessimisme: tekenen versti kking inzicht oorzake wijst remedie Z hiero Canti llon B 9) Vrouw en-arm oede: prijs onvolt ooi­ eman cipat ie” Ca ntill red ) keri n9 Kap ellen : Pelckman Don zelot 996) Lavenir social” Esprit Mar 58-8 10 11 ÜE WELVAARTSSTAAT grenzen bereikt hertekenen blauwdruk naam geven: Vanzelfsprekend evolu socia­ realit geleidelijk geleide lijk plaats oude oriëntatie is: ‘verstandig actieve’ streeft ‘actieve samenleving’ zonder ambi ti lvaar ts­ adequat e_ b esc herm Inde rdaad adit zekere zin passief Eerst mo voordoen pas spannen inste llin­ vangnet anders aanpakken inkomenszekerheid maat­ schappelijke ticipati zodat le­ ving aspiratie nderste lt -act ief grotere klemtoon inv esteren maatwerk verschillende spelers terr ein Act iverin vanzelfsprekend sleutelwoord Mec hanis huidige zekerheidssysteem ontmoedigen aanmoedigen actief opgeheven bijgestuurd inac tiviteitsval vormt werkt bovendien pro-actief gewacht opduikt accent gelegd eventi mog precies aanta risico’s voorspelbaar ver­ zorging blijft onmisbaar bredere aanpak ‘voorzorg’ ’n azorg’ snel moge onafhankelijk verzorging erkent individuele kwetsbaarheid tegelijk onderstreept vermeden Toenemende elijk­ natuurw socio-economische veran­ deringen beur vatbaar ‘hum aan’ ingr ijp Naast uitkeringen investeringen bijvoorbeeld vorming opleiding naast wer kvloer derde kenm erk leveren lst ellin ealis Want voor- nazorg doeltreffend Maatwerk houdt middelen zomaar br eedte uitg esmeerd politiek misschie idelijk noodzakelijk Maatw doel gro epen doelstellingen zorgvuldig ete geïdentificeerd bele id gaan ‘op lijf geschreven’ nder st elt afvragen bestaand structuren geschikt bleem ssen omgekeerd bege­ iding maa twerk daaro syno etsen ndition vidu slotte herwaa rderen diegenen meeste kennis vierde dir igeert delegee Geen lout bevelend overheid auton ome instellingen oriënteert doo e­ digen wenselijke richtingen kiezen erkenn toewij­ zen verantwo ordelijkheden wezenlijk taalt zowel financie (ook werkgevers vakbonden) verzekeraars zorgaanb ggen onmidd ellijke ‘ambtshalve’ corr ectie budg etoverschrij­ dingen voorbeeld esponsabilisering aanbieders aanspreken kwaliteit Niet hen leggen wer­ ken overeenkomstig wetenschappelijke inzichten beroepsgroep ontwi kkeld decreteren 12 medische praktijk kader aanbieden aandacht onve rbidd geleverde Ook engage ment alle llingen Zekerheid (in Belgisch Nederlands) responsabiliseren hier krijgen bestuur lijke autonomie ruil resultaatverbint enis Mee belangr ijk method belangrijk cri­ terium bepalen echtvaardig straks gebreid terug belangrijke punt ’s tar tbanen jonger egering onlangs voorgesteld daaraan voorafgaande illus­ tratie alg’rmene cipes schetste som­ mige schoolverlaters eerst verkom meren vooraleer langdur erkend sneller extr zes maand verlaten schoolbanken kr ijgen jongeren baan aange­ boden preventief activerend Werkgever verplicht aangespoord klassieke ‘stages’ school­ verlaters igism prikk zoals laste nve rlag sti jgt risicog evo elige jong Bove ndi rken startbanen maatw doelgroep gediversifieerd verfijnd sub regionaal niveau laatst logisc onderdeel fundament evoluti Sommige praktische aspecten werkgelegenheidsbeleid gedecen­ tralisee lokal nivea bijvoo rbeeld stadsgewesten Door gepersonaliseerd stimulerend invest hopen ric htsno vóór maanden verst erkt passen arbeidsma rkt ziekteverze­ ker maat elijker chronisch zieken verbet vereist geïnte­ greerde zorgpaketten aangepast specifieke pathologieën Ve rzorging haaks traditie ziektever- zekering finan ciering allerlei ‘b eschott en’ ingebouwd (tussen financi prestaties tsen verplegenden medicijnen ligda ziekenhuizen enzo­ voort) waardoor continuït rzorg onderlinge samen­ werking zorgverleners integratie zorgtaken enke­ wijze aangemoedigd verduidelijken Mucovis cidose taaislijmziekt ongeneeslijke ziekte kinderen geboorte treft ervan kind leve nskwalit levensverwa chting ontzettend ouders belasting groot enor vooruitgang geboekt behandeling effec nsverwa voorbij adolescentie reikt Technisch eind verder dankzij int ensieve deskundigheidsontwikkeling vakgebieden hamvraag voudige technische deskundigheid egreren venslange zelfzorg oud door­ slaggevend 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WELKE VERANTWOORDELIJKHEID? stellen eers gezicht overbodig lijkt: zouden streven samenleving? naïeve ec hter allesbehalve onschuldig Waarom parti e? rst macro -eco boek­ houd (met geweten) demogr afische evolutie ctie­ actieven toenemen gevat: bevord beidspa subst ituu armoedebestrijding ensherve rdeling Uit gegevens lve Marx syste tisch kaart gebracht blijkt neens armoede Vere nigd Koninkrijk Verenigde Staten langer act ieve Anderzijds Denemarken ebreide weten rijm hoge par­ atiegraad bescher kwesti ‘èn-èn’ kw estie ‘a ls-clan evenm ‘o f-o overv loede volgende grafiek: Figu Tewerkstelling Bron: arx “Low Pay poverty OECD Count ries” Em ployment Audit winter 25 VSA gemiddelde inactieve loon stand gehouden lasten­ laten stijgen Wie peil 20 · ali VK Spanje Q vergelijking lon en) lastendru verhogen “‘ Austra lië• •Canada scheeftrekking ratio tegengaan argu 0 Fran krijk Duit•s Zweden probleemloos ikt liberalen soci­ Nederlan Zouden helemaa activiteitsgraad (zoals indien demografisch verschuiv was? 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The European Commission’s SURE initiative and euro area unemployment re-insurance

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The European Commission’s SURE initiative and euro area unemployment re-insurance Frank Vandenbroucke László Andor Roel Beetsma Brian Burgoon Georg Fischer Theresa Kuhn Chris Luigjes Francesco Nicoli (*) ABSTRACT: Commission proposes a pan-European support for short-time work arrangements (SURE) This column discusses the relationship between this proposal idea of scheme to which also refers in its Communication on We sketch merits signal some caveats Nearly all existing monetary unions are true ‘insurance unions’ They not only centralise risk management with regard banks; they at least degree insurance Historically Economic Monetary Union (EMU) was one exception: In aftermath Eurozone crisis started arguing that EMU needs both fully-fledged Banking automatic fiscal stabilisers One options establishing suggested by would be national benefit schemes level Another option formulated 2017 supports Member States’ public investment capacity when hit have cope reduced revenue increased spending benefits (European 2017a 2017b) fact share common insight wit it is should play their role times whilst simultaneously protecting Alas no progress has been made implementation such proposals Today triggered economic fall-out COVID- 19 pandemic launches what seems third variant same generic union must act as an confronted severe or financial shocks: new instrument labelled (temporary Support mitigate Unemployment Risks Emergency) will provide assistance form loans granted favourable terms from EU States up €100 billion total These assist address sudden increases expenditure preserve employment Specifically these help cover costs directly related creation extension short- time other similar measures put place self-employed response current 2020) communication adds “this temporary seen emergency operationalisation Re-insurance Scheme specific context COVID-19 without prejudice possible subsequent establishment permanent under different legal basis TFEU ” 2020 p 3) first return debate (indicating passing might more popular than many hesitant leaders thought) then position within broader order avoid any misunderstanding our argument can main component – let alone EU’s corona-crisis: much massive intervention needed But risk-sharing domain part parcel encompassing relief Hence question extent fits bill how relates further re- envisaged re-insurance: rational arguments opinion reference debates about happenstance purchasing power citizens downturn therefore stabiliser par excellence Existing either opt downright centralisation (as historically case Canada Germany) demand convergence organisation need really high US combine decentralisation notably deep recession hits) Both political legitimacy relevant (Andor 2016) From point view policy reason First inherently fragile rehearse ‘fragility argument’ (De Grauwe 2018 pp 140-141) but aspect underlying analysis important situation While advantage pooling face asymmetric shocks often (with interregional smoothing shocks) there quite broad consensus effective organizes able organize intertemporal issue debt Interregional combined Next crucial system set ex ante (rather negotiated post hit) functions way: mere existence change expectations agents shock occurs nutshell leaving aside technicalities commitment means assured receive budgetary fund increase fragility-argument key However addition second why useful countries economically highly integrated compared well-known vaccination National systems create positive externality: country properly insures itself helps neighbours individuals do vaccinate themselves against infectious diseases) Because externality matter concern members dispose stabilisation Simultaneously good insufficient sub-optimal provision if promoted supported way (think again authorities and/or compulsory) effectiveness depends whole cluster principles: sufficiently generous benefits; sufficient coverage rates schemes; labour market segmentation leaves force poorly insured unemployment; proliferation relations into social insurance; activation unemployed individuals; constitution buffers so bad principles each State Whether risks shared ‘stability-supporting’ domestic favour contribute subsidisation authorities) Conversely plausible stability-supporting become fortiori imperative equipped systems: surely agree other’s governments exchange cannot guarantee function adequately Wrapping quality policies cross-border sharing intrinsically whereby latter former conditions At approach development (for discussion normative here see It wants gather Indeed broadly democratic reckoning initiatives To sure mutual present scenarios published over last years inspired survey experiment organized 19500 respondents 13 had judge designs varied minimum generosity education training programmes provided results show fundamental opposition hits confined small segment population contrary think listening 10 sample potential majorities packages associated referring (Vandenbroucke et al 2018; Short-time subsidy reductions number hours worked firms affected shocks; allows employers who experience drops production reduce employees’ instead laying them off Employees government proportional reduction Thus deteriorating skills mitigated firing future hiring networks kept alive Giupponi Landais (2020) explain convincingly sharp contraction caused public-health textbook use work: forms universal transfers efficient wage subsidies Moreover collective action very strong reasons mentioned previous section apply (the fragility stabilisers; externalities adequate cf metaphor) even gains Admittedly normal business cycle movements actual empirical weight ‘vaccination questioned since relatively limited disruption destroys matches human capital supply chains large-scale economies external impact huge ‘vaccinating’ Single Market For focus lay- offs well-taken rather ‘unemployment (re)insurance scheme’ envisages first-order effect ‘job distinction job meaningful well Nevertheless likely lowering better promises significant volume (100 billion): equally based Art 122 funded By using ESM avoids interference (divisive) whether vehicle solidarity corona ensure finances available borrow markets; logic close functioning original Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM) almost double firepower versus 60 billion) interesting feature introduces (cf supra smoothing) Having identified range core features keep mind next caveat disbursed supra) soft sharply increasing levels like Italy Spain little looming unsustainability those Second Langlais list concrete guidelines best signals difficult trade-off On hand legacies heterogeneous lose: hence try impose detailed implemented rightly measures: “the guidance indicated As already said section: discussing imposing imply delays afford Third lay-offs certain period solution underscore Inevitably workers laid off: laid-off ineligible bound rise given people contracts sectors: renewed end being dismissed de facto jure general note lacunae precarious urgent establish access including whatever type sector activity earn living Pillar Social Rights proclaimed 2017: (soft) Council Recommendation protection agreed 2019: badly Implementing principle prominently roadmap towards Establishing step forward does dispense us making Fourth operated requests disbursement depend bilateral agreements discretionary decision-making effectively entail automaticity sense complement ‘normal’ insurance: insurance’ created exogenous disaster So conceived day ‘plug-in’ ready installed immediately exceptional emergencies References: Laszlo (2016) Towards IZA J Labor Stud 5 design European-level Risk Sharing: Evidence Conjoint Experiment paper presented Situation Monitor Research Seminar “ Fairness Solidarity Europeans think” Brussels January Paul De (2018) Economics Integration 12th edition Cambridge: Cambridge University Press (2017a) Reflection Paper Deepening 31 May (COM(2017) 291) (2017b) New instruments stable Euro Area framework Parliament Central Bank 6 December 822 final) Proposal Regulation following outbreak 2 April COM 139 final Giulia Camille Building VoxEU 1 Stefano Sacchi David van der Duin Sven Hegewald Sharing When Hits: How Policy Design Influences Citizen (EURS) AISSR Report (December) through Redistribution Insurance Incomes: Guide Guarantor Provider? (February 3 Amsterdam Centre Studies No 2020/01 Professor Amsterdam; Commissioner Employment Affairs; now Secretary-General FEPS; MN Pension Vice-Dean Faculty Business Fiscal Board; International Comparative Political Economy Director Affairs DG EMPL Commission; Senior Associate WIIW; Department Science PhD-researcher Assistant Governance Gent