The Active Welfare State Revisited

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CSB WORKING PAPER centreforsocialpolicy eu October 2012 No 12 / 09 The Active Welfare State Revisited Frank Vandenbroucke University of Antwerp Herman Deleeck Centre for Social Policy Sint-Jacobstraat 2 B – 2000 fax +32(0)3 265 57 98 Working Paper ABSTRACT This paper revisits social policy developments in Belgium the decade 2000-2010 on basis stylized facts with regard to spending employment caseload dependency rates and poverty With it focuses long-term evolution Belgian public extent which observed pattern accommodated perceived emergence new risks By means ‘budgetary effort indicators’ analysis disentangles impact demographic evolutions from deliberate shifts broad priorities In addition addresses some critical points performance welfare state such as rising number children at risk need anticipate ageing (briefly) structural changes parts health care system I conclude that preparing next wave reform is imperative this country Corresponding author: frank vandenbroucke@kuleuven be KULeuven Onderzoeksgroep Economie en Overheid Naamsestraat 69 – bus 3565 B-3000 Leuven Introduction 1 (very briefly) As reader may aware author played an active policymaking role during part period under consideration; hence evaluation based figures occasionally complemented a more intuitive assessment grounded experience always flux overview imperative; preparation should guided by set clear objectives evidence- judgment first section provide outline prevailing orientations years To end refer insights terminology emerged 1990s notably distinction between ‘new’ ‘old’ concomitant ‘a state’ past understood chapter longer ongoing story Section describes succeeded accommodating Did programmes replace traditional security schemes? And if ‘crowding out’ did occur was phenomenon 2000s or rather longer- term trend? cash benefits financial However since important driver A shorter version focusing retrospective published Françoise Thys Etienne de Callataÿ Christian Valenduc (eds ) History Public Finance Volume VII Leuven: Universitaire Pers For thorough discussion see (2001); survey reforms Vleminckx (2011); Hemerijck Marx (2010) recent challenges reports Segaert (2009 2010) EU ASISP network Jones (2008) provides interesting account political dimension economic adjustment (and Netherlands) 3 summarily sketches central topics previous explained below governments tried reconcile two strategic were deemed embody ‘active state’: maintain improve where possible adequacy benefits; enhance incentives order increase 4 present inputs serve these activation Sections 5 6 7 discuss outcomes sketch ‘benefit dependency’ labour market participation while discusses whether not performed ‘efficiently’ respect making focus particular child literature ‘new emphasizes invest linking Hence successful constitutes litmus test exercise Other than there are worrying signs warrant reconsideration our 8 briefly problem pension 9 concludes 1. ‘New’ 2000s: presentation Since mid-1990s vast body has develop Three core ideas resonate publications: advent notion investment development services Unemployment old age ill sickness disability burden raising seen constituting states have catered increasingly well Second World War category one might list following (Bonoli 2006): (i) impossibility family responsibility paid labour; (ii) single parenthood; (iii) member; (iv) low inadequate schooling; (v) insufficient coverage due canonical statement Esping-Andersen et al (2002) restatement arguments vein Morel (2012) (2013) framed terms largely sympathetic to) example lack access adequately insured insider positions second acknowledges remediate impacts retrospectively preferable prevent them occurring place through training jobseekers investing education lifelong learning Both goals addressing imply counselling alongside Bismarckian model historically belongs considered ‘cash-heavy’ sense gives priority transfers over Scandinavian contrast service-heavy orientation towards ‘capacitating’ service provision put forward third idea implies dual ambition modernizing so would cope satisfactorily needs contemporary societies ensuring its sustainability argument favour shift capacitating unchallenged scholarly debate Cantillon argues become less ‘pro-poor’ because policies budgets’ (i e budgets catering risks’) tend flow higher income groups whilst opposite true She explains fact work-related thus strongly income- related they make service- oriented; redistributive (Cantillon 2011; thesis 2011) Cantillon’s echoes fundamental tenet Deleeck’s oeuvre his 1983 book ‘Matthew effect’ (Deleeck 1983): benefit budget) middle class lower replacement functions overall equilibrium created necessary reasons legitimacy Yet Matthew effects do tilt balance summarize what exercised much research Here cite ‘risks’ listed Bonoli (2006: 5-8) ubiquitous my opinion somewhat misleading often (but always) concerns situations people control themselves their ‘strike’ Perhaps needs’ accurate phrase ‘Het totaal beeld toont een verdeling waarbij per slot van rekening onderste lagen resp niet-actieven meer opnemen aan vervangingsinkomens hogere actieven uit collectieve goederen diensten (…) Zulk totaalbeeld hierboven verklaard hand structurele culturele examine shifted risks’ delivery general (including care) last 25 It assess distributive but remains crucial question further (see forthcoming) 1999 Verhofstadt government itself task turning into called akin proposed Its aim combine risk’ preventative also emphasizing adequate cater (Vandenbroucke 1999; attempt redefine change developing complementary strategy: add ones other Belgium’s characterized status-preserving distinctions those blue-collar white-collar workers self- employed persons employees statutory civil servants Would entail radical departure legacy? Certainly course self-employed obtained virtually identical rights7 reimbursement servants; pensions incapacity been significantly upgraded These alignments additional expenditure without corresponding extra revenue Specific professional artists onthaalmoeders/gardiennes d’enfants factoren differentiële opname enerzijds anderzijds kan eveneens worden vanuit het politieke sociale besluitvormingsproces De belastingsdruk ten nadele door dezen enkel duurzaam aanvaard mate dat zij ruil hiervoor stelsel voorzieningen ontwikkeld zien hen voldoende aandeel profijt overheid laat opnemen’ 1983: 371) final effect 2001: 342- 343 inspired literature; concurrently had ideational influence beyond politics promoted conceptualization level actor launch Open Method Coordination Inclusion instance influential Why We Need New (Esping-Andersen 2002) outcome project sponsored Government There still difference basic amount supplement rank eliminated before constitutional agreed Di Rupo implemented contribution increased sector pragmatic way Thus pragmatically universal could argued doing once countering fifth Nonetheless ad hoc measures alter fundamentally legacy status-based pillars design Although mutual conception copy-paste True became key objective II government; observation profiles emerged;9 high agenda (as 1990s) But no explicit reference made discourse overcoming differentiation within featured prominently notions ‘new-versus-old-risks’ ‘services- versus-cash’ hindsight pursued (1999- 2003) summarized orientations: i. ii. create lowering taxes earned personal contributions bottom wage scale; iii. bolster competitiveness demand employers’ substituting contributions;10 growing prevalence chronic illness both support chronically quality (specific problems already Dehaene issue only took centre stage I) same emphasis expansion upgrading renewal institutionalized elderly funded federal budget beginning organization Zorgverzekering Flemish Community introduced 2001 can response archetypal reflects mixture semi-Bismarckian (it partially contributions) semi-Beveridgean offers flat rate who qualify) elements does answer consider sub-optimal choice driven breakthrough visible ‘social security’ aspect considerations efficiency space forbids pursue here 10 pledged assured implied (possible) deficits caused decreasing compensated alternative funding mechanisms iv. guarantee better protection measures; v. accommodate ‘rebound’ after austerity 1990s; vi. firmly establish future pensioners pillar sector-based view democratizing similar say (2003-2007) added implement ‘close monitoring’ unemployed; tackle early exit Simultaneously strive surpluses prepare cost ageing; option establishment so-called Silver Fund 11 challenge how successfully ‘8+1’ above representation dominated turned out continue feature post-Verhofstadt 2008-2010) inevitably involves degree hineininterpretieren case all taken programmed politically outset initial (orientation supra) relatively modest compared substantial improvements half decade12 pressure trade unions mobilization against Generation Pact moulded close interaction employers organizations Furthermore impression totally new; accelerating reinforcing line previously launched (Adnet 2002: 165) principle least reflect package scheme whereby aside separate later use; transparent credible budgetary being used (or pre-funding for) super-ministerial council’ 2004 Raversijde point Subsequently presented Parliament 2005 led formal entrenchment linkage standard living (by yearly allowed linkage) Rather detailed individual propose allows cross-country comparison conducive understanding presents just successive able deliver promise above; additionally prior onset crisis spectacular 1970s 1980s gradually approaching sustainable ‘equilibrium’ stabilized ratios (average divided average wages self-employed) stable will leave second-pillar restrict remarks 2. spending: stability 2.1. Figure shows 42 data NAI-NBB Relative GDP spectacularly 1970 14 2% 24% GDP; then declined remained until 2007 structure changed considerably: represented larger share total today 1: 1970-2011 % ‘Early retirement career termination’ ‘Other’ included ‘Working age’ Source: own calculations NBB 2008 considerable impact: percentage reaching 2011 13 most automatic stabilizing either (unemployment benefits) decrease when decreases (child …); minor traced generosity leniency temporarily unemployed reached unprecedented cannot compare OECD SOCX Eurostat ESSPROS go 2009 comprehensive definition (relative GDP) ppt according comparable weighted EU15 using base slightly three neighbouring countries (+ ppt) 2.2. Accommodating demography now turn 1985-2007 Expenditure Database (OECD SOCX) fine-grained Over illustrates relative So conceived seems archetype ‘immovable object’ described Pierson seminal work non-retrenchment (Pierson 2001) applied levels 1985 amounted 26% 24 6% 1989 again 26 9% 1993 4% 3% latest year available context periods stand GDP: 1989-93 2000-2007 (1989 2000) environment: unemployment 1992; recession 1998 onwards doubt role: we 1988 followed le retour du cœur 1989-1991; renewed meet Maastricht euro-entry criteria use divide five categories four associated risks:15 (2011) Meeusen Nys methodology uses restricted ‘public’ (in ESSPROS) function ‘old ‘private spending’ contains private includes statistics (amongst others life insurance Eurostat); why increases very rapidly ESSPROS’s (larger) ‘public 15 serves precise description care; survivor) programmes; families working including housing assistance… excluding categorized ‘new’; allowances cash; programmes’ policies16 maternity parental systems) each show covering frail expanding ‘career break’ ‘leave’ systems classified ‘traditional’ (respectively even comparisons circumspection for; Deken (forthcoming) lists difficulties partitioning ‘risk’ defined 16 expenditures programmes: administration; training; job- rotation job-sharing; incentives; supported rehabilitation; direct job creation; start-up 2: Table ‘turning points’ organize programs (% Health 0 Old (incl survivors) excl ben (of unemployment) Child Maternity Elderly ALMP Total ‘old risks’ 23 22 ‘new (old new) ‘New subsequently approached unweighted schemes neighbours post-unification Germany France Netherlands (Below benchmark ‘our neighbours’; obviously conceals different trajectories concerned profile modernized sight hallmark basically considered; main happened At aggregate indicate; however qualify time decreased words replaced trajectory recorded internal dynamics Between sum old-age reduced marginally Old-age decelerated reasons: declining weight survivor global discussed qualifications) 1996 stricter requirements women 60 65 latter measure inducing remarkable reversal trends employee retirees 915 annum 1991 1997 accelerated 259 fuelled ill- decision abolish reduction coefficients 17 654 began accelerate postponement mainly smaller contained (Festjens forecast 5% 168 500 induced unemployment-based Herremans (2006) estimates phase forms inactivity; exclude ultimately contributed Until i pensionable penalized coefficient example: entailed 25%) abolished; maintained logic behind abolishment ‘brugrustpensioenen’ constituted entry 60-64 bracket minimum upgrade older retirees’ reconnect standards registers 43 volume 1986 1992 virtual standstill six 1998) 33 S-shaped growth curve confirm Cutler’s thesis: succeed suppressing trend progress medical technology (I return below) 18 (- ppt); working-age (a comparatively (the 2007) result inevitable rebound ‘return trend’ characteristic prosperous 2007: surprisingly distress spends do; partly ‘Countries imposed constraints generally experienced about United Kingdom (after slow 1960s Canada 1970s) Japan 1980s) reason underlying dynamic caps eliminate technological change; suppressed manifestations adopted clearest price reductions noted large savings prices doctors quantity far long run cuts inherently limited reduce When falling resume cease ’ (Cutler 898) (and/or assistance pensions) quite apparent differences explain specificity extent: countries; ‘working-age benefits’ emerges heavy spender globo particularly break count offer explanation; small registered 19 30 steady erosion benefits: 1980 8% spent proportion diminished Obviously drivers (just presumably policies) calculate ‘spending capita’ capita: indices selected call indices’ RVA/ONEM indicate (loopbaanonderbreking/interruption carrière tijdskrediet/crédit temps) 08% 09% 19% comparative Budgetary (1985=100) ((Old spending)/(Pop 65+)) /(GDP/CAP) 100 92 93 78 77 ((Child care)/(Pop <5))/(GDP/CAP) 89 134 667 775 (ALMP/unemployed)/(GDP/CAP) 129 172 163 ((Family allowances)/(Pop < 20))/(GDP/CAP) 68 index review decline marked 2000; marginal earlier follow population Improvements checked downward Does inform us implicit intergenerational policy? First caveat denominator ratios: capita sources positively affected earnings presuppose deterioration necessarily contract perspective interpretation depends valuation retiree Today live claim longer; ratio matter) therefore interpreted improvement capital 65-year-old expect receive he she expected 20 ago Whether longevity regarded well-being moot am inclined increasing combination source 2012) highlight adjusted household size gradual ‘age allowances’ introduction premium lone parents disabled so- ‘yearly allowance’; dispersion selective (RKW Using individuals find child’ 68% young precondition consequence feminization documented Similarly (ALMP) match unemployed: ‘ALMP unemployed’ considerably qualifies evidence expense Except field ‘adding’ ‘replacing’ existing Moreover conceal occupational (‘direct creation’) (for regions Klerck Van Wichelen 2008) creation effective (which activation-oriented increase) service-oriented ‘in-kind 23% 34% Northern Anglo-Saxon never let alone ‘cash/services’ regrettable lacuna thinking institutional tensions polity Given adults obtain appears On hardly excluded 3. 3.1. norm After inauguration controversial limits supervision: practice permitted negotiated coalition partners annual approach offered advantage strong exerted actors (medical paramedical professions hospital managers funds) accept quid pro quo deserved drive greater modernization culminated ‘2002 Agenda Change Care’ emphasized striving professionals hospitals operational via non-linear correction linear recognition unjustified divergences sometimes though North South along regional lines signified acknowledgment predicated North-South remedy ‘split up system’ encourage choices Another 2002 Care General Practitioner (GP) topic worked detail special report Dr Karel Meulebroeke signalled start consistent efforts medicine established Knowledge (Federaal Kenniscentrum voor Gezondheidszorg) purpose evidence-based ‘health norm’ volume) unfortunate controversy run-up elections; efficiently That contain immediate management slowed down My must contrary perfectly legitimate health; rationally given importance attach healthy (Hall 2007; Murphy Topel 2006) Increasing facing good too mid-term argue fixing any indefinite bad 3.2. Agenda: perhaps revalorization Meeus Aubel concise ‘check up’ 45-54 nominal median GPs 77% subgroups profession Productivity patients GP (on + 25% FTE GP) Medical File (GMF 13% 54% GPs’ patients) home visits non-urgent cases … significant ‘fee-for-service’ mixed system: 97 remuneration consisted payments around 20% types capitation-like GMF lump accreditation ICT administration infrastructure local consultation …21 medicine: maintaining workforce serious near document persistent appropriateness relation first-line (e g breast cancer screening prescription antibiotics clinical biology imaging…) broader issue: picture newly Federal institution issued ‘performance assessment’ 2010 summarizing provisional findings follows: “In system’s accessibility; moderate safety; 21 Figures provided Ri Ridder RIZIV effectiveness preventive sustainability; curative continuity indicators [the reported caution limitations] [S]ome suggest healthcare efficient day pathways etc although signals appropriateness) ” (Vlayen 2010: 102) implementations designed promote responsible informed drugs prescribed hospitals) pharmaceuticals ‘reference prices’ generic accompanied various behaviour major cumulative aimed low-cost medication delivered ambulatory settings dramatically controlling volumes consumed campaigns ‘good practice’ guidelines National Council Promotion Quality (also 2002; Gerkens Merkur 61 110) hard gauge initiatives clearly instruments appear exert real ostensibly induce compliance posteriori’ recuperation rectifying undue diagnostic techniques medico-technical interventions appendectomy (Merkens Gerkur 56-59) Under known amount’ exhibiting outlier specified asked refund costs generated excess lot invested aftermath finally confined Consequently failed genuinely disparity hospitals: rounds discern amounts’ coincided heated inner-circle opt overconsumption reclaiming cost) prospective allocation ‘all-in relating Strong resistance blocked (although inserted possibility legislation) introducing all-in interference financing currently fees pathologies treated cumbersome bound challenged forcefully lesson learned requires convincing translated tangible incremental process proven innovative changing (albeit country) current indispensable; harder nut crack raises bargaining ‘medico-mut’) capable playing constructive transformation 3.3. Financial accessibility Historically organized fee- for-service involving out-of-pocket According Data out- of-pocket households UK Sweden 1% Switzerland co-payments reimbursable products actual reimbursed) constitute out-of- pocket components ‘supplements’ mean solidarity domain France: highly differentiated mitigated preferential reimbursement; consequently born severe conditions and/or incomes cited One Dutch reveals scores best solidarity’ ranked second’ ahead comes heart disease (Houkes Nevertheless limiting concern patient co- co-payment inhabitant take Maximum Billing (MAB) cap MAB combines selectivity universality suggesting juxtaposition ‘selectivity’ versus ‘universality’ abstract debates misguided: formula yet protective device accumulation helps Out-of-pocket official supplements (De Wolf Assuralia developed par (remaining 2003-2010 OECD) macro pose equity fairness sections Notwithstanding ‘containment’ Surveys group postpone 7% respondents complex poor background expenses relations realities urban Brussels (Mimilidis Demarest compulsory application ‘third payer’ belonging weaker (thereby eliminating prefund reimbursement) overdue Apart improving promotion Schokkaert affordability sufficient condition me elaborate upon inequality status (Van Oyen 4. typifying gather foremost (section 1) aspects side equation forget compensation side; board packages’; transition improved mitigate inactivity traps activation; 4.1. Benefit stabilization partial repair decades broaden scope till 2020 private-sector invalidity illness) temporary drawing Planning Bureau (FPB) Vil 3: Global gross salary) p 29 calculated dividing beneficiary informative token specific sub- branches compositional retired started leveled off reversed retrenchment ended confirmed FPB’s sub-categories Taken separately male female much; FPB documents 2009: came halted singles cohabitants heads) maximums branch super- ministerial momentum Mobilization wake formally entrenched decisions 2007-2009 An Net Income (NNI/cap) NNI/cap makes residual diverges employment/population non-elderly matter focused structuring beneficiaries giving halt continued minimums erode NNI (2009) considers hierarchy stalled general; shown net Next re-establish link aspiration restore principles (however leeway returning principles) Inkomensgarantie Ouderen (Garantie Revenus aux Personnes âgées) Gewaarborgd Inkomen Bejaarden/Revenu Garanti means-tested 2006 survivors re-emerged se nuanced Goedemé synthesis fit incapacitated characterize ‘residualization’) 4.2. indication determine avoiding packages disposable information (singles; parents; earner couples children; earners children) situations: full-time wage; unemployed23 benefit; maximum (below ‘unemployment’ shortcut unemployment); (leefloon/revenu d’intégration sociale) takes relevant parent ‘household income’ ‘income’ shortcut) evaluate (real corrected consumer index) expressed rough incentive implemented; simultaneously Adequacy 1999-2010 parent) Real wage) unemploym 14% 36% 16% 11% 100% 63% 70% 80% 109% 60% 84% 81% 117% 59% 93% 103% 106% 143% 87% 89% 98% 128% 82% 79% 90% 139% 72% 69% 127% 67% 22% 83% 91% 94% 134% 74% 120% CPI 57% 49% Note: Simulations months (if met) exist simulations Centrum Sociaal Beleid (STASIM model) thanks Kristel Bogaerts Four conclusions drawn except NNI/cap: single-earner saw purchasing power erosive NNI/cap; gain type (mainly ‘workbonus’) unchanged corroborate studies (Bogaerts 2008; Nevejan weak (neither absolute nor NNI/cap) Flanders tax reform) (Nevejan 35) segment note trap part-time Appendix update Bogaerts’s transitions non-employment drawn: Successive Inkomensgarantie-uitkering (IGU) enhanced fully move top-up IGU having equitable degrees effort); (with top-up) non-existent leefloon destroyed discontinuation exceeds certain depending contradictory preoccupations: fall loss full- income; motivated financially Fine-tuning applying resolve conundrum (cf infra) someone (according ‘progressive re- scheme’) boost seem incapacity) Reluctance behalf engage together interest advisors disappointing 4.3. turn: monitoring harsh sanctions Employment Conference September 2003 schizophrenia decentralization placement responsibilities availability decoupled Now reconnected inter-institutional cooperation agreement infamous article 80 code regulated systematic suspension whose ’abnormally long’ mechanism said brutal consequences (exclusion right warning look work) sub-category women) (since incorporated strategy) Article regulation covers initially under-50s) sanctions) works preventatively essence imposing punitive framework stricto sensu definitive exclusions 2009-2001 (5 906 cases) 30% 2001-2003; apart exclusions; 2009-2011 640 (RVA/ONEM) unsuccessful Cockx ‘transmissions’ national agency variety contraventions regulation: transmissions ensuing closely Finally mining drastically fight fraud resulted unrelated 5. 15-64 (data Clasen caseloads assistance) follows displaying peaked 1990 Then climbed peak flattening dropped boom apparently interact communicating vessels offset Despite slight banner diminish 4: Older exempted seeking ‘Unemployment’ summary Denmark table data) adding Caseload aged 15-64) Work Early (i-iv) 27 underscores among study Relatively namely substantially downside German Swedish performance: coin hinges contributors displays dependent regime 2030 (black line) 65+ 15+ (grey adult (15+) (dashed grey (changing) institutions: non-employed economically heyday breadwinner 5: Calculated Studiecommissie Vergrijzing supplied FPS Security Nicole Fasquelle Christophe Joyeux Guy Camp contributing 40% 1970s; nearly 1984; fluctuating 95% 1996) explosive change: constant reflecting mass Additionally rely familial (In trends; explanatory factors markets absorb baby boomers aspiring mid-1980s 1984 1994) market; returned (nearly) 1975 peaking manifested (de facto officially promulgated) Henceforth steep acceleration scenario assumes influenced 64 entitled big shocks hypotheses steadily Two observations moving ‘equilibrium configuration’ insofar interrelation continuation becomes pervasive push upwards From dependencies satisfactory What interruption decided government? dotted 85 (instead 86 scenario) 94 95 scenario); Report thank available) series pre-crisis 101 0) 90 results salaried important) negligible path reform: waves positive ‘volume’-impact neutralized ‘prize-effect’ pensions; 6. Individual employment: frozen landscape hysteresis joblessness 6.1. rates: gender educational attainment Walloon Regions brackets 2000-2008; comparing 2000-2011 2000-2008 highlights compares age-education sub-groups mentioned brackets) forecasts judged optimistic concerning reaction Neefs 55-64 paragraphs mention tables request (ppt) Wallonia (changes Belgiium 25-34 35-44 25-64 M V T Low-skilled -17 -11 -12 -4 -2 -7 -3 (-12 5) (-9 (-6 7) (1 4) (11 (4 9) (6 (-4 (-1 8) Medium-skilled -6 -0 (-2 (-0 (2 (9 3) (14 2) (0 High-skilled -1 6) (10 (-3 (12 (7 -15 -16 -5 (13 (3 (8 (15 x ≥ ≤ -10 -19 -9 (-14 (-7 (18 -8 Steunpunt WSE 6: Comparison (between (difference BE-EU15 FL-EU15 WA-EU15 (-8 (-13 (-11 (-15 (-10 -13 recovering shock (conflating age) attainment) youngest generation (25-29) suffered full ages skill cohort low-skilled numbers younger grow likewise Added voucher boosted Possibly strikingly men negative high-skilled 54 medium-skilled 44 cohorts 49 men) age-specific: generations declined; position secondary education) 41 skilled; assume counterparts Due skills outspoken 31 holds age: 50 sobering Even EU15: age/gender low-skilled; reality (much lags EU15) applies workers: over-50s Wallonia; over-55s across ‘problem profiles’ discrepancies averages age-related; primarily skills-related headcounts; converted equivalents European LFS obtain: ‘full-time equivalent’ 56 Hoge Raad Werkgelegenheid hours extensive shorter-working linked extensively administrative Geurts Already certainly actively jobs 28 mature sound entitlements safeguarded merits attention successes associate Service vouchers large-scale shifting (Gerard originality pathway lies open collective subsidized expensive operation Besides ‘buts’ consideration bottlenecks remain: nationwide age-related easy unambiguous causal Elements economy offering come fore emphatically possibilities Pact) shortcomings (unqualified inadequately qualified outflow) arises remain yield despite contributions? Activation ‘but’ probably inevitable: cheap consistency naive belief ‘bonuses’ wrong-headed Was employer 1999) served increases? wrong wiser secure commitment lose imperatives launching ambitious plan cut essentially face qualification needed facilitate dialogue economists tatonnement process: looking optimal subsidies get running beat illicit Initially deliberately Surprisingly sacrosanct governmental circles deduction purely deal held acknowledged bonus supply: like creates substitution positive: opportunity leisure increases) negative: constraint shifts) (Maes flaws bonuses employees) Overall cost-effectiveness ‘non-budgetary’ got ground issues blue modernize waiting addressed 6.2. Jobless households: overlooks distribution crucially influences traditionally level) patterns mean: employed) 18-59 jobless almost figure 4%); disquieting exceptional: many translate nowhere gap wide ‘polarization index’ hypothetical assuming distributed randomly Corluy highest polarization approx 10%) high; evidently top ‘job ranking’ (together UK) unlike nonetheless mathematical truism nature pooling play explanation (using 20-59) illustrate 50%; ‘jobless households’ (assuming households) 76%) polarized Germany: 32 Comparing belong Länder rates; lowest ‘middle group’ situated extremes illustrated ranking database (LFS SILC) normalized 54+) discarded pronounced (depending indicator used) 20-59 lives ‘pooling’ theoretically ceteris paribus Higher (33 vs 8%) 7. record: generational 7.1. record at-risk-of-poverty floating threshold equal equivalent They Survey Living Conditions (SILC) interpreting material deprivation data33 survey; SILC informs ‘SILC T’ T-1 Member States crisis; upshot paradoxically Belgium: estimate inferred Unchanged composition stabilizers intrinsic conventional If anchor freezing row 7: Age (%) Incomes At-risk-of-poverty BE <18 Poverty euro's 10328 10791 11678 12005 104 113 116 inflation 105 At-risk-of anchored 0% Material (> items) Inflation consumption T-1/T-2 site confidence intervals cautious cross- Below tests statistical significance (Table Discarding differs tendency Conversely downwards 34 corroborates 35 readily explained; value tells homeownership parameter assessing taking situation) ‘material deprivation’ 36 non- population; Continental Europe typically strong: affects warrants subsection 37 [18-64] (not here) (nominal 22%) 17%) sufficiently indicative robust afford nine items: pay rent mortgage utility bills; keep warm; unexpected expenses; eat meat proteins regularly; holiday; television set; washing machine; car; telephone ‘difficulties ends meet’ Economy SILC-based website ‘at-risk-of-poverty indicator’ EU’s inclusion overestimate underestimate strain headcount postponing (Section notwithstanding at- risk-of-poverty derived (Storms Storms’s suggests overestimation (most importantly non-working house sector) underestimation (certainly teenagers parents) vis-à-vis (notably elderly) energy school costs… campaigned ‘at-risk-of- poverty’ coordination (Atkinson 2002); useful simple common measuring rod fortiori wellbeing striking variation (FPS Economy) headcounts Insofar perceptible 7.2. children: decomposition Investing appeared leitmotif Esping-Andersen’s found weigh heavily explicitly advocated reallocation childhood vocational ensure knowledge-based contradiction privileging phases (“good begin birth” book) proper struck hereafter referred ‘children’ indicated zooms contrasting confine elucidating sample 8: (**) (Brussels) (***) subject margins error Calculations EU-SILC (based standardized income) thresholds sure integrated correct relying normative calculating yields intra-regional Belgian-wide threshold) harbours rich assume) Wallonia’s Applying Flanders: ‘diminishes’ statistically (again thresholds) (from mediocre performer EU27 Norway Iceland disregarding Malta) wish 9: Decomposition C D E F G H J K Country Some Difference by… 20-54 Transfers (excl pens Share work-rich work-poor DK 38 NO 84 40 Flanders-BE 91 IS FI 52 SI 82 67 Flanders-FL SE 59 NL 47 CZ 81 CY 83 AT DE 55 FR 88 SK BELGIUM EE IE 72 48 HU 73 LU 70 Wallonia-WA 74 PL PT LT GR 76 63 79 ES LV IT 87 Wallonia-BE 75 BG RO Avergae 62 Correlation (ongewogen gemiddelde correlaties alleen lidstaten) values (BE included) threshold; computations Wim Lancker Aaron den Heede Work-rich/work-poor cut-off 45% work-intensity (EU2020 definition) Columns C-G obvious encountered 2008: (column C); D); intensity38 ‘relatively E) Households intensity labelled ‘work-poor’ correlate (Flanders-BE Wallonia-BE) (Flanders-FL; Wallonia-WA) ourselves Nordic perform Southern worse map Europe) cluster figures: (68 6%) 4%) (percentage points) terms: few 45%): corresponds incomes) 9%; cf column D) decompose H) ‘Work intensity’ working- members (excluding students) theoretical part- habitual interview definitions work-intensity) contributory ignoring term; exposition): I); J); K) decomposed Danish Italy entirely attributable Italian visualizes regions) mechanical regarding causality (For incorrect perspective; tentative Countries infer ‘trade-off’ Belgium) Ireland Hungary ‘average’ exception (at group; (IE HU) fighting 7.3. thought ‘efficiency spending’? Is range way? transfers) allow judgement ‘efficiency’ independent variable) variables) Visual inspection learns ‘borderline case’ transfer intend 39 Putting reconnecting functioning architecture grants Previous reflections difficult ‘room manoeuvre’ 1995 existent devolved papers Pestieau Lefebvre Perelman Space 8. quest justice strategy chosen aspired vice virtue debt taxation instead went Research deficit required corresponded precisely 1995) twofold bolstered motivation parties comply entering Eurozone paralyzing state’s assumed tackled saving systemic century strictly broadened double track state: goal setting reserves pedagogically visualized Fund; generalization democratic first-pillar Towards insufficiently square met head-on reassessed intrinsically overoptimistic Simplifying matters implicitly postulated precedence societal coming disputable: Many confronting climate claims naïve think settled straightjacket paying parametric Berghman Peeters rightly stress learn far? elements: negligible; neglected bonus-systems indicates ‘volume’-effect ‘prize’-effect (both is: broad-based adapts systematically expectancy served: hand? 9. Preparing Policies implementing incrementally scale mixed: market(s) catch More ‘the ageing’ expectations implementation Insufficient areas cost-efficiency During proved usefulness absorber (though consequences) complacent write ‘being glorifying reputation ago’ (Lefebvre 11) echoing warnings (2005) Concurrently incisive embarked underscore Realizing require adoption Acknowledgement Kim Lievens Ron Diris Jan Vanthuyne Bea Muriel Dejemeppe Dirk Moens Diana Graeve Michel Breda Vincent Greet Koen Gijs Dekker Patrick Lusyne Willem Adema Esther Deman Jef Maes Leen Steven Frederic Taveirne Tuba Bircan Marie-Jeanne Festjens Karen Evelyne Hens Erik Anthony Langenbergh Natascha Mechelen Cis Caes Stephen Windross punctual usual disclaimers apply Bibliography Adnet Bernadette ‘La sécurité au l’assainissement des finances publiques l’emploi’ in: (ed Het einde budgettair tekort Analyse recente evolutie Belgische openbare financiën (1990-2000) Geschiedenis Openbare Financiën België Deel VI Brussel: Boeck 149-168 Atkinson Barnes Eric Marlier Brian Nolan Indicators: Exclusion Oxford: Oxford Press Jos Hans Pension Protection Overview Challenges Text prepared workshop occasion honorary John Myles KU February http://soc kuleuven be/ceso/pensioenbeleid Bestaan er nog financiële vallen werkloosheid bijstand België? 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Potentiële tewerkstellingseffecten hervorming uittredestelsels’ 22: 93-101 Hendrik Financiële prikkels werkhervatting werklozen leefloontrekkers België: heden verleden Documentatienota 2009-1486 Centrale Bedrijfsleven werkloosheidsvallen 2011-0189 Paul Rijksdienst Kinderbijslag Werknemers maandelijkse 2010’ Focus 2011-2 Joeri Guillaume Ann Lecluyse Hervé Avalosse Cornelis Stephan Devriese Carine Voorde effecten maximumfactuur consumptie toegankelijkheid gezondheidszorg 80A KCE- Federaal Gezondheidszorg ASISIP Annual Pensions Long-term http://socialprotection eu/files_db/208 /asisp_ANR09_Belgium eu/files_db/884/ asisp_ANR10_Belgium Jaarverslag Brussel actieve Europees perspectief Den Uyl lecture Also Stichting Uyl-lezing spoor Uyl- lezingen 1988-2008 Strategische keuzes beleid ‘beleid onderzoek’ ‘Geluk politiek: pleidooi helder denken’ Studium Generale 2011-2012 Gent: ‘Disappointing trends: blame?’ 21: 450-471 ongelijkheden gezondheid Vlayen Joan Katrien Vanthomme Cécile Camerlin Julien Piérart Denise Walckiers Laurence Kohn Imgard Vinck Alain Denis Pascal Hermann Leonard eerste stap meten performantie gezondheidszorgsysteem KCE-reports 128A KCE hervormingen verzorgingsstaat: kroniek’ 3de trimester 403-456 appendix starting A1 ‘active’ situation numerator STASIM Bogaerts) Part-time maintenance 1999-2000 benefit) 18% 29% 146 109 117 102 133 27% 142 58 121 (bestaansminimum 136 96 119 -13% 128 17% 118 Definitions: pov = wp (‘work- households’) wr (‘work-rich wo (‘other pwp pwr pwo Belgium; are: 5(wrA wrB 5(wpA wpB 5(woA woB 5( pwpA pwpB pwrA pwrB pwoA pwoB old) povB povA ( (wrB wrA )( pwp) Whereby to: pwp)(woB woA accounting technique indicating A3 Cash Benefits relationship (except post-transfer include collected cutoff equivalised thick estimated regression employing variable thin give bounds vertical bars graphs 1-A3 Reduction refers population) lifted (work-poor) 45 restricting Computations A4