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Intereconomics 2012 | 4 200 Forum The Welfare State After the Great Recession economic crisis has given rise to signifi cant challenges welfare state Given that expenses account for a large proportion of all spending in member countries European Union reducing government means cutting measures Yet social protection particular unemployment insurance benefi ts and minimum income support cantly softened impact millions individuals global recession calls into question fi nancial viability current programmes is being used by some as an opportunity roll back permanently present discusses opportunities after DOI: 10 1007/s10272-012-0422-y Anton C Hemerijck Frank Vandenbroucke Social Investment Euro Crisis: Necessity Unifying Policy Concept We rst review three sequences policy responses have been pursued since 2008 Comparing performance EU states during shows generous are no anathema competitiveness; second section we therefore revisit argument productive factor third addresses importance macroeconomic symmetry argue agreement on meaning “a Europe” past often viewed fair weather product rapidly becoming imperative exactly because its relevance effi ciency quality investment do matter stability eurozone conclude needs pact objectives Europe 2020 Strategy provide useful framework reconciling scal consolidation longterm provided governance serves Three Waves Crisis Management gone through phases management In immediate aftermath Lehman Brothers collapse wave exemplifi ed more or less Keynesian solutions rapid fall demand pushed authorities ECB broad range interventions including liquidity credit- For where collective coverage risks comprehensive accounts 16 30 per cent GDP repercussions mark particularly serious “stress test” 2008-2012 already redrawn boundaries between markets Will like Depression “great infl ation” predecessors signal new reconfi gure relegitimise policy? Or casualty cascade political aftershocks crisis? deepening euro 2010 reveals how profoundly interconnected economy become at same time diffi cult institutions hard times All put table from strict austerity aggressive stimulation banking union etc highly contested With national all-time low indecision leaves dangerous vacuum heart integration project believe “joint-decision trap” domestic reform can be avoided There room realistic pace adjustment (more symmetrical slower than foreseen) associated with reformoriented strategy anchored improved budgetary ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre Economics 201 Contributors this Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Netherlands Katholieke Leuven Belgium Torben M Andersen Aarhus University Denmark Philippe Pochet Trade Institute (ETUI) Brussels Christophe Degryse Gaetano Basso California Davis USA Mathias Dolls Study Labor (IZA) Bonn Germany Werner Eichhorst Thomas Leoni Austrian Economic Research (WIFO) Vienna Austria Andreas Peichl Peter Taylor-Gooby Kent UK um-skill work shift towards post-industrial labour opened up job women but deindustrialisation come declining shares steady lifetime jobs Changing family structures gender roles longer education spells later childbirth single parenthood created tensions life raised demands care children frail elderly “new” risk profi le exclusion triggered growing polarisation high-skill job-rich dual-earner families low-skill work-poor male-breadwinner single-parent households Simultaneously scope vis-à-vis these developments became narrower rather wider Capital mobility did not unleash dumping across observers feared there denying Stability enhancing help stabilise besieged Between automatic stabilisers were allowed cushion This response was complemented number extend short-term working arrangements sometimes linked training activation incentives December 2009 punctuated Greek debt took root governments had forced bail out systemic banks redefi ned profl igacy requiring tough prolonged public Troubled such Greece Ireland Portugal Spain started pushing market deregulation cuts civil servant salaries pension t freezes retirement age rises retrenchments transfers services Only United Kingdom under Cameron coalition retrenchment predicated ideological narrative about dependency By 2011 entered critical phase overhang sovereign crises came threaten Rising premiums EU’s most vulnerable suggested establish encompassing “fi compact” failed impress deemed yet another “too little too late” stopgap compromise Moreover many believed across-the-board budgets set stage double-dip What makes predicament worrying monetary practically left proactive adjustment: nances distressed interest rates close zero Politically caught Scylla Charybdis On one hand pressures defi cit reduction constrain space other disenchanted electorates increasingly unwilling abide promises leaders agreed supranational rescue packages rules Revisiting “Social Productive Factor” Long before environment changing Population ageing fertility early overburdened systems Technological change reduced routine-based low- mediIntereconomics 202 Growth Pact increased pressure Although drivers common they create existing repertoires trigger vary country While successful updating their transformations preceding others fared well 1 decades pigeonhole terms blackand- white dichotomy heterogeneous disparate uneven substance employment centred board emphasis “making pay” provision fl exibility However turn appeared various guises which situated continuum “productivist” bent increasing supply productivity “capacitating” suggest “all well” northern competitive strengths Scandinavian economies recognised outcome long-term process capacitating contrast competitiveness gaps southern interact two-tiered outdated mainly passive contracts biased pensioners inhibiting both adequate educated youth singleparent wish confi ne merely “productive input” important returns reduce search costs foster cient matches Well-organised universal potentially enhances distorts Similarly bargaining permits macroeconomically responsive wage setting Even balanced together worker participation works councils contribute competiveness engaging workers production processes Finally stabilises activity it sus- A Hemerijck: Oxford Press; When States Eurocrisis Meet in: Sociologica No (with comments U Ascoli -J Barbier J Beckfi eld G Bonoli Palme) tains effective kind Keynesianism backdoor proved functional credit crunch bankruptcy Security against adverse effects illness disability old divorce childbearing value citizens se also society burden poverty instability would if It naïve deny principles advance ciency-equity frontier access available 2 today far demographic conditions post-war era expansion sustainability hinges future taxpayers 3 Next fundamental mission protect should mobilising potential mitigating atypical lack Labour decisions contingent health comparative analysis regimes supports plausibility claim gains investing child vocational seldom taken seriously cost-benefi analyses options Imperative Defi ning choices made institutional isolation Institutions explain provisions target groups nanced tax sys- Esping-Andersen D l i e Myles (eds ): Why need New 2002 S r s : generational confl ict reconsidered Journal Vol 12 pp 5-21; b L Saxenian R n P H K Hautamäki: Individualized Service Provision State: Lessons Special Education Finland Report prepared SITRA Helsinki 2010; F Vleminckx: Disappointing Poverty Trends: Is Blame? Vo 21 5 450-471; Nelson Stephens: Do policies produce better jobs? N More B – m Towards state? Ideas Bristol Press 205-234 T d h Palme: Sustainable Policies Ageing Europe: human capital Stockholm 2006 Future Studies 203 tems run and/or private actors Some legacies able incorporate innovations instance impossible assess childhood mothers’ participate supported equality parental leave To extent service oriented requires professionalisation administration respect collection complementarities applies relationship undeniable success inception 1958 served expand Borrowing Robert Gilpin’s phrase Maurizio Ferrera aptly captured “Keynes home Smith abroad” limited EU-wide high growth stemming liberalisation “unencumbered” maturation 1945 Now exposed earlier division home-grown progressive sustainable Current levels without possibility reverting country-specifi c strategies based currency devaluations imply (or ciency) strengthens prosperity stagnation) whole vice versa failure regime lies today’s conundrum original theory EMU assumption ECB’s mandate price equally strong commitment enforced raise among Enhanced competition subsequently translate greater force democratic launch incisive blaming inevitability architects short conceived re Mapping Components EU: Critical Analysis Institutional Patchwork E 2020: EU? Lang 45-68; p Political Economy International Relations Princeton NJ 1987 355 Milward Rescue Nation London 2000 Routledge naturally structural weakness happy equilibrium forthcoming Instead confronted destabilising cits Italy; housing bubbles Spain; surpluses plausible assume along contributed slowing down insider-biased Paradoxically surplus Nordic concerned intensifi momentum 1990s Over decade clear high-tax high-spend Northern performed Lisbon Agenda indicators even underscores fact polities afford well-organised want simple one-sided causalities appears notably Southern comparatively ineffi Figure summarises developed 6 leading conclusion level Latvia regard (together Italy apply criteria maps average results obtained PISA tests 15-year-old students rate cohort 24 29 share population 25 64 bracket upper secondary 20 7 Figures only illustrate compared EU15 employment; underscore huge agenda confronting Spaniards 25- 34-year-old lower education; Vandenbroucke: challenge Union’s objective necessity luxury OSE Opinion Paper 11 July www ose be/EN As shown mapping illustrates different educational 204 six young people Vandenbroucke8 argues disequilibrium within may formulate precisely correct assert ages tied expectancy similar manner reasons then reasoning holds attainment If asymmetry Spanish retiring German unsustainable German/Nordic considered long observation comes big required area necessitates convergence parameters) disputable underlying raises complex cognitive normative issues But basic consensus needed those arguments words model compatible degree necessary sustain Today much attention paid rightly so shortterm Here focus longer-term perspective Members face interrelated trade-offs determine sustainability: organise members 9 Symmetry refers output correlated Flexibility relates interregional international country’s “internal” capacity case asymmetric shock Less trade-off mitigated possible facing aim temporary stabilisation redistribution richer poorer regions: free lunch diversion development cannot pursue 8 op Grauwe: Monetary Comparative Effi Spending Results Employment Rate (24-29) Upper Secondary Note: Regression lines drawn structure presentation causality; correlation education/employment rate: EU27: -0 39; EU17: 66; EU10: 47 Source: Own calculations Eurostat data LFS SILC BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE ES GR FR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL RO SI SK FI SE IS NO HV 0 15 35 expenditure % 2007 At_risk_of_poverty total PT DKCZ CR 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 400 420 440 460 480 500 520 540 Average 2000_2009 (24_29) 40 50 Share (25_64) (20_64) EU17 EU10 (ex_comm ) 205 reciprocity Jean Pisani-Ferry10 issue treated shared temporarily accept somewhat higher ation make adjustments maintained uses leniency continue must avoid overkill according Pisani-Ferry They settlements above observed (including wages add) rational Reciprocity implies regaining shouldered partners Economically that; socially politically disruptive Pisani-Ferry’s extrapolated larger imbalances achieving condition deliberately coined our proposal Europe-wide approach pact” keen see “pact” emerging notion sense embedded proposed Conclusions rests stock (early lifelong learning) flow serving use (through supporting female active facilitating promote exible security course) dimension traditional complementary emphasise elsewhere panacea ills eschew easy rhetoric “win-win policies” internal icts arise when pursuing y euro-area rebalancing bruegel org 22 May Working Ibid preventive monitoring forecloses address disequilibria via stabilising what currently tries achieve “six-pack” does unifi superstate availability How capacities redress divergences intrusive surveillance willing go each neutral context constitute determining order idea determined while presumably wrong priori evident far-reaching harmonisation guarantee avenues outcomes These open-ended intrinsic any however remain unresolved badly point position basics Clarifi cation really goal Admittedly reaching fraught culties “internal exibility” married securities relations migration? Are fear misuse igate delaying reform? extent? 206 Public Sector Part Solution Problem? Immediately onset sector Both very actively Commission OECD IMF spoke coordinated expansionary consequence affected budget reactions discretionary boost Large combination initial soon independent concerns forefront responded yield Treasury rose several purpose insecurity consequences business cycle downturns sharing ensure suffer disproportionately changes beyond direct control period prior successes extended questioned At challenged globalisation shaken belief causes attributed failures excesses proven crisis-free thus step turned narrow margins least part offer substantive nition (and EU) deployed obviously corollary conditional popular trust handle interdependent world Currently witness backlash seen “the (as action) France rising anti-austerity protests emerged malaise alternance now opens possiblility Democrats Christian Liberals lled fragmentation anti-EU populism trend right certainly Already middle class fears falling behind invoked nostalgic “golden-age” paradise lost pitted alleged globalising ambitions Again adapted aligning perspectives investments medium-term mutually supportive reformist gives acquis cherish credible juncture discount massive achievements over half century unprecedented widening regional twenty-seven creating community million accompanied promoting democracy securing peace barely conceivable start reconstruction could “caring virtuous circle solidarity trusted 207 whether increases turns permanent Safety Net safety net main channel cushions shocks system plays role disposable incomes mechanisms individual cance aggregate form term stabiliser summary concept revenues expenditures situation g will deteriorating absorbed Thus crucial absorb ve facts worth noting: I size/strength closely related (see 1); tax-fi tend result discussion changed solution problem Accordingly Many implemented implementing tighten savings estimates planned tightening 2011-2013 corresponds 2% one-third two-thirds reductions Despite expected continues evolved inferred recent developments? Does previously recognised? arrangements? following worked primarily so-called noting despite steep decrease increase standard inequality remained fairly constant cushioning diversifying ability perform task unconditional met accommodate severe errors consolidated reforms cope demographics insuffi exacerbated brought problems open effect few exceptions itself exit Such nance relies maintain (in sector) OECD: Outlook Publishing Gini coeffi See http://epp eurostat ec europa eu/portal/page/portal/sdi/ indicators/theme3 Size Automatic Stabilisers size measured 2005 relative percentage Sources: oecd-ilibrary org; rouard é Measuring cyclically-adjusted balances paper 434 AUS AUT BEL CAN DEU DNK ESP FIN FRA GBR IRL ITA JPN NLD NOR NZL POR SWE 45 208 weakened Somewhat paradoxically praised disregarded micro relation possibly strengthened jeopardising inevitable ict? Errors precondition well-functioning prudent ensuring good absorption bad buffer function muting uctuations fulfi upward gross 2) 1970s 1980s two around 75% noteworthy spite favourable develop- Using unchanged seems systematic pattern initially weak tended get stronger whereas muted stabilisers; Va Noord ; II serve positive riskaverse agents Private alternatives type imperfect incomplete III hence consumption IV mute V rule-based inducing Hence require up-to-date information played advantage automatically react swiftly overlooked debate devoted dose correctly Furthermore attractive properties (insurance) (aggregate distribution) source renewed wake widely argued macro design by-product entitlements nancing years incentive concern implications Andersen: Role Active Fiscal Stabilization CESifo 51 511-547 stabilizers 230 o u distribution IZA Discussion 4917 Debt Countries 1970-2013 2011-13 forecast org/statistics database 100 120 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 209 shrinking pensions shrink undertaken suffi assessed overall upon backward arising forward depicted showing indicator improvement 5% stressing known quite lacking top produced policymakers fail balance revenue generated cover intertemporal constraint satisfi World Bank: Averting Old Age Washington 1994; Countries: Challenge Paris 1996; IMF: transition 2004 137-180; Commission: ment Due led further ratio refl ects Budget debts display tendency bias; frequent bias underscored considering (2007) subsequent separate 3) cases critically notable namely Iceland relatively explained (for 42 points 13 points) major reason backward-looking Most Developments During Financial Gross Sustainability Indicator S2 Update 4/2006 Finances 3/2011 _50 150 EST KOR CHE SVK CZE SVN POL ISR HUN PRT OEC ISL GRC _5 EL 210 pairing decreases improvements strained sensitive reduces cial coping puts strains relevant experience persistent 1970s/1980s onwards sluggish lessons contributing making strengthening persistence slow recovery Ljungqvist Sargent10 describe “time bomb” operate ciently tranquil turbulence easily translates latter caused reservation due depreciate skills nd dependent inertia hinders restructuring asserted12 frictional induce turbulent j q v rgent: Unemployment Dilemma 106 1998 514- 550 multiple equilibria arises taking countered costly effectiveness reinforcing oppositely Swedish Review 39 1043- 1070 warning signals rates; inclined push visible expensive bond practical purposes identical solidity 4) until spreads adversely late reinforce speeding dynamics having expansive Sweden succeeded consolidating addressed show detrimental wellfunctioning state; widens faced freedom counteract concluded consolidate undertake though deteriorated cause zone manoeuvre Past paradoxical Persistence Net9 achieved cost im- builds Collective sharing: 211 marginalisation Concluding Remarks providing degrees Consolidation creates neglected themselves situations underlines revealed aws curtailed worsened Policymakers downplaying blame game backfi ring involving core ordinary appear solely explanation advanced Lindbeck who norms counteracting norm self-supporting counters scheme Allowing endogenous depending (possibly lag) positively falls downturn eroded non-employment involved assessing empirical strength hypothesis responsiveness involves (volatility) (persistence) clearly minimise evidence deep year 18 events 1970-2007 recovered pre-crisis instances occured ten regularities linking endeavour metrics imprecise characterise summarise cross-plot measure outlier removed sample indication erodes own foundation Clearly Lindbeck: Hazardous Dynamics American Papers Proceedings 9- 15; Nyberg W Norms Association 2-3 2003 533-542 autocorrelation sourceoecd 95 00 212 last enquire whereby justifi programme hardly convincing look explanations place constraints secondly prosaically From Response Deregulation Prerequisite gain view conducted Laulom et al examined 2008-2011 2010-2012 covered Clauwaert Schömann studies differ minor details convergent elements emerge: appearance distinct periods outbreak nature chronological sequence noticeable break starting dynamic fashion excessively brutal (unemployment plummeting purchasing power rm closures Degryse4 his draws sudden swing end marked virtually succession “structural” Upon consideration touch aspects law grouped Mazuyer Te Triomphe Legislation Europe? ETUI Brief 2/2012 http://www etui org/Publications2/ Policy-Briefs/European-Economic-Employment-and-Social-Policy/ How-has-the-crisis-affected-social-legislation-in-Europe w Schömann: National Law Reforms: Exercise 04 Degryse: La nouvelle gouvernance économique européenne Courrier du CRISP Since week announcing plans affecting legislation justify systematically refer construction overlooked; hear repetition discourse concerning “modernise” differing models) “save” them) crisis; creation attempt carry (the semester arsenal multilateral Plus Budgetary specifi recommendations recently culminated emanating Council Presidency establishment article briefl reviews adopted elds covers EU27 thereby overview areas limiting picture frequently mentioned (Greece Italy) radical call foundations constructed emerges launched characterised nite suggesting inspiration derives roots * Translation French Kathleen Llanwarne According Mr Van Rompuy link statutory expectancy; lecho be/actualite/economie_politique_europe/Pensions_toute_l_Europe_ doit_reformer_dit_Van_Rompuy 9207088-3323 art?ckc+1 Degryse* Programmed Dismantling “European Model” 213 paragraphs limitations exclusively placed Insofar topic subject subsidiarity principle eruption principally ministers tackled decided voices “non-fi nancial” construct dealing questions cally pertaining series parametric 2000s actual coincide ways reached acquired entitlement full pension) motion (2010- 2012) aimed radically altering built maximum limit bringing moveable scale accordance factors 2011-2012 alone abolished normal intro- Math Pochet: Les en débats acteurs méthode Revue belge de sécurité sociale 2001 345- 362 Pensions: Debate k Whit Pension 21st Century Redrawing Public-Private 44-63 Networks Pensions Participation organised Interests Policy-making Process 307-335; Na Turmoil Owing Key Messages (ed 119-147 four categories industrial redundancy procedures Table savage numerous Announced Adopted Reforms Industrial Relations/Collective Bargaining Systems Certain Aspects decentralisation bargaining; types (+*) (+**); MoU: signed Memorandum Understanding Reform systems1 Changes individual/ dismissal contracts2 + +** Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic +* Estonia MoU3 Hungary Lithuania Luxembourg Poland Romania +/+** Slovakia Slovenia 214 offi counterpart employers ignored example Portugal) erga omnes extension sectoral agreements authorise ever derogations successive fundamentally called today; impose binding dismantled underway reinstate twofold differentiation category persons receipt supplementary enjoy choose retire broadly speaking skilled professionals whose expectancies choice lower-skilled precarious enjoyment shorter Choices essentially additional sources (dependent qualifi cations career) Factors reality content advocated certain economists breadth Explain Developments? mainstream described compels adopt Vendramin Valenduc: Métiers vieillissement au travail Une analyse des résultats la cinquième enquête sur les (EWCS 2010) duced ranging 61 established “ought” facto introduction moving gradual projections lead 71 2050 An desire encouraging here pensions) none announced regarded representing Protection Know existence recognition inherently parties employer “market” gave branch classic unions protracted struggles employers’ “opposite numbers” gained resting pedestal rights consisted improve previous looks indicate backsliding contract equated commercial operating equal footing trade Observatoire Français Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE): réformes retraites dans crise Document l’OFCE 2010-17 215 developments14) received criticism introduce reforms;15 Degryse16 (Germany) nine (Belgium) this: efforts curb criterion judged Indeed comparison apparently eyes indexation mechanism unit indeed imposed assistance) neither solving nor boosting might be? ect strategic (central bankers DG ECFIN) window oppor- 14 Goodbye Bismarck? Politics Continental First control?11 calling “reform systems”12 (59% 2007) 9% GDP? “consistent tability allows employment-enhancing investment”?13 why unconvincing likely medium adoption take generally extremely slightest ripple claimed complete opposite direction proper apparent “Bismarckian” ones best resist quarter stand performers gratifi “specifi recommendations” relating formation (Luxembourg Governance Fragile Eurozone CEPS 346 Union: Recommendation Broad Guidelines Member Community (2005 2008) Offi 205/28 (2008Q2-2012Q1) Seasonally adjusted Malta 2008Q2 2012Q1 216 stituted attempts goals saw launching “open methods coordination” (OMC) weaknesses intended predominance “imperatives” promoted ECFIN stages attaining broken beginning 2004/2005 (particularly arrival José Manuel Barroso President) OMCs favour vision gradually reinstated purely coincided right-wing centre-right 2007-2008 2009-2010 medium- “Europe 2020” replace bring priority headings collectively “meta-priority” route sought documents legislative initiatives treaty amendments ultimate path ascent central hesitate dictate Draghi’s letter Spain) give expression preference nutshell busy “economic hive” version preference: henceforth variables decentralise weight erode privatise forth Conclusion responding 2008-2009 embarked tunity turning model” variable absence genuine 17 productivity) “competitive (currency) devaluations” days converted regulation” governing devaluation elds; application represents archetype day Mario Draghi President Central Bank believes dead” overhaul powerful uential mechanically things optimum (“transfer union”) 19 transformation wishes pacts majority left-wing centre successively place: 1997 con- Convergence économies européennes quel bilan ans après ? 2012-04 d’analyse stratégique Verdun: asymmetrical Perceptions Authorities Partners Integration 1996 59-81; Euros Europeans: Model Society Cambridge Existing Theories Predicament (forthcoming) What’s EU2020? Issue Policy-Briefs/European-Social-Policy/What-s-wrong-with- EU2020 Model: Evolving Players Strategies ETUI-REHS 79-99 217 dictated circumstances Their contrary dismantle features averting full-scale deterioration lowest strongest ght evidently just resolution long-haul vigorously enacted enthusiasm dismantling mode operation commit energies voluntary cohesion broadest designated targeted EMU’s hegemonic forms (wage protection) lieu thing (2010-2012) relate line usual issued principal states’ centre-right) socio-economic (crisis worsening expectations 23 royal road imposing hard-hitting painful witnessing offensive dialogue reference crisis” way expectation progressives everything reveal weakening neoliberal doctrine theoretical underpinnings advocates regulation stricter controls Peichl* Effects Recent Market Arrangements Across Socio-Economic Groups grateful Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) acknowledges excellent research assistance Lukas Tockner authors Second RDW Conference Geneva 6-8 losses tax-benefi sets O rg Distributional labor-demand shocks: Tax Finance 118-138 affect varying extents; varied greatly 218 cross-country variation unequal differences deserve careful scrutiny Theoretical Background dispute magnitude contraction attenuated considerably duration actions sides general action included low-income bound asymmetrically Job loss leads sharp decline unemployed families; marginally stagnating real resulting enhanced presence in-work replacement immediately starts integrated ineffective (replacement) margin exclusive means-tested stringent means-testing obliges sell un- “quality” protected dualism “both market” Patterns nets contributions distinguished inactive redundancies Of record earnings xed-term holders substantial waiting interrupted addition part-time employees low-wage draw earnings-related Apart inclusive character generosity evaluate solid either meet claims (i) records entrants (ii) monthly (iii) self-em- Beyond Eurosclerosis 59 409-461 445 219 ployed actually practice Access short-time schemes safeguard tenure Minimum eligible depends household-related testing time-limited restrictions play child-related reliable calculated typical allowances unsuitable relief Stabilisation transfer determines compares composition One note simulation exercise instead assuming utilisation controlled experiments proportional household (income shock) modelling analysing typically losing suffering usually rigid consider unemploy- 32 227-256; crisis: US vs 96 3-4 279-294 personal taxes payroll Computations endogeneity Our highest 56% (53%) (48%) values found (25%) (28%) (29%) exception seem Decomposition Income Coeffi Scenarios Country Ranking coefficient Federal SIC Benefits EURO SW SP IR GE 220 cients (82%) followed (68%) (62%) (61%) spectrum below 34% include (23%) (31%) (33%) Regarding distributional quantiles quantile follow Eastern modelled reweighting characteristics newly Contribution Discretionary Measures easing improving non-standard qualifying (e Sweden) prolongation Romania) sub-groups workforce realm crisis-related strengthen Ministerial Meeting background document session 1: beyond: facilitate (re-)employment featured prominently widespread reaction train employed intensify 27 steps placement invest retraining reinforced entrepreneurship component complementing discussed countercyclical especially proportionality reacts absolute Estimates historically person resources Looking cyclicality detailed nds totally unresponsive cyclical represent Conversely jobcreation Another geared innovative Austria’s encourage skill prevent prominent Generosity ease basically interaction motivation rely annual Cazes Ve ILO 2009: Tackling 2009; 2009… 221 Belgium’s lesser Italy’s France’s reliance predated experienced scarcely attractiveness amount subsidisation symmetric Numerous explicitly marginal outlooks (such workers) weaker segments spread equitably force: layoffs concentrates small hours partial rms keeping subsidy layoff short-work shortages rm-specifi knowledge) separation surprising regular Low-qualifi tasks knowledge Cahuc Carcillo Hijzen rc Short-time Work Good Method Keep Down? CEPR 8214 Venn10 OECD11 stabilised segmentation Dual Markets segmented preliminary EPL index severity assessment regulations 199012 strictest standards carried exceeding twothirds deviation observe converging path: contemporaneous crosscountry measurement non-trivial two-tier affects dimensions probability status transitions nally differentials Going detail looked plot (on side) 81 positions negatively (ρ=-0 72) steadily z Venn: Short-Time Schemes 2008-09 Migration 115 2010… Marx Devisscher Marterbauer Edere rd Vanhore Stabiliser: study Parliament Reports 31 222 (15 countries) 33 34 recession-related quarterly Force Survey representative declined (compared 6% employment); (9 4%) reported slightly (5 dropped 6%) lot 1% comparing quarters) drop 2008Q2- 2010Q2 2010Q1 outperformed noticed (among Boeri Bruecker13 OECD14) different: again Bruecker: Benefi Revisited: 5635 mean once hires explains regarding suggests coincide: former literature Figari analysed using EUROMOD simulations D’Amuri16 interesting Italian younger older non-dual dual group difference be- stress 257-286 ’ 155- 180 Based classifi premia probabilities presented rankings Non-dual always excluding Temporary Workers Percentage Total Dependent statistics Transition Probability Permanent Positions (left panel); EU-SILC 2004-2007 longitudinal (right panel) _ probability: temp perm Regular Contracts Index 223 Establishing avoids lags fiscal stimuli prepare overcome xedterm prevented element working-age course appropriate disincentives evaluated contribution well-targeted timely eventually pro-cyclical impacts Growing otherwise hamper counter uncertainties carefully regularly check rule-driven quasi-automatic helpful referring deciding maintenance (non-subsidised) dualisms regulatory divide agency models “unifi contract” tween middle-aged (around 37 2%) recipients hold holding problematic Taking inherent taxation lag phase-out recover subsidies trained uniform Coverage Age: Nondual Living Condition Non_dual 36 224 entail strikingly Mediterranean ambition “social paying succeeding embedding British stated sentence June Emergency deal “decisively recovery” totals £110 3bn equivalent cut 1921-1922 apart exceptional 43 moved command War areas:5 Non-pension disabled Housing Child frozen credits save onefi fth Overall Vi Kersbergen Hylands: Administration 338-353 HM Treasury: Chancellor’s Speech hmtreasury gov uk/junebudget_speech htm (accessed 28 2011) Cmnd 7892 October http://cdn hm-treasury uk/sr2010_completereport pdf Ta r-Gooby Stoke: Coalition Quarterly 82 4-15; Yeates Haux Jawad Defence social-policy uk/downloads/idow Beveridge Overboard? Government Permanently Restructure government’s combines non-state for-profi providers local diversity redistributive poor bearing broader trajectory wholesale return secure helps basis Those Canada Zealand examples restructurings restoring sustaining fell sharply commonality embodied investment” logic spillover Maastricht Treaty onto quantity method coordination departure Taken Obinger Starke Moser Bogedan Obinger- f Transformation Starke: Radical Retrenchment Basingstoke Palgrave; r-Gooby: Root Branch Restructuring Achieve Major Cuts: Programme 46 61-81 225 partments staff employs men 18- 24-year-olds gures cutbacks shifting frugal unclear envisage nearly 2017 spender G7 Japan history reverse money committed reversing occasions Two maintain: rstly opposition perhaps junior partner voice forceful resistance revised downwards Secondly largest precipitate 1920s package introduced strike Various episodes cutback listed lasting reverted eight hopes succeed ambitious striking prove episode revert driven demography Y Cooper: Women bear brunt yvettecooper com/women-bear-brunt-of-budget-cuts 2011); Women’s Group: Impact ce Statistics: Statistics Tables A02 A06 ons uk/ons/publications/re-reference- tables html?edition=tcm%3A77-222441 Responsibility: March 8303 Chart http://budgetresponsibility uk/fi scal-sustainability-report-july-2011/; Database April imf org/external/ pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/weodata/index aspx Congress: Call Day Action tuc uk/economy/tuc-20184-f0 cfm; “Interview Times” Times ft com/cms/ s/0/7ab1d982-a42c-11e1-84b1-00144feabdc0 html#axzz1vgcp3QH7 earning £150 000 (about taxpayers) VAT authoritative estimate indicates decile bottom deciles lose intermediate Older seven Cuts Health (NHS) schools overseas aid cash roughly one-fi NHS retained pre-school school-leaving universities colleges Local responsible de- O’Dea: Who loses cuts? ifs uk/publications/5313 rowne: http:// Studies: Green General Expenditure Fund: September org/external/pubs/ft/ weo/2011/02/weodata/index 1982 1984 1986 1988 1992 1994 2014 2016 226 deeper ts; move third) cost-effi responsibility away expanding sphere responsibility; variegated patterns accepted undermine solidaristic Cash Under passed favourably rst-tier remains uprated indices involve partially offset poorest 66 2018 67 median 2025 subsidised second-tier funded continued Employees enrolled opt extensive 2013 combined Universal Credit simpler includes Seekers Allowance Support Credits withdrawal earned generate Entitlement Projections (IFS) (mainly Institute: Implications Pensioner https://www pensionspolicyinstitute uk/uploadeddocuments/Events/2011events/20110711_PPI_ AgeUK_Pensioner_Poverty_Seminar_writeup alongside underlie unravel reasons: time); empower stakeholders forces politics Planned (%GDP) Achieved Outcome Comment 1921-2 Geddes Axe 8% 1925 govt 1929 outweighed 1930 1931 4% 1933 Made 1936 Cost centrally locally Loan 1979 govt) 1983 Mainly 1980-90 Thatcher “Rolling state” 3% 1993 Election 1991 1993-9 Major/New Further Labour’s 2007-10 Brown (effi savings) Two-thirds Overtaken stimulus Episodes 1921-2010 Peacock Wiseman: 1890-1955 1967 Unwin; Hood: Cutback Bureaucracies 1989 Hood Emerson Dixon: Hard Output 1855-1965 1972 ukpublicspending co uk/uk_art19_derivation_of_uk_public_spending_for_1900_1950 html 153 227 variant contracting “any provider” provider”) relaxation responsibilities GP practices managing devolved £80bn fewer targets repeated denials Minister’s shape moves arms multinational medical competitors sub-contract GPs ranges priorities Much depend continuing decentralising school initiated massively expanded funding object effectively takes them powers encouraged enter Regulation curriculum teachers’ pay relaxed (infl 2011-12 cent) hard-pressed divert Sure Start fallen 16-19 college outside schooling (16) continuation locality fees £9 indications applications (slightly women) forcing prestigious noted consumer retail CPI ignores charges living IFS uprating (at line) parents emphatic orientation ected proposals acquire tribunal adjudicates unfair Disability restructured severely Capability Test tightened contracted agencies intention removing claimers saving £1bn capable Services: Contracting Out For-profi Providers Prime Minister signalled “presumption” providers” Open Services White reform: presumption “wherever competing service” accountability rewer rowne Briefi ng 116 uk/bns/bn116 Working-Age Commentary C121 uk/comms/comm121 Woods: Ye Cameron: revolution February telegraph uk/news/politics/8337237/David-Cameron-promises- public-sector-revolution Cabinet ce: cmnd 8415 cabinetoffi uk/sites/default/fi les/resources/open-publicservices- white-paper 228 regressive doubling opposed compounds references Big Society: culture mutuality obligation” concentrated focussed (health clubs religious groupings aid)25 enormously diverse closest (employment advocacy services) receive 26 substitute Progress ministerial decision shifts O’Dea Hugo Young lecture November conservatives com/News/Speeches/2009/11/David_ Cameron_The_Big_Society Lyon Sepulveda: enterprises: approaches directions Enterprise 83-94; Mohan: Third 62 tsrc ac uk/LinkClick aspx?fi leticket=izLuarcAwMs% 3D&tabid=500 Voluntary Organisations: Funding ncvo-vol uk/sfp/ bigsociety “The Sectors” Baldock 322 organisations 32-33; Organisations Woodhouse: Cameron’s hit Evening Standard Non-Universal directed careers transport importantly communities’ 68 deprived tier shire districts corresponding Price Waterhouse Coopers’ “negative” region mergers contractors completed contains Direct replaced bulk claimer months trialled succeeds key Whether contractual obligations enforceable calculate differently obvious one-tenth technical reasons21 judges House Commons Library: Settlement 11/16 parliament uk/briefi ngpapers/commons/lib/ Coopers: Sectoral Regional Squeeze Association: lga uk/lga/core/page do?pageId=16647103 Review… B6 229 decide spend constituted semi-autonomous staffi admission considerable sums parliamentary extra restoration Perhaps introduces winning lobby Unravelling provoke party Any contractedout held restrict intervene players exceptionally embark writing plus largely political: bite direction? homelessness feel insecure businesses gaining privatised sectors abandoned he rescued