Social inequalities in Europe – The challenge of convergence and cohesion

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Vision Europe Summit Redesigning European welfare states – Ways forward Contents 5 Boxes Figures and Tables 7 Preface 10 The state in Visions for reform 12 Executive summary 1 Introduction 14 2 What is the state? 17 3 Evolving models of 23 4 Drivers change 26 Dilemmas 31 6 strategies achieving them 34 About authors 35 Acknowledgements References 36 Social inequalities challenge convergence cohesion 38 40 A approach to social inequalities: Two perspectives on solidarity 41 Convergence well-being equality: How define a ‘Social Triple A’ Europe? 43 Median incomes relative income poverty 45 Income pensions non-pension transfers 49 Work-poor work-rich households EU changing nature employment 54 human capital divide 59 8 Health healthcare environment 67 9 ‘Dual-use’ policy packages role 70 Solidarity mutual trust 72 11 Envoi 73 74 75 growing intergenerational 78 emergence an 80 Key drivers 84 forward: Policy measures address 92 95 96 Governing beyond Solutions complex world uncertain future 98 100 Purpose paper: From reactive proactive governance 103 Developing capacities strategic agile 105 Adopting phenomena-based human-centric policies 110 Strengthening democratic base 115 Renewing provision 120 towards legitimate agenda 125 Synthesis discussion 130 133 134 135 Appendix: become more Advice decision-makers 138 Imprint 142 Box | do governments distribute benefits? 19 ‘Worlds’ capitalism 24 Figure Global protection expenditure aggregates 2012 or latest (% total) GDP per capita selected countries US$ 15 benefits all functions (expenditure as % GDP) 20 Expenditure (PPS basis 2012) 21 by function 1993–2012) receipts type total 22 Labour force participation rate (female–male ratio) Germany 29 Change real median percentage point (with floating threshold) SILC 2008–SILC 2013 At-risk-of-poverty (anchored time) 47 non-elderly population Poverty reduction (percentage points): compared average 2005–2007 51 risks work intensity EU-27 (%) Development formal education attainments 60 Developments early childhood care 61 skills 62 Skills dispersion 63 Distribution adult across 64 worrying divergence public spending 65 environmental quality 68 Table Structure below years household work-intensity 55 An overview Italy’s 2011 pension 86 Musgrave rule benefit ratio 89 Material deprivation Union population) Unemployment age group active respective cohort) 81 Young people not training aged 20–24 cohort Percentage changes material (2007–2013 83 Population EU28 2014 projections 2040 88 All 2007–2060 2013–2060 91 young old 82 Government (group) 2008 85 General government expenditures composition from Projected ratios 90 governance? 104 Governance nutshell 106 Leadership sustainable economic Finland 108 main phases components policy-making 111 Examples innovations 117 collaborative 123 Initiative Benefit Scheme 126 Quality services according poll conducted eight (share responses %) 113 Activating security systems 122 127 Country codes AT Austria AU Australia BE Belgium BG Bulgaria CA Canada CY Cyprus CZ Czech Republic DE DK Denmark EE Estonia EL Greece ES Spain FI FR France HR Croatia HU Hungary IE Ireland IT Italy JP Japan KR South Korea LT Lithuania LU Luxembourg LV Latvia MT Malta NL Netherlands NO Norway PL Poland PT Portugal RO Romania SE Sweden SI Slovenia SK Slovakia UK United Kingdom US States developed but that should play remains open question particularly most aspects are likely remain national prerogatives This publication suggests ways level order ensure which able fulfill their core citizens Throughout year experts seven think tanks foundations collaborated working groups chaired Eeva Hellström Mikko Kosonen (The Finnish Innovation Fund Sitra) Frank Vandenbroucke (Jacques Delors Institute) Guntram Wolff (Bruegel) Each focused one specific aspect reforms whilst Iain Begg (Chatham House) outlined overall challenges introductory chapter reflects process: Four chapters diverse methodology focus with common aim contribute Our intention provoke debate There no single neither content process Every system has different using means first outlines background general following three these suggest options: On equality (chapter 2) distribution contributions generations 3) finally processes behind decisions 4) In January 2015 leading joined forces form consortium created some pressing facing Through research publications annual summit we be forum source recommendations improve at both foster appropriate integration convening organizations are: Bertelsmann Stiftung (Gütersloh) Bruegel (Brussels) Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation (Lisbon) Chatham House (London) Compagnia di San Paolo (Turin) Jacques Institute (Paris) Sitra (Helsinki) this conveners chose explore For many heart what it values underpin deeply embedded societies Compared rest unites stronger than separates Yet face If they competitive assets have reformed By analyzing history outlining current “The reforms” highlights why topic was selected: financial crisis accelerated structural problems Governments seize chance implement investing long-term sustainability addition four fruit intense exchange between our papers therefore represent diversity views rather agreed roadmap We see differences strength reflecting approaches methods available makers varied traditions These discussions high-level politicians stakeholders Berlin November I look fruitful Aart De Geus Chairman CEO Gütersloh second “Social Inequalities cohesion” takes comparative perspective highlighting how types inequality increased decreased within member recent ceased machine thus could make engine run again tackle forms third state?” focuses namely It shows had impact toward younger older groups: Relative retirement while families children take even view avenue solution fairness final “Governing future” mechanisms can adapted meet upcoming efficient catalysts oil its fluidity needs enhanced differs preceding ones broader looking just field where innovative structures needed evolving today Fabian Mushövel Robin Niblett • Welfare will also adapt new resulting economies especially patterns They use resources efficiently relevant technological advances without unduly sacrificing key principles such number dilemmas about decisionmaking oversight surround efforts there reasons optimistic model Well-designed promote growth asset norms continent’s perform redistributive protect vulnerable Contrary negative portrayals invest stages lives Pressures finances burden imposes ‘productive’ parts raise questions whether still afford designed 50 ago need recast confront today’s must accommodate extensive societal transformations associated ageing closer global spillover effects climate 13 emerging lower labour costs raising fundamental Europe’s leaders struggled answer include extent state’s responsibility specifically maintain comprehensive fact Merkel’s data somewhat inaccurate EU’s 40% (Figure 1) share nominal 24% (at prices rates making sense unsustainable As German chancellor Angela Merkel fond claiming (EU) accounts roughly 7% world’s 25% over 50% implication only generous comparison provisions elsewhere unaffordable major recasting undeniably range demographic fiscal other pressures exacerbated weak recession since 2008–09 Changing competition Other countries** large economies* ASEAN Latin America OECD minus * Large China Egypt India Nigeria Russia Saudi Arabia Africa Arab Emirates ** exclude American Samoa Andorra Bermuda Cabo Verde Cayman Islands Channel Comoros Curaçao Djibouti Faeroe French Polynesia Gabon Greenland Guam Haiti Isle Man North Kosovo Liberia Liechtenstein Macao Malawi Micronesia Monaco Montenegro New Caledonia Northern Mariana Palau Puerto Rico Congo Marino Serbia Sierra Leone St Martin (Dutch parts) Somalia Sudan Suriname Syria Taiwan Timor-Leste Tonga Turkmenistan Turks Caicos Tuvalu Virgin (US) West Bank Gaza Sources: EUROSTAT (for states); SOCX database non-EU countries); ILOSTAT non-OECD World Data data) Brazil small fraction advanced rise prosperity increases seek strengthen result expected fall simply because accounted already clear example soon steps deal rapidly introducing higher support allowance differing price levels) broadly same Switzerland very slightly gap ‘old’ industrial markets including alternative measurement converting ‘purchasing power standards (reflecting would shares 20% push up corresponding market socx Turkey 16 While something ‘give’ affordability tricky concept linked concern high undermining competitiveness looked if accepted adjustments made Today’s political context adjustment benign wake protracted politics fragmenting less wealthy members Populist parties seen results Parliament elections several then pervasive nor whole prevent globalization further constraining wages widening paper aims lay out scope ahead starts describing Second evolution particular introduces investment Third assesses socio-economic threatens considers potential cope effectively faces Three areas deeper suggested additional series focusing dimensions strategy enabling achieve coming decades central redistribution sustain budgets others capacity deliver by-product interventionist Inevitably outlook influences seeks good lies consensus long held principally private leaving provide those unable health insurance politicized increasingly contested settlement exposed difficulties President Barack Obama faced passing Affordable Care Act prevailing principal providing universal coverage through budget thereby avoiding failures blighted Overall fulfils analytically distinctive (drawing extending Nicholas Barr 2012): ‘Robin Hood’ redistributing various better-off society subject comprise institutions against delivering relief housing reducing exclusion regulations unfair dismissal rights temporary workers evolved time now one-parent isolation old-age pensioners during period when region’s profile solid affordable economy been defined 1950s development each country whereby taken costly poor parallel sought regulate fair One currently reconcile commitments widely supported politically may economically Purposes design ‘welfare state’ eludes concrete definition Its purpose however help often competing dynamics equity democracy Free-market inherent tendency unequally evenly notions (Hay Wincott relation underlying variant Dani Rodrik’s ‘trilemma’ incompatibility nation (Rodrik 2011) his analysis two simultaneously sustained much designing judging pros cons influenced ideology 18 Pension schemes allow individuals redistribute selves secure manner Student loans enable students consume allows claims Child otherwise financially constrained Risk-sharing provides unexpected unacceptable individuals’ living unemployment disability At guard eliminating incentives well-judged offer rewards alike overly discourage search Different modes risk-sharing Actuarial insurance: pool insured losses certain events Benefits actuarial strictly related one’s own systematic rich ‘lucky’ ‘unlucky’ i e who pay never suffer loss pooling principle typically compulsory membership perhaps justified insure Redistribution poor: entail elements paid lower-paid higher-paid ‘piggy bank’ enables themselves hardship spread securely lifetime being element nation’s (harder define) (Hemerijk includes kindergarten primary university out-of-work work-related tax macroeconomic terms serve ‘automatic stabilizers’ disruption individual levels More priorities listed Macro- microeconomic efficiency reacts wherever deviations optimal outcomes uninsurable intervention libertarian Improving aggregate well Consumption smoothing cash smooth consumption Relieving essential objective modern nearly offering minimum guarantee undertaking basic shelter Whether entails elimination alleviation depends factors Reducing vertical (from progressive taxation) horizontal (ensuring similar characteristics family size etc treated equivalently) Addressing normative increasing dignity clients unnecessary stigma Cash entitlements based past payments triggered contingencies (e g ill health) replacement unemployed allowances Non-contributory benefits: any obligation means-testing child countries) assistance: means-tested kind free (either rents issues policy-makers financed delivered assured degree does conform well-functioning (being imperfect information incomplete deny needy) explains relies heavily finance spent almost twice (16 2% (8 8% contrast figures were 9% 1% mode delivery hand varies mostly mixed private) interferes school predominantly publicly Some discerned considering scale mix (Figures 5) partly reflect preferences conditions Per lowest-income clearly noteworthy northern Among headings striking stable outlays appear protected (and indeed increased) Healthcare similarly gently continued increase before after played automatic stabilizing segments occurred despite ‘austerity’ narrative generally hard cut restructure simple reason lose protest loudly leads opt instead conspicuous cuts under pressure Source: 2000 EU- 27 28 2007 EU-15 1993–99 EU-25 2000–04 2005–07 EU-28 2008–12 EU* Disability Survivors Housing Family/children Sickness/healthcare Old 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009 2010 Purchasing standard (PPS* PPS Euro ‘000s fund delicate issue proportion revenue raised explicit charges consequence taxation difference extreme generates fifth employers whereas times Differences opposed among asking shoulder going albeit jumped rose might jumping denominator fell sharply levied employees 6) Even ‘free need’ flat charge drug prescriptions fees dental With employer person contribution 0 25 (providing ensuring equitably distributed groups) shocks 1970s onwards conjunction rising inflation slowing came known ‘stagflation’ called into orthodoxy sometimes neoliberalism characterized renewed reliance belief smaller sound money (balancing low ) subsequent paradox emerged consistent questioning surprisingly amounts ‘Worlds welfare’ Nevertheless ‘varieties capitalism’ categorized academics best Gøsta Esping-Andersen’s ‘worlds (Esping-Andersen 1990) He identified distinct marked ‘decommodification’ (i outside market) ‘stratification’ class mobility) providers Later fourth Southern ‘world’ added Maurizio Ferrera (1996) (See moot put place course transitions socialism Central Eastern constitute largely constructed present War longer-term accommodations Despite considerable continent reasonable speak easily lack Pascal Lamy referred embodying ‘a way life’ described civilized version globalization’ (EurActiv 2014) features commitment limiting indisputably special status: Britons National Service totemic status; word ‘solidarity’ politics; Nordic set great store broad postwar socioeconomic paradigm component management golden attributes reconciling allowing significantly insecurities (poverty inadequate Full contributed legitimization era explained Alan Milward (2000) seminal book transpired division ‘project’ fostering growth) sets ‘idealtype’ precise description However enduring influence though reality nuanced substantial quarter century Esping-Andersen published belie easy categorization examples show given display regimes part undergone reunification; facilitated Since mid-1990s shift evident Although term interpretations (Vandenbroucke Vleminckx ‘social understood tries adaptability flexibility employability roots activation prominent 1930s notion productive factor became 1990s regarded legitimizing taxpayer resistance cost programmes perceived (however inaccurately) distinguishes ‘capacitating’ interventions compensate require costlier (Morel et al capitalism* Social-democratic/Scandinavian Prevalent Generous earnings Stratification citizenship/social right State provider Characterized public-sector Corporatist/Continental ‘Bismarckian’ Northern-central typified Varying degrees decommodification stratification preserving status Main contributory ties Basic supplemented (pensions Opening jobs earlier Liberal/Anglo-Saxon Minimal decommodification; stigmatizing Seeks demand liberalization wage Mostly comparatively Insider-based Extended unit maintenance Strong favouring full-time Based concepts interesting posed socio-ecological Ageing managed ‘Active’ enhance traditional passive inactive equip decarbonization knowledge workforce required critics correlation ‘Matthew effect’ deriving verse Gospel Matthew Bible states: ‘for whosoever hath him shall he abundance: away hath’ (see Cantillon argue too accrue middleclass childcare favourable treatment wider expressed bodies Anti-Poverty Network putting discriminates dire undermines presents relates arithmetic function: longer unless countervailing action Provision sheltered adds requiring suitably qualified appraising important note distinction fully capitalized funding (through funds flows pensions) pay-as-you-go (which rely taxpayers charges) affect details fundamentally alter falling having dependent around legitimation transparency Immigration mitigate migrants working-age motivated coping would-be crossing Mediterranean illustrate obstacles immigration receptive Moreover instances integrating immigrants tensions problem here blurred boundary trying come refugees fleeing oppressive inhibited rational countering populations elaborate protections threat directions Principal EU-level requirements discipline Dealing recognized generate ill-equipped manage obvious fuel energy But opportunities; targeted (better insulation stock example) reduce carbon emissions ‘sustainability’ germane Demographic starting decline projected 2050 ramifications country’s shrink (depending scenario) 2030 (Dolls oldage dependency (the elderly dependents (Paulus end spectrum steadily (Eurostat 2013) Public debt risen weighted 90% blame attributed bail sectors imprudent lending lead-up sustaining declining significant Given integrated deficits priority driven coordinating cases overcome domestic vested interests Past coordination included criteria established advance Maastricht Treaty determine join currency Stability Growth Pact launch monetary union recently deepened embrace ‘semester’ Commission scrutinizes states’ euro area creation movement goods theory absorbing affecting attracted dynamic regions languishing Globalization governments’ ability arrangements independently expensive frequently funded worker employed mobile race attract foreign relatively find companies moving proportions operations locations inside Similarly restrictions firing minimizing caused lead taking ‘offshore’ Remedies shifting taxes (part attraction taxing ‘bads’ ‘goods’ labour) create unintended consequences poorly instance aggravate damage step Western tension restrictive earn returns Restrictive undermine dividend comes integrate newcomers Instead finding quickly contributing placing burdens Free led enshrined Chapter stipulated EU-wide ranging holidays limits hours someone obliged heard academic argument market-making (referred literature ‘negative integration’) easier regulation aimed curbing excesses (known ‘positive Fritz Scharpf (2010) argued converge liberal substantively obstructs embedding strong dimension Changes structure/societal demands women Germany) calls rethinking malebreadwinner progress shrinking ages unfolds importance Scharpf’s characterization newly draws (1990) Hall Soskice (2001) numbers Middle East posing Local schools hospitals entering evidence immigrants’ suffering agreements portability least intra-EU migration residents advantage opportunities move freely Technology innovation technologies bound Productivity welcomed slow maintaining labour-saving Fears disappear prove misplaced periods transformation winners losers trend service activities grow industry implications lost ‘green’ Both Centre Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) analyses stress ‘transversal’ green job reflected incidence suffered big downturns construction sector retain falls prior espoused ‘flexicurity’ combining flexible fairly favoured criticized anti-worker offers successful application deregulation reunification happened applicable tasks occupation-specific (OECD CEDEFOP surfaced testify attributable preservation stressed (belying ‘hire fire’ image latter) although possible resort precarious ‘Kurzarbeit’ ‘zero hours’ contracts Ratio female male (aged older) engages either actively UN Programme; Indicators Market (7th edition Geneva: International Organization ratio)* 1990 1991 1992 creating ‘non-standard’ averting proved limited (Dustman 2014; Carlin challenged polarization continues healthy high-skilled steady lower-skilled personal hollowing-out middle pattern (Eurofound 2015) highskilled upsurge part-time raises arise everywhere; dealt resolved financing advocate transition investments yield noted above equally sensitive scheme acquire accumulated Upon retiring realized nominally used output shouldered potentially intractable imposing stretched medical breakthroughs obviously news expectations probability vote campaign favours difficult decision-making involve fertility cannot matters next enters Unless paying drawing nevertheless Economic concerns examined mainstays ‘Merkel formula’ producing implies message continuing accept rendering uncompetitive so squeeze years) side story well-designed ‘pie’ determining sliced prompts mediated manifestly recalibration wide-ranging shown necessary economics (2012) critical woolly thinking fails distinguish objectives conjoined idea produced certainly arguments risk-pooling better prime vastly identify bad worse 32 food-banks five ‘giant evils’ William Beveridge 1942 report laid disease squalor ignorance want idleness) endemic summed array watchwords opportunity frailty life-course eradicated diseases tuberculosis polio afflicted Beveridge’s day confronted Obesity lifestyle-related cancers mental age-related dementia contemporary reshaping chronic acute To survivor typical working-life manual breadwinner remained incapacitated Greater mobility gender roles dealing parents fail vectors segmentation ‘outsiders’ supposedly fit link linking prevented excessively Over 10- 20-year horizon solutions easing Increasing effective payable altering balance inactivity (noting dictates worked official account) Early-retirement entrants mistaken response generosity offered Raising boosting latter’s attracting immigrant Investing abroad flow emulating Norway’s massive sovereign wealth dilemma assumptions tenable Longer life expectancy improved emancipation virtual absolute rightly celebrated achievements resulted return mass worst-affected 33 warrant (or eurozone-wide) sort mooted former commissioner László Andor (2014) closed shared viable intensifying economists describe ‘wedge’ becomes difficulty Where wedge half top debilitating effect compounds alongside ought uncontroversial undoubtedly (crucially) technology regard Resistance familiar disruptive mean managing Equally body experimental transformative (one partners project) implemented improving (Doz short- incumbent decisionmakers accelerate adoption posited choices clarified resolve few profound lasted previous cyclical exceptions Greece) richer ever None unaffordability hold short-term imperative restoring contentious public/ dichotomy save spend determined organize actor delegate specialist executive agencies assign employers’ trade unions tradition plainly done break norms: ‘long goodbye Bismarck’ (borrowing phrase Palier 2010) signal ripe rethink fundamentals principle? observes direction Bismarckian go notes introduction safety net defining feature gulf envied Those contemplating overlook abiding strengths arising discussed John Hills affects strata finds receive lifetimes matches Only decile makes (though sizeable) bottom receives (Hills fabric overblown liability Transformation avoided pertinent ask whom how? worth stressing austerity aftermath considerations Certainly fiscally Countries allowed rein proposition false covered (Begg 2005) Critics deals (Laurent Europeans pondering ‘non-social’ acknowledged insufficiently picture man factory woman office hospital Careers evolve sharp Work–life pronounced light reinforce moves apparent entitlement citizenship pessimistic scenario follows mentioned due bias formation impossible entailing retrenchment socialdemocratic (following conceptualization) Choices invites examination provision) met reduced ‘sticky’ resistant shout louder Politicians apprehensive losing shy Anton Hemerijck assessments asserts: ‘both feats mid-twentieth institutional engineering reinvent themselves’ professorial fellow London School Economics Political Science associate Programme His directed participated projects facets senior ‘UK Europe’ initiative extensively journals served co-editor Journal Common Studies frequent contributor international conferences commentator media PhD candidate completed master’s awarded University Giessen obtained 1st Examination Sciences Dr CMG director Before joining vice-president chief operating officer Center Strategic (CSIS) Washington DC During last CSIS Program ‘Initiative Renewed Transatlantic Partnership’ panellist testified occasions Commons Defence Select Committee Foreign Affairs Senate Representatives Committees received BA MPhil DPhil College Oxford like thank respectively helpful input comments draft versions editorial assistance Nick Bouchet Thomas Raines Jake Statham Georgina Wright L 2014: “Basic Countering divergences Monetary Union” Speech Vienna Business Europa Press Release September http://europa eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-14-635_ en htm N 2012: 5th ed Oxford: 2005: Rethinking Dimension EU: Costs Non-Social In: Baum-Cesig Faber : Soziales Europa? Perspektiven des Wohlfahrtsstaates im Kontext von Europäisierung und Globalisierung Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften B 2011: state: Lisbon 21(5): 432–449 W Hassel D Dolvik J E (eds ): Models Crisis Dolls M Doorley K Schneider H Sommer Europe: labor NEUJOBS Working Paper Doz Y Future: Building Agile Dustmann C Fitzenberger Schönberg U SpitzOener Sick Superstar: Germany’s Resurgent Economy Perspectives 28(1): 167–188 G 2010: Foreword Long Goodbye Bismarck: Politics Reform Continental Amsterdam: Amsterdam 1990: Worlds Capitalism Princeton Jersey: EurActiv “Lamy: world” February www euractiv com/eu-elections-2014/pascal-lamy-interviewinterview-533239 Eurofound 2015: Upgrading polarisation? Long-term shifts structure Jobs Monitor Luxembourg: Publications Office EUROPOP http://ec europa eu/ eurostat/data/database?node_code=proj 1996: ‘Southern Model’ 6(1): 17–37 P 2001: Varieties Capitalism: Institutional Foundations Competitiveness Hay Basingstoke Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan Good Times Bad Times: Myth Them Us Bristol: 2000: Rescue Nation-State 2nd London: Routledge Laurent Le bel avenir de l’État-providence Paris: LLL Morel Palme Towards Investment State? Ideas Policies Challenges Greener 37 Paulus Siegloch S Retirement Age Counter Aging? Evidence EU27 June Rodrik Paradox: Why Markets Democracy Can’t Coexist York: Norton F Asymmetry Integration Economy’ SocioEconomic Review 8(2): 211–250 Disappointing trends: blame? 450–471 founding fathers project prepared Rome optimistically assumed reached supranational cooperation; fruits remaining prerogative matter Hence expect domain regional contextualisation Simultaneously framework virtuous circle pan-European Cohesion deserves supports stimulate develop pursue becoming unequal one-size-fits-all explanation stopped ‘convergence machine’ recorded impressive accession eurozone Within position mutually reinforcing polarisation First work-poor attachment market; experiencing latter started silver bullet inequalities; complementary instruments reconsidered stalemates situation lone UAntwerpen David Rinaldi 39 awareness Union; witness Five Presidents’ Report refugee promotion requires Mutual stake dumping crucial condition opinion regulated order; Reconciling freedoms internal relations insurmountable ‘balancing act’ figure short summarised reconciles openness cohesion; systemic functions; guide substantive indicating Such ‘dual-use’ exist: telling Upward upward Currently affected educational carry sufficient weight setting Real ten badly Obviously greater access success money; words child-centred addresses serves dual pursuing deserve encouragement learn tangible notably budgetary straits ‘solidarity reform’ informs follows: enhanced? section solidarity: panEuropean sketch launched briefly add sections six dig little relate challenge4 wellbeing (health environment) elaborating upon nine positive stability conclusion Vanhercke Friends (2015) Hüttl recapitulate organise worse-off banks’ And tackling adequate combination repeat existing causes refer reader yearly Justice Index quantifies multidimensional justice underscores contexts complement selectively observations consider true analytical emphasises perspectives: See Schraad-Tischler organised boost convergence; essence confined gradual (impressive) anti-discrimination legislation Admittedly piecemeal developments acquis encompasses shifted firmly anchored hindsight interpretation) say understand perspective? wanted give nationals discrimination nationality Gradually patients acquired residence Is founders’ purpose? Their ‘redistributive’ risks; historically mainly opportunities: wanting needing inclusion hot debates Impressive organisations Rather recapitulating said truly purely deemed entertaining ‘domestic’ anachronistic ignores goals parcel 1957: simultaneous pursuit states) Union) believe reconnect ambition reconsider realising cooperation together later brought ‘economic territorial’ policy) (2008); (2011); (2015); Commission’s reports Employment ESDE (2012); (2014); Council (2013); Salverda Oxfam Atkinson 42 far no-go stabilisation Factual distrust threaten erode itself witnessing concomitant Between displayed exact opposite convergence: saps legitimacy risk caught trap: vicious cycle That unification stabilisation) crisis) forcing classic polity initially ‘opportunity structure’ aspiration well-known territory refers obligations indicated did diminish conceived contrary confident actors produce tune propose logical ‘the Model co-existing models; describes interact supposed inherently multifaceted Consecutive enlargements demanding Indeed convergence’ enlargement necessitates characterised So framework: conceptualise discuss space careful thought indicate remainder ‘beyond GDP’ measure long-standing asks question: favour ‘equality opportunity’ outcome’? Philosophical proponents circumstances responsible innate talents) effort valorise philosophical case Roemer Trannoy (2013) robust; superficial meritocratic Jean-Claude Juncker election: “I dedicated triple sense” Strasbourg October Stiglitz (2009); Fleurbaey Blanchet Better Life Initiative; Hämäläinen Suppose sake simplicity assessing inspiration project’s Section income; indicator indicators Broadening assessment (let alone revamp Sections start parameters live benchmark framed (measured level) Space forbids ‘dual’ relating distributive directly only) apply citizens; threshold formulate interpreted pragmatic formulation elaboration leaves cross-country account aggregation giving worst off prong presupposes (in inequality) 44 settle practical seems corresponds histories subsidiarity limit accommodated 2015a b) accountability Traditionally accountable performance Today location straightforward: local municipalities) responsibilities huge one-sided federal governments: ‘active support’ complexity: everything goes wrong terms; stated hide eventual Shared ‘good days’ sovereignty understanding captured usual statistics outcome stark Hungary; family’s individual’s larger build meaning chances regardless initial Also turn activating emphasis ‘here now’ (Hemerijck Finally space’ people; lot traction benchmarks Model: dismissed ‘in retreat’ vis-à-vis straightforward “Higher tends imply ”11 algebraic decomposition Lefranc (2007) ‘inequality product elasticity capture transmission children) parental Would award A? answering ‘outcome’ yardstick: combine EU-SILC [ilc_di03] [ilc_li02] authors’ calculations at-risk-of-poverty 60% conventional Applied ‘at-risk-of-poverty time’ kept constant adjusted at-riskof-poverty combined decrease (increase) unchanged atrisk-of-poverty (decreases): (less) (above) worsens (improves) (decreases) practice mixture scenarios compares ranked left majority 201214 dramatic 3% (an points) 6%) moderately comparison; compare exception axis reduction) 2012;12 threshold; (60% 2007; north-eastern quadrant graph deteriorated south-western north-western experienced drastic worsening Very south-eastern eurozone; span outbreak removed zoom captures incomes; examine ‘median income’ ‘net disposable equivalised registered pertains Incomes (except Ireland: Increases corrected corollary severe ‘absolute’ (it country) dramatically EU15 regressive probably Severe strain enforced inability items: i) rent mortgage utility bills; ii) home heating; iii) expenses; iv) meat proteins regular meals; v) holiday; vi) television; vii) washing machine; viii) car; ix) telephone Notwithstanding (notably Slovakia) heralded analyse non-eurozone discern minor subset [ilc_li22b] Note: (AROP) AROP (threshold 2008) ‘anchored 48 Therefore thresholds GINI-coefficients quintile indispensable medium project;17 Poland) dominated adverse evolutions marginally conflicting signals happens consideration indication experience yardstick statement intuitive comparable past; moreover 1980s 2000s implausible constituting Communities sentence respect diminished 2004–2006 points poverty; changed completely: different: 2004–2006; reveals (on shift) extended (Diris pension-heavy consideration: transfer overload embodied so-called Simplified stabilised target value guided by22 ‘defined ambition’ non-pensioners contribution’ benefit’ unilaterally absent translation simplification (sociodemographic) justify selection policy; judgements ‘leisure-consumption tradeoff’ desirable inform Belgian 2020–2040 proposed thorough Annex presentation ‘point system’; pensioen2040 belgie (Dutch) pension2040 belgique (French) expression ‘guided by’ deliberately vague built keep ‘on course’ (towards ambition) whatever narrowed remarkable reversal sociological trends (such earnership record robust stabiliser’ crisis; patchy hit switch stabilisers (too) forced Keynesian necessarily bad; Economically acted buffer ‘pension heaviness’ observation paragraph ‘elderly’ more; ‘nonelderly’ 2005– reading account; indirect tariffs attention ‘transfers’ cut) commonly ‘poverty transfers’: equal ‘post-transfer rate’ ‘pre-transfer post-transfer observe reality; pre-transfer theoretical counterfactual manipulation eliminated survey cautiously considerably enjoy lesser pensioners; documented realistic hypotheses attainable careers maybe Additional earned necessary; cf [ilc_li10] excluded transfers) (left bars) 2005bis 07 BU 52 mechanism and/or (market) diminishes (Sweden instance) Anglo-Saxon (Ireland UK); (Greece Portugal) heterogeneous; cluster considerable); stabilisation’ deep nonelderly; trajectory Prima facie converging congenial Bénassy-Quéré (1985–2010) encompassing 2013); showing obtain indicates mechanical ‘amount done’ bringing illustrates predicament transfers’ stable; downward Luxemburg); Romania) se ‘good’: decent preferable largescale decreasing fight Diris When posttransfer normal ‘endogenous’ correspond 2004–2006) graphs explain (next instability itself) beginning 53 effectiveness 4; complementarity (Cantillon conclude “a amongst redistribution” discomforting irresistible globalisation mature back systems? convincingly argues nations rank competitiveness; contrary: well-organised score competiveness index (although performs counts broaden historic orientation capacitating panacea; differ (2014: 8) “the tax-and amount along period” subgroups households: Eurostat defines months reference theoretically month) determinant ‘household intensity’ [ilc_li06] cut-off High Medium Low Household (age < 60) yet returning pre-crisis hollowing middle: (but high) ‘very rich’ poor’ explaining play: households; crisis: began ‘employment successes’ converted ‘inclusion homogeneous trajectories comparing Around decade sizable heightened considerably; conversely Using terminology applied instantiates differentiated witnessed ‘work-poor’ (by intensity)28 ‘Work earned; hence confused ‘in-work poverty’ Years 56 apart deliberate constraint adequacy dual-earner determines reach adults household; constellation disincentives wages; insufficient single-adult parent ‘work traps’ alleviate costs’ singles single-income earners child-rearing toolset assigned ‘cost-compensation’ supplements intelligent selectivity utmost driver; reduces phenomenon (Corluy indications influence: tax-and-transfer employment; role: loneparent (say mother holds job) couple partner works employed); zero intensity) segment contractual emphasised increased: accompanied grows 57 direct list assess empirically non-standard discerns links Non-standard ‘stepping stone’ career Many low-skilled penalties slower Households 30 contradictory Voluntary match individuals; Part-time supply fulltime zero-hour system) questions: OECD’s 15–16 underscore correctly heterogeneity ‘glass ceiling’ Apart (potential) glass ceiling 2015; Fundamentally ‘fairness’ compensation work: settings supporting low-wage low-income taxand-transfer Minimum cross-border mobility: fears unwarranted ‘low-wage’ denied enforcement posting advised (statutory collective bargaining) reduction’ floor explored 58 protection; substitutes protecting individuals: act macro-economic ‘investment’ ignore ‘protective’ Traditional important; denying found architecture addressed unique learning (Hellström attractive option; cul-de-sac ‘marginal employment’ mini-jobs contains informative organisation prevalence work; productivity contradiction choice (ESDE Job arrangements; ‘job control’ autonomy highlighted ‘Job drive control autonomy: happenstance emerges following: questioned ‘high road’ quantity count; actually full valorisation Lack ESPN notwithstanding Package (SIP) Recommendation Children (namely Turkey) reported uptake wealthier educated ECEC consist empowering disadvantaged Actual skill attainment PISA scores 15-year-old pupils proficiency proxy actual 8A lowskilled marginal Furthermore performing showed baseline paired top-performing students; confirms mathematics science maths 6% restrict formally wide 25- 34-year-olds attains tertiary 6A upper secondary vast notable Likewise 6B encouraging coupled Unfortunately piece cause concern: eradication social-exclusion mechanisms; signs consolidation things preschool Funds Early Childhood Education (ECEC) 54% surprising enrolment decreases: highest enrolled (28%); 21% contract A) Formally Share UOE [edat_lfse_05] [edat_lfse_07] 25–34 year-old skilled (levels 0–2) 5–8) B) 25th percentile32 9B) tell stories really P75/ P25 worsened (France examples) undertaken performance) percentile identifies student sample catching competences deterioration doing lessen 35% 5% lag insights 9A) [ilc_caindformal] Participation part- Low-skilled literacy Database [tsdsc450] Authors’ Top Level Reading written situations encounter (Luxembourg Netherlands) (Croatia Estonia) High-skilled P75/P25 Cut (Estonia Kingdom) Score condense low- adults34 best-performing PIAAC covering plus Flanders participating ‘stock’ PIAAC33 released Assessment Adult Competencies (PIAAC) carried numeracy problem-solving evaluates cognitive workplace cross-sectional study region Survey [Table A2 1] 4] Scores Adults ‘low skilled’; considered skilled’ Literacy Mean Low-Skilled (right scale) High-Skilled embryonic stage culture lifelong serious sum developments; insofar alarming 22% highly mere Scandinavian 287 (250 (258 10% non-existent [gov_10a_exp] 2005=100 [nama_gdp_p] Spending [demo_pjangroup] change) vs 2006–08 inhabitant demographically 66 2006-2008 (deflated deflator) review 29% 18% 16% 15% 14% Meanwhile (always 2006-2008) demography plays role; calculating 12% spectacular measured simplistic education; disinvesting coherent promotes negatively discrepancy persistent stresses sees achievement concludes “educational countries” double challenge: competence addressing bring recognises issued excellent modernisation displays blue bars unmet Actually noticeable regressed (Finland +8 +6 +4 3%) Concerns via amenities states37 develops waste resources; Pye (2008) numerous interlinkages attempt promoting synergies policymaking: socially environment; impact: lifestyles differently; regulation: diversely taxes; exposure access: mandate Environmental Agency expectancies Baltic shorter rear shift: countries: now; achieved enjoyed years’ (73 Universal availability registers selfreported examinations Medical healthcare; waiting lists distance barriers entire reporting distances quintile; 11% penalise unfortunately novelty check presence pollution crime environment-related smoke dust unpleasant smells polluted water proximity dwelling 2005–2013 discomfort Sweden; (Denmark ethnicity hazard Being environmentally risky noisy represents barrier empowerment [ilc_mddw02] grime 69 impacted gains distress Marked social-ecological Borrowing military dual-use package orientations character Adequate coordinated bargaining promising provided preserve Inadequate balanced Flexible smoothly combines Together Less Inequality mobilising areas: women’s good-quality adopt “Each depending origins ”38 demonstrating always backgrounds widens highinequality struggle poorest inhibits 71 facilitate proposal bargaining: proposes euro-area ‘competitiveness authorities’ referring watchdog derives authority precisely practice’ broadened authorities initiatives successfully adequately powerful instrument According weakened keeping pace doubt multinational firms Without corporate (Bénassy-Quéré playing natural deepening integration; vein consolidating necessitate domains controversial merits mentions improvement dialogue equitable inclusive growth: density centralisation/coordination tend disagreement insight ‘national conversations’ totally vantage symmetry learned invited ‘lack discipline’ Elsewhere visible pursues coordinate increases: acknowledge decentralisation encourage organization option engage sufficiently spectre large-scale materialised enlarged blatant illegal exploitation occur interplay gaps implementation legal absence heterogeneous salient feasible balancing (under conditions) solidarity; touched touch unstable fragile: lacked banking bank ready lender President’s functions: another generic technical options pursued; clarify ideas programme completion insurance) circumstances) Beblavý Maselli simulation exercise harmonised reinsurance Enderlein shock leave twin new; revisit originally inspired original longterm Fernandes Maslauskaite (2015a Research Fellow Paris DEFAP Graduate Milan visiting Bocconi Nottingham specialised affairs Academic Assistant Department Bruges specialisation consultant Division teaching assistant macroeconomics vocational Nations Addis Ababa Permanent Mission York grateful Katharina Barié Timo Lindholm Daniel SchraadTischler Joscha Schwarzwälder Karen Wilson Aspects Group opinions Professor (UvA) chair ‘Herman Deleeck’ Antwerp (UA) Special Advisor Board Trustees studied Leuven Cambridge Phil Minister Security Insurance Pensions Federal (1999–2004) Flemish Regional (2004–2009) professor KU until 2013–2014 econ kuleuven be/frankvandenbroucke Guttenberg Spiess 2013: Blueprint Cyclical Shock Area & Reports “EU Differentiated Integration” Project Brussels Study Polarisation? Long-Term Shifts Structure: Union: Ever Closing Peoples Rising Impacts Outcomes EUFunded Performance Inferences Regarding Deepening EMU: Maintain Develop Model? Completing Beyond Measuring Assessing Sustainability Unequal Recommendations Caring Final High-Level Union’ spring Can Be Done? Area: Simulation Exercise Options CEPS No R Consortium Tax Harmonization Moving Forward Les du conseil d’analyse économique Analysis Collado Van Mechelen Glass Ceiling Reduction print Work Successful Are States? Corluy V Polarisation Revisited: Case Discussion Series DPS15 08 Living Dignity 21st Century Societies Human Rights: Paradox Democracies Verbist Poverty: Explain DPS14 Fuest Peichl Automatic Stabilizers Crisis: 96(3–4): 279–294 ECB Theory Implications Bulletin Issue 76 Not Few Time Reverse Course Briefing 206 Skinner Meyer-Ohlendorf Leipprand Lucas Salmons 2008: Dimensions Linkages Directorate-General Equal Opportunities Start Equality Opportunity Cowles Papers 1921 Yale Haven Nolan Checchi Marx McKnight Toth van Werfhorst Rich Analytical Comparative Inclusion Sen Fitoussi J-P 2009: Measurement Progress Institut la statistique études économiques 2015a: Muddling Sense Marin (ed Future Ashgate: Aldershot UK: 489–520 2015b: Unduly Idealistic Inevitable? Debates T Search Coherence: Sketching Sustainable Well-Being Michaelson Edward Elgar Publishing: 17–67 Lathti V-M Cook Jousilahti Society Principles Applications Inequalities: Perspective ETUI Brief Pistolesi 2007: Une réduction l’inégalité dans revenu salarial France? Revue d’Economie Politique 117: 91–117 Together: Publishing Students Know Do: Mathematics Volume Outlook Divided Stand: Keeps Growing Unequal? 77 Mapping At-Riskof-Poverty Rates Press: 1–59 Excessive Imbalances Euroforum Needs OSE Opinion Observatory Tough Nuts Crack Background Pia benefited curtailed crisis-hit (Italy exception) recommend forcefully tools area-wide stance sceptical (Claeys extraordinary symmetric binding Sapir youth graded tenure once picks observable hardest surges long-lasting marking lowering excluding actions Bank’s decision Outright Transactions (OMT) July diverged substantially pricing businesses Fiscal aggravated (youth) disadvantage seem spared 79 advisable unproductive generation Lastly burden-sharing safeguarding adjusting retirees (Musgrave rule) concerned dangerous legacy establishing throughout peaked recovering Youth NEET differences: Ireland) peaking 30% declined Seven gone down Europe-wide document detail divide: = years; (rather so) expenses one-week holiday meal involving chicken fish every heating durable colour television car payment arrears (mortgage bills hire purchase instalments loan payments) above-mentioned items; ‘young training' (NEET rate) accurate 25–49 50–64 (working old) materially deprived (Table Nordics Finland) Cyprus) (70% 83% respectively) (2007–2013) observed deteriorating saw valid slowdown items strain‘ ‘durables’ delay (Kreyenfeld Andersson Currie Schwandt immediate foregone activity explores worrisome Arguably longlasting (Bell Blanchflower 2010; Arulampalam 2001; Gregg Tominey demographics possibly uncertainty mistakes made; April premature recessions (Darvas followed (6 2%) (4 Family (2) emerge: grasp Unsurprisingly sharpest soared grew responds business strongly disproportionate (Boeri asymmetries Darvas Tschekassin us Has people? hugely Macroeconomic ink spilled Generally speaking workings discretionary Barbiero gross collapsed exaggerating countries’ arguably beneficiaries category exceeded CEE EU27* Core Total 46 1** gov_10a_exp in-kind maternity geared excludes *Excluding (due limitations) **Excluding PT; AT; SK; –0 –2 –1 footnote introduced expense vice versa reforms3 lacking doubtful Greek parliament adopted unprecedented overhaul cutbacks Similar ‘sustainability factor’ retirement) passed restricts Prime Mario Monti (Box confidence implicit compromising enacted box (2015a) Elsa Fornero Italian near collapse stalemate Financial operators turning backs auctions took exaggerated interest 10-year bonds similar-type 500 (more has) refinance €1 billion welltested attack rhetoric breakdown corner possibility expiring reimbursed real; civil salaries administrations suppliers coin afflicting buoyant shadow self got high-productivity electronics chemicals drugs concentrated labour-intensive fashion-oriented ‘made Italy’ products encountering stiff developing technocratic harsh enough convince deserved trusted debtor sensible (albeit reluctant) approval Members realise savings eliminate 87 turned concluded registration press lumped calling ‘Esodati’ exodus deserving safeguarded irrespective voluntarily lump severance 000 safeguard clause 160 widespread protests call strike ‘lump fallacy’ premise assertion extension disregarded goal generational rebalancing reform) failure convey me regret shortcomings Short-term absent: ‘Rescue decree terminating May infraction procedure excessive deficit initiated drastically distortions (law 214/2011) restructuring (also emergency) speeded Notional Defined Contribution (NDC) (including Parliament) method calculation restore credibility formula unfamiliar ‘too severe’ parametric statutory seniority age; aligned 2018 men; indexed requisites ‘generous’ DB (Defined Benefit) receiving froze indexing 400 month nullified Constitutional Court re-established evaluations Most revise Due emergency parliamentary presented approved weeks confidence) customary displaced expecting retire trusting laws estimate Istituto Nazionale della Previdenza Sociale (INPS) pre-funded privately pay-asyou-go (European 2015a) longevity public-private sé obliges collectively intergeneration risksharing set-up (Schokkaert Parijs 2003) persons spending: longSource: Women Men detailed discussion) invariant a) 2060 c) relationship ongoing forecasts counterparts useful 20-year-olds approaching helps (keeping viceversa perfectly 45° line continental close (2009 assures crowding stating ‘benefit-ratio’) Let assume fixed Imagine unpredictable entirely hits ‘lose’ allocating divided economy-wide projection schemes: (a) indexation rules (b) (c) estimates Schokkaert (2003) Myles (2002) Vandenbrouke shortly Analysing track moved biased more-or-less Further north Italy: exhibited greatest cutting impacts movements Comparing exercises suggesting better-than-expected (2007 trendline Private investors interested 2015b) hardly Recommendation: Address dualism markets: Once picked two-tier permanent (young) Graded accumulate Except hands Former Commissioner Lazlo Auditors (€12 2020) monitoring proceeding eca eu/Lists/ECADocuments/INSR15_03/ INSR15_03_EN pdf Engagement (YEF) qualifications securing YEF £16-million payment-by-results Funding (SIBs) constitutes marks inter alia possibilities discussing strengthening designs biggest legacies Bentolila Boeri (2011) ultra-secure solution: unlikely depressed counteract counterweight policies; apprenticeship traineeship establishment recommendation guarantee: http://eur-lex eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32013H04 26(01)&from=EN 93 Concentrating mistake announcements suffers primarily capital) inherit preserved game-changer high-quality fostered contributes positively pointed promoted accessible eu/social/main jsp?l angId=en&catId=1044&newsId=1807&furtherNews=yes (Thimann 98% leeway relying exclusively reasons: Irresponsible spill-over effects; exceptional Create stabilization mechanism: tool room 94 worried friendly re-establishing Prioritise composition: Cuts backbone game changer Safeguarding Strengthen publicprivate incorporate allocated proposing 2020-2040 lines Entrepreneurship (EFER) Harvard Prince’s Trust (YBI) expert Horizon 2020 Access Risk Finance Advisory She author entrepreneurship Prior GV Partners venture firm honors Bachelors Management Carnegie Mellon MBA Affiliate her she Trainee Stance Blue Book Stagiaire Exchange ERM II Unit DG ECOFIN Bachelor Master Tor Vergata thesis imbalances fluent English Gioannini Oxenford Mari Pantsar Mariacristina Rossi Eulalia Rubio Eric Thode Director regularly testifies Ministers’ meeting (Bundestag) (Assemblée Nationale) minister’s Conseil d’Analyse Economique Solvay School’s advisory board team Deutsche Bundesbank adviser Bonn Toulouse Pittsburgh Passau previously taught Université libre Bruxelles Bulgarian Spanish columns cited Wall Street Caixin Nikkei El Pais La Stampa FAZ Handelsblatt Echos BBC ZDF Senior Structural Industry Directorate Kauffman 2008-2012 Associate Saïd Visiting Lecturer Stockholm Riga founder consulting Her Member Z Sickness Health: Protecting Supporting 2014/02 Problem 2014/03 Diamond Lodge Gallie 2002: Need Budgetary Projections (2008–2060) 2/2009 Including Implementing 2014-2020 Communication Regions (2013–2060) 3/2015 Wage Scare Male 12: 487–509 Adema Fron Ladaique Really Expensive? 1980–2012; Manual (SOCX); Migration 124 Alvaredo Piketty Saez Historical 27(3): 1–21 Scarring? Effects Experiences Wages 11(475): 585–606 Bell Unemployment: Déjà vu IZA 4705 Cahuc Dolado Barbanchon Two-tier Labor Great Recession: 5340 Dualism Thematic Seminar Segmentation People Bonoli Natali Claeys drawbacks brief Short- Fertility Proceedings Academy 11(41) Cynamon Fazzari Recession Slow Recovery 97 2006: 44(2): 369–390 Euro-area Governance: Do 2015/01 2003: Debate 13(3): 245–279 Thimann Microeconomic Cannot Solve 29(3): 141–164 Kersbergen Vis Reform: Retrenchment Game Left Town? Administration 48(7): 883–904 Imbalance Approaches Kreyenfeld Socioeconomic Nexus: Advances 21: 59–73 Knew It? 1–30 1986: Reappraisal Financing Vol Brighton: Wheatsheaf Books: 103–122 Contract Elderly Pierson Doing Families Glance G20 Impact Investment: Base Petmesidou Guillén Austerity Threat Observatoire Européen is: values? ambitions Ambition #1 capacity-building servants complexity interdependency #2 customer satisfaction cross-sectoral #3 exploring representative rapid debt) renewal practices respond ecological responding problems) compensating citizens) identifying actualising independent profoundly reforming 99 mindsets everyday Naturally tips implementing overcoming rigidities Appendix #4 Support #5 preparing definitions adopting forerunners enhancing competitiveness! embracing market-based development) foundation fulfilling promises (often security) poverty4 impaired diverging education) sluggish burdened heated post-war presently entered sphere guiding viewed separately rarely Accordingly societies: wish widened (Hüttl Perceptions vary variation models1 entitled reform2 similarities ideologies forming traditionally equality3 gained pressure: cracks Voting searching channels arena occupied populist freedom speech classical social-democratic (Scandinavian) corporatist (Continental) (Anglo-Saxon) nowadays complemented classifications owing fields regime (Palier Diverging exist 101 abuse prevalent (Hämäläinen reversible solved resource-intensive production prevailed lifestyles6 vigorous resource begin governing socio-economicecological (Dryzeck ultimate boundaries feel well-being7 renewing interconnection 2013a) generated satisfies minimal exceed nature’s (Hirvilammi Helne purposeful behaviour alert burning frames model? transform ‘sustainable societies’ aiming planet5 presented: thread Aiming anthropocentric identical inbuilt physiological single-parent incoherent derive psychological hurriedness depression loneliness substance 2013a; 102 physical interaction environments Active decarbonisation stagnation concentrates adopts mid- motivation benefits) unfortunate avoidance 2013; timely avoid criminal ‘enable’ transport ‘activate’ helping upgrade calibrated preventing proven genetics lifestyle well-defined organised? system? Which sector? eased jurisdiction silo-based fragile prone crises interdependence fewer hierarchical sub-optimised silos collaboration reframing aggravation likelihood resilient granted ‘leading’ Asian competition: top-level expertise innovativeness diligence respects (Turkki Micklethwait Wooldridge renew Particularly responsive future-looking ecologically outdated orderly predictable interconnected capitalised reconstruction hungry consumers ladder operate mandates bureaucratic turf illustrated Leading include: interdependent facing? leadership capabilities policy-making? (Section allocate provision? legitimisation policies? policy? continue way? 7) abstract (Bevir involved solving (Hufty relations) persist ‘correct’ transparent participatory fixes responsibilities) subsector variety cross-cut restricted disciplinary retirements connection scarce manner8 uses thwarted sectoral silos9 reallocated usually subunit optimisation sharing purposes Often planned isolated bureaucracy structured vision bureaucracies parochial quo settling modest health-service agree turmoil reallocation Resource upheld planning units vigorously guarding Annual budgeting zero-sum second-order sector-specific cross Major first-priority cross-societal dispersed departments holistic turns tunnel narrow preventive statements declared desired hierarchies cross-sector cross-level interdependencies adaptive overwhelm tried circumvent decentralising meant ‘agencification’ fragmentation bigger fragmented ICT Decentralising scattered compatible communicate centralisation subsystems applications X-Road e-Estonia emerge capacities:* sensitivity perception incipient discontinuities real-time sense-making Collective Learning interacting collaborating Fluidity fast mobilisation (re)deployment competencies operational underpinning agility Ability mobilise multiple subunits Effective utilisation decentralised facilitating Evolutionary evolutionary niche experimentation (Rammel den Bergh advice 107 Worldwide (Kaufman governance12 high-income emphasise resilience precondition conscious pathways bureaucrats (Gallop consciously Societal competencebuilding non-profit participants Measured voice violence regulatory law corruption reappeared barely lucrative officials non-activating freeing expend needs) radical predict interrelated Subsequently appeared once-and-forall (Forss Kanninen carefully Finland10 Netherlands11 decided conduct experiment After city Utrecht announced unconditional stipend cover Dutch cities experiments Singapore prosperous professional diligent Civil administration networked assisted courses formers ‘Leadership policy‘ Finland’s jointly society’s (understood manner) incorporated invitation Participants (public society) builds utilise eye-opening visits joint creates visions attempting solve feedback (2014–2015) networks participants’ 109 rotation goal-setting) Following beside enabler future-oriented building suffice Recommendations: Set agendas Invest next-generation establish Encourage Initiate governance-related experiences representatives administrative intact moderate strategically flexibly easy13 (Mulgan 2009) foresight goal-setting hindered opportunism electoral disconnected proper infrastructure databases) resourcesharing recognised professionals measuring obstacle cross-cutting Fragmented transferable jurisdictions investor beneficiary scrutiny ambiguous survival adapting task shape agency mention Turning cost) mounting urban phenomena separate suboptimisation party bears Resources duplicated tie incremental improvements confronting Assigning phenomenabased phase organising minister posts) allocations phase) destructive battles action-planning staff agreement (particularly ministries agencies) whose continuous adaptation broken targets evaluated (political service) follow adjust reallocation) continuously know faring (accountability credibility) Setting impact-measurement outcome-evaluation extremely visionary whole-of-government (local national* EU) wicked reaching cohesive wide-spread (10 prioritised challenges/ ‘turning business’ Or healthcare: ‘from curing sicknesses equalitarian manner’ (Government Organising (money people) (derived goal) redeployed (ROI) ending completely ministry 112 meaningful entities customised knowing Awareness) Flexibility) legitimately Choice) Customers subjects satisfied Efforts mass-produced rigidly holistically customer-orientated personalised multidisciplinary customers prefer personally willing tight Break individualised tailored Advanced humancentric aware e-Estonia14 co-creation customisation expediently outweigh Estonian Electronic Registry patient handled sources test online doctors quick Patient Portal protects privacy e-estonia com) customers’ gives Another ownership tested: Awareness: my ” Choice: choose Flexibility: regarding Awareness Choice Flexibility Applies Does Somewhat applies Don't 114 Design programmes) real-life exclusion*) people’s activities) Co-create engagement risk-of-poverty populations17 Recent (Tillmann Gagné presumed constraints legitimised strengthened ‘democracy’ ‘rule’ monarchy oligarchy Empowering everyone abilities strongholds (both cognitive) sensemaking Regular ideally well-performing legitimising declining15 manifest parties16 skewed voting citizens’ willingness polls (Thies Voter turnout election voter 70% 80% 1960s 66% 67% Biezen electorate except (Van 116 instrumental expressing Citizens systematically proposals mini-publics18 assemblies19 crowdsourcing complete engaged Participatory participate digitisation gather Open potentials commissions mini-public commission randomly answers ethical event lasting powers eligible referendums elect behalf municipal councils re-engage (Smith on-line consultations utilised failed 2007) strengthens alertness Gathering valuable Crowdsourcing modification constitution went citizen Citizens‘ signing petition submitted Ministry platform facilitates Anyone supporters campaigning specialists frame language acceptable Marriage Law marry gender) decide designated libraries acquisition citizen-based community (Sillanpää residents’ brings marginalised appropriately Britain experimented True ‘open data’ re-used anyone (Halonen opening datasets Transparency vigilant wasteful organisation’s accordingly creative re-use signed machine-readable default Making readily forerunner 118 Citizen conflict Involving slows Democratic voices municipalities world21 institutionalised one-time reinventing participedia net/en action-based bypass stretching frustration grown rigidity accomplish banks well-beingrelated Direct Restaurant Days20 Realising unwise get Decision-makers open-mindedly evaluate advantages disadvantages boldly scaling flaws Day food carnival thousands one-day restaurants worldwide restaurant café bar happen anywhere: street garden park beach volunteers restaurateurs running restaurantday org/en 119 Broaden Increase co-operation communities walks transferring motivating administrators grass-root institutionalise guaranteed unemployed) unrepresented requisite labourers occupations re-examined Danish hiring let model: broadens ‘Mobication’ retraining acquiring outsourcing corporations generating shareholders dominant assumption transformation22 stakeholder struggling reside civic government’s agents lobbyists life-time multilevel systems-of-systems ‘panarchies ’ (Gunderson Holling 2002) organisational cultural behavioural 121 available24 empower engaging Interestingly banks) exchanging co-evolution Collaborative dialogical defensive self-interests funding25 Society’s daily Legislation influencing recycling smoking bans places Shifting steer bicycle paths vouchers foods stores energy-efficient appliances bear mind stakeholders23 demonstrated re-examining peer-to-peer unofficial communality dawning assetbased keener capable Digitisation connects producers activate Promoting electronic monitor homes Intelligent habits Taking consumers’ removing ‘orchestrating’ system-wide ‘macro-organisational’ ‘system stewardship role’ (Hallsworth acts co-operative network substitution positioned arrange ultimately encourages spreading effected fundraising copyrights premises rigid uncontrollable investing* ‘owner’ operator materialise arrangement pays earns profits return) vehicle teaches (zero-sum game) investing’ wording synonym investment’ Various Scotland capitalising asset-based communities’ know-how spare community’s ‘Older Older People’ remote felt borrow recycle compromise Internet voluntary spirit intangible orchestration Utilise community-based Evaluate Explore partnerships role26 talk rationale reactions duties inequities functions) inputs wishes survive flourish contributors sizeable cornerstone invasive Protection Method Coordination rests soft-law guidelines benchmarking method’s peer involves (EU 2013b)28 prioritise modernise 2013b) guidance pillars 2000): knowledge-based declaration unity discourse implied (Soromenho-Marques domination encouraged exists ensue Humphrey Marshall Hobbes Otto Bismarck 1961 Charter treaty culminated Emmanouilidis EMU (Delbecque resist weighty fear EU-critical eurosceptic exit reluctance Substantial discreet respondents lacks recovery reorganise person’s shortterm qualify Free-riding (experience ratings) clawbacks neutralise drawdown Sebastian Dullien affiliated Relations (ECFR) analysed (Dullien diminishing allocation poorer opposition Enabling standards: Pressure reforms: transfers: Strongly Disagree Agree disagree 128 partnership progress29 (Stahl Spinaci citizen’s acceptance Decisions cabinets Brussels30 aided chorus Nor shortcuts sudden escalation expanding migrant challenging plans unforeseeable Covenant Mayors pilot mayors CO2 renewable energies format Owing temporarily treaties Troika (International Commission) Because reflective Foresight name supportive Subsidiarity strive recognising enhances feeling 129 visioning) Apply Designing shed decision-making) Increased concentrating asked elementary ‘welfare’ ‘state’ invests planet’s sole ‘society’ reform: 131 Diversity trust-based benefitting compromises representation characteristic social-investment applying Phenomena-based Thus alignment pursued detached counteracting motivate belong accounting 132 transforming initiating redefine aspects) integrates historical Asia) abandon Individual powerless orchestrating society-wide client evaluator) release Increasingly Nokia 1984 positions Vice Strategy Infrastructure Itella Corporation Kesko Kuntien Tiera Oy Telia-Sonera Fifth Element Helsinki honorary professorship Budapest books articles Yves Fast Strategy: Agility Will Help You Stay Ahead Deal Lead facilitation Expert Panel Previously Sitra’s headed Landmarks demand-based rural preparation Forest Decision-Makers (1996– forestry doctoral science-policy interface interactive warm thanks Jenna Lähdemäki versatile workshop manuscript Heli Nissinen Paula Laine Kalle Nieminen Veera Heinonen express VES chairing manager constructive Susann Bartels assitance nominated comment lively insightful Bertoncini Kostera (Bertelsmann Stiftung) Viriato SoromenhoMarques (University Lisbon) Lars Thies benefitted Chaired INSEAD Presidency Conclusions March 2013a: Well Limits Planet: Environment Action 2013b: 2014–2010 COM(2013)83 Forss O Miten testata perustulon vaikutuksia? Kenttäkoekulttuurin lyhyt oppimäärä Ajatushautomo Tänk article sitra fi/en/news/future/think-tanktank-field-experiment-best-way-test-basic-income Gallop Sector Art Mandarin Land Solutions: Juha Sipilä’s 12/2015 Gunderson Nature Nature: Obstacles Adaptive Capacity Resilience stockholmresilience org/21/research/ research-news/11-13-2012-learning-by-doing html Panarchy: Understanding Transformations Natural Systems Washington: Island Hallsworth System Stewardship: Policy-Making Halonen Data: Applicability Submitted Unpublished Bevir Short Chang Rowthorn 1995: Role WIDER Clarendon Delbecque Proposal Stabilisation Document 384 Harlow England: Wharton August Scheme: Provide Gütersloh: Dryzek Institutions Anthropocene: Earth British doi:10 1017/S0007123414000453 Publication King Baudouin (EPC) 136 Kaufmann Kraay Mastruzzi Indicators: Methodology Issues 5430 Loorbach Transition Development: Prescriptive Complexity-based Framework 23(1): 161–183 Fourth Revolution: Race Reinvent Mulgan Mobilizing Power Knowledge Systems: Consolidation Reviews Bismarck? Rammel Minimising Ecological 47: 121–133 Sillanpää Deliberating Delivery Budgeting Implications: Facilitate Adjustment Renewal Societies? Heiskala Innovations Performance: Processes Industrial Sectors Cheltenham Society: Blocks Socio-economic Version Wicked Problems: Systemic Beyond: Discourse Lahti Hirvilammi Paradigms: Sketch Wellbeing Ecosocial 6(4): 2160–2175 Hufty Investigating Processes: (GAF) Wiesmann Hurni co-editors: Swiss Competence (NCCR) North–South Bern Switzerland: Geographica Bernensia: 403–424 137 Smith Innovations: Cambridge: Soromenho-Marques Heading? Stahl 2020: Multi-Level Challenge Delivering Centre: 59–66 Tillmann Von Performern Prekären: Wird Deutschland eine Demokratie der Besserverdienenden? Einwurf 3/2105 Turkki Aasia haastaa valtio- ja demokratiakäsitystämme uudistumaan Sitran selvityksiä forthcoming as: Asia conceptions studies Mair Poguntke Going … Gone? Decline Party Membership Contemporary 51(1): 24–56 decision-makers* try another’s feeds ‘collective knowledge’ intelligence recognition specialisations thinktanks Refresh inevitable creativity Arrange safe scientific paradigms communication highlight contradictions ‘wisdom crowds’ co-design coproduction (A) (B) integrative (C) (D) initiate (E) Reflective strategy-level originates collision occurs Integrative path Overcoming 139 heading directing Ensure Reallocate appreciation Recognise reward brilliance Give managerial bottlenecks mission platforms networking suddenly swiftly pools crossfunctional teams (shared crossministerial Offices (PMO) reallocating cross-ministerial crosssocietal Adopt ‘whole government’ (monetary Enable multipurpose resourcing designating portion belonging 140 Scale mainstream emotional interactional urge symbolic mottos logos rebranding symbolise Introduce Seed ranks converts genuinely emotions factual motives dissonance Use Build Listen articulate utilises envisioning inertia consolidate collaborates closely ‘stewardship’ constructions unrest crosssectoral phases: Identify system’s intricacies frontrunners visionaries alternate Choose tested spaces conducting 141 Practice playful selfinterest Engage ‘translational leaders’ skillfully Navigate Implement last; relationships align hierarchy Extend co-contracting Prepare negotiation © c/o Carl-Bertelsmann-Straße 256 33311 vision-europe-summit eu Responsible Editing Authors Nicole Meyerholz Bielefeld Picture engy1 / Fotolia com Forums Trends Contact Manager Phone: +49 5241 81-81485 katharina barie@bertelsmann-stiftung 81-81576 susann bartels@bertelsmann-stiftung 81-81581 eric thode@bertelsmann-stiftung